Below is my critique of one of the major sources of propaganda to be used by Congress this legislative session to shove temporary foreign workers down our throats. I will highlight where the report leaks meaningful information and interject my worldly sarcasm where required.
Science and Engineering Indicators, a biennial report series published by the National Science Board, is designed to provide a broad base of quantitative information about U.S. science, engineering, and technology for use by public and private policymakers and other interested parties.
Science and Engineering Indicators 2006 contains quantitative analyses of key aspects of the scope, quality, and vitality of the Nation's science and engineering enterprise. The report presents information on science, mathematics, and engineering education at all levels; the scientific and engineering workforce; U.S. and international R&D performance and competitiveness in high technology; public attitudes and understanding of science and engineering; and various aspects of state science and technology infrastructure through a series of state-level indicators.
S&E Trends in the United States
The U.S. S&E Labor Force
S&E jobs play a growing role in the U.S. economy, but U.S. S&E degree production lagged growth in S&E occupations.
In 2003, the number of people working in S&E occupations reached 4.6 million, up from 3.3 million a decade earlier.
The past decade’s growth in S&E jobs continues a longer trend. In each of the past five decades, S&E jobs in the U.S. economy grew more rapidly than the overall civilian labor force. After unusually rapid increases in the 1950s (averaging about 17%), S&E employment through the 1990s rose at an annual average of 3.5%, more than three times as fast as the growth in overall civilian employment (figure O-28). In 2003, another 8.6 million holders of S&E degrees worked in jobs not classified as S&E, up from 6.5 million a decade earlier. Many of these other jobs required some S&E knowledge, indicating an increase in these jobs’ technical content.
[8.6 MILLION S&E degree holders = burger flippers].
S&E degree production increased but was less than the 4% average annual growth rate of S&E employment from 1980 to 2000.
[This period coincided with the beginnings of the H-1B and L-1 visa abuse period. Remember the layoffs, mergers, acquisitions, downsizings, rightsizings, Wall Street rewarding companies for layoffs? Still, S&E employment rose. So did foreign worker visa programs. Two MILLION H-1B and Three MILLION L-1 visa guest workers were imported during that time frame – most in high-tech jobs. I had a hell of a time finding work during that period, and no income raises, either. Japanese, Chinese, Indians, Filipinos all over the place. I had to either train them or starve. At that time, I didn’t know anything about temporary work visas and thought my career plight was localized to my geographic and industrial hell-hole – the "oil patch" – Houston. After being forced into the occupation of "Information Technology Gypsie", I have since learned that all American job markets are alike. The Japanese, bless their hearts, eventually bailed out of America – better prospects back in the homeland.
The following paragraph makes no sense.]
The more rapid expansion of S&E jobs was
made possible by the growing numbers of foreigners who
earned U.S. degrees and subsequently stayed in the country,
those with foreign S&E degrees who migrated to the United
States for a limited period or permanently, and low retirement
rates of scientists and engineers who, as a group, were
younger than the overall labor force.
How does a labor market saturation produce an expansion of jobs?
Only a government agency (NSB) can justify this logic.
The influx of scientists and engineers from Asia and
elsewhere accelerated in the 1990s.
The 1990s showed strong increases in the number of .
foreign-born individuals holding U.S. S&E jobs; by 2000,
this share had increased from 14% to 22% (figure O-29).
The largest increases were for doctorate holders, from 24%
to 38%, and for certain job specialties. More than half of the
engineers holding doctorates and 45% of doctorate holders
in the physical sciences, computer sciences, and life sciences
were foreign born. One-third of these foreign-born scientists
and engineers came from India, China, and the Philippines;
among doctorate holders, those from China and India alone
comprised one-third of the total.
Here’s a kiss-my-ass statistic for you: 65% of all temporary foreign workers on H-1B visas during that period were computer programmers – including COBOL (a "dinosaur" skill). Most of the rest were health care technicians or teachers running union nurses and teachers out of their jobs.
