Historically, how have early front-runners fared in Democratic primaries? Does their advantage in name recognition, organization, popularity, and fundraising hold up as the primaries draw closer?
Not well, according to this article in the New York Observer by Steve Kornacki
Go ahead and call Hillary Rodham Clinton the front-runner for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination. After all, she’s running 20 points ahead of her nearest rival in the national polls, and she’ll have lots and lots (and lots and lots) of cash.
Just don’t get carried away.
There is a notion floating around that the former First Lady’s candidacy represents some heretofore unseen convergence of might and inevitability.
But as early front-runners in the modern era of Democratic Presidential politics go, Mrs. Clinton looks almost average.
In an unflattering comparison, Kornacki compares Hillary Clinton to one of the best-known (and controversial) television sports broadcasters in recent decades - the late Howard Cosell
There’s also the power of her celebrity, which hurts her as much as it helps. In that sense, Mrs. Clinton is a latter-day Howard Cosell, whose bombastic omnipresence once rendered him—simultaneously—the most revered and reviled man in America. (Mr. Cosell actually toyed with entering politics—in 1976, when the New York Senate seat now occupied by Mrs. Clinton came open—but backed out after deciding that he’d rubbed too many people the wrong way to garner 50-percent-plus-one in an election.)
How much was Howard Cosell reviled? From his "Monday Night Football" days in the 1970's and 1980's, I remember when some people used to gather around their tv sets around 9pm EST on Mondays and then engage in a ritual: as soon as Cosell appeared on camera, they would throw an object which would shatter their tv screens. Although he was certainly a tireless self-promoter and contemptuous of ex-athletes becoming sports journalists, I always liked him and respected his skills. He was colorful, entertaining, and never boring. But you either loved him or hated him. In that respect, the comparison to Hillary Clinton is apt.
Kornacki points out that early Democratic front-runners always falter and run into problems. Comparing Hillary Clinton to Walter Mondale and Edmund Muskie - early front-runners in 1983 and 1971 - he writes
In late 1983, just a few months before the lead-off Iowa caucuses, Mr. Mondale led his nearest competitor, Ohio Senator John Glenn, by a staggering 28 points in a national poll—a margin that even Mrs. Clinton can’t seem to match.
For all his inevitability, Mr. Mondale was truly lucky to win the nomination.
Another instructive example is that of Ed Muskie, "the man from Maine," who was all but penciled in as the 1972 Democratic nominee before the race even started...
But "Big Ed," as Hunter S. Thompson called him, was hopelessly out of touch with the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, which yearned for a leader willing to speak clearly and unequivocally against the Vietnam War.
As we all know, Walter Mondale did secure the nomination in 1984, overcoming a strong and vigorous challenge from Gary Hart. He chose Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate and then proceeded to lose 49 states in an electoral landslide to Ronald Reagan. In 1972, Ed Muskie's campaign collapsed in the snows of New Hampshire as this article by Harold Meyerson detailed last week in the Washington Post.
So, what awaits Hillary Clinton in the coming months? Kornacki strongly suggests that her fate will not resemble that of Al Gore's in 2000 when he overcame a strong challenge from Bill Bradley and proceeded to win every single primary that year.
Stay tuned, folks. We are in for lots of surprises and a bumpy ride in 2007 and beyond.