Foreign students earned one-third of U.S. S&E doctorates
and 55% of engineering doctorates, whereas doctorates
earned by U.S. white males dropped sharply.
The production of U.S. S&E doctorates since 1990 has
been robust, rising from 23,800 to a record 28,800 in 1998
before dropping to 26,900 in 2003. The overall number depended
heavily on foreign students. Students holding temporary
visas earned between 6,800 and 8,700 doctorates a year 30)—
in 2003 they earned one-third of the total
number of doctorates, more than half of those in engineering,
44% of those in mathematics and computer science, and 35%
of those in the physical sciences. The number of U.S. Asian
students is inflated by the conversion of large numbers of
Chinese students with temporary visas to permanent status
under the 1992 Chinese Student Protection Act.
Large numbers of foreign doctorate holders continue to
stay in the U.S. after receiving their degree.
Recent downturns in foreign enrollment notwithstanding,
many foreign students pursue advanced study in S&E fields
at U.S. universities. These students frequently choose to stay
in the United States after earning their S&E degree. Beginning
in the 1990s, a growing number of graduate students,
doctorate holders, and postdoctoral fellows chose to remain
in the country for further study or work. Since the mid-
1990s, every year about 6,500–7,000 foreign students who
earned a U.S. S&E doctorate planned to stay in the United
States after receiving their degree (figure O-31). Through
2003, many of these students remained in the country for
years after graduation: 53% of the 1993 doctorate recipients
were working in the United States in 1997 and 61% of the
1998 cohort remained in the country in 2003. However,
increasing international competition for foreign students raises
questions about the continued viability of these high rates.
These two statistics are meaningless. Less than 3% of foreign
students achieve doctorates. In 2003, 624,917 F1 and M1
and 321,660 J1 student visas were issued. Your guess is
as good as mine as to what a "cohort" is. All of these foreign
students are eligible for H-1B visas upon graduation. No record
is kept of where they are or where they go and graduates are not
subject to visa cap limitations. "65,000 cap" be damned.
Retirements from the S&E labor force are likely to become
more significant over the next decade.
Twenty-nine percent of all S&E degree holders in the labor
force are age 50 or over. Among S&E doctorate holders
in the labor force, 44% are age 50 or over.
By age 62, half of S&E bachelor’s degree holders had left
full-time employment. Doctorate degree holders work
slightly longer, with half leaving full-time employment
by age 66.
Good luck with that informed estimate. After 31 months of
unemployment during the last 5 years, I will have to work until I die in my cubicle. My salary has dropped to the level of 1985, after out-of-town expenses, which companies no longer pay and the IRS no longer allows S&E workers to deduct (Sec. 1706).
The importance of foreign-born scientists and engineers to
the S&E enterprise in the United States continues to grow.
Twenty-five percent of all college-educated workers in
S&E occupations in 2003 were foreign born.
This has a ring of truth, yet actual numbers of guest workers in the U.S. are not known by any entity and tend to be grossly underestimated. My consulting experience leads me to estimate 40% to 60%.
How Large Is the U.S. S&E Workforce?
Estimates of the size of the U.S. S&E workforce vary
based on the criteria used to define scientist or engineer.
Education, occupation, field of degree, and field of employment
are all factors that may be considered. (See sidebar,
"Who Is a Scientist or an Engineer?")
The size of the S&E workforce in 2003 varies between
approximately 4 million and 15 million individuals, depending
on the definition and perspective used (see table 3-1).
I guess a 375% margin of error is close enough for government work. How much confidence do you have in government reports now – the numbers that your Congressmen and media editors douse you every day?
Conclusion
In general, labor market conditions for individuals with
S&E degrees improved during the 1990s. (These conditions
have always been better than the conditions for college graduates
as a whole.) However, engineering and computer science
occupations have been unusually affected by the recent
recession, causing the unemployment rate for individuals in
all S&E occupations to reach a 20-year high of 4.6% in 2003
If you believe this rosy depiction of unemployment rates, then I am surprised you have read this far.