For a good chunk of 2006, federal voting intentions in Canada have been somewhat stable; the Conservatives led the Liberals but by less than what they got at the polls, the Liberals led in Ontario and the Bloc in Quebec. In Quebec, however, provincial voting intentions have slowly been shifting up to now: in mid-2005, the Quebec Liberals (PLQ) under Premier Jean Charest were exceedingly unpopular, in fact the most unpopular provincial government ever; the PQ hovered around an absolute majority of the vote, which, when combined with the presence of the small right-wing ADQ and the map which concentrates Liberal support on Western Montreal island, would have meant an unprecedented blowout.
But péquistes are unpredictable and tend to be suspicious of their leaders. In a confidence vote by party activists in 2005, then leader Bernard Landry got 75% approval, but he wanted 80%, so he announced his departure from politics. This things began to change - but the questions is, why is all of this relevant?
Well, since then, the PQ had a leadership race where long-time minister Pauline Marois was beat by the young, photogenic André Boisclair. Since then, however, questions about his judgment - in particular his use of cocaine while in cabinet as Environment minister, combined with modest improvement of the performance of the government an upgrade of the province's credit rating have caused the PQ to PLUMMET in the standings; they now stand at less than 30% in the polls. The party is having particular difficulty in many rural areas, where Boisclair is seen as a Montreal yuppie, and in fact many people are refusing to vote for an openly gay party leader. This is a first since 1970, when the party was barely created.
And with better numbers, the Liberals have dropped a writ for a Quebec election on the 26th of March. Their standing in the polls hovers around 36%, enough to barely get reelected (because of the map). However, where is the other third?
Part of the problem lies with the presence of the newer Quebec Green Party and Quebec Solidaire, together docking about 11% of the vote without hope of winning a seat. They also disproportionally affect the PQ.
But the major problem lies with a certain revival of the ADQ under Mario Dumont. This right-wing party was constantly oscillating around 18% until just before the election was called; in the past week, however, their support has shot up by nearly a third. They are stronger yet with francophones (the PLQ dominates the anglophone vote with about 65%) and even then their vote is spread about unevenly. Weren't there the Conservatives who won 10 seats in Quebec in 2006 because of vote concentration around Quebec City and 'soft Quebec' (mostly the south shore, south of Quebec City, very francophone, with an old population, and lukewarm to separarism)? If you answered yes, right on. Now, bear with me.
The argument is that people around Quebec City like to be in government; but in fact, the area is traditionally relatively right-wing. The Conservatives won several seats by small margins, and were in the 'paying zone' - the point where there is enough support to produce gains by winning less than 45%, sometimes 40% of the vote. Regional polling gives 32 PLQ/30 ADQ/25 PQ in Quebec City. A good chunk of the PLQ surplus is wiped out in two or three, possibly four electoral districts in the city proper with cabinet ministers running, and two riding are still held by the PQ - after that, the ADQ likely has the lead in the suburbs. The 2003 numbers produced many ridings where the PLQ won over the ADQ by smallish margins (PQ third) in both Quebec and the South Shore, and the south Shore is even more right wing (the ADQ holds three ridings directly south of the bridges linking the two regions, and the four Conservatives by big to huge margins). Thus, even present polling indicates a bare minimum of 5 and possibly as many as 10 ridings going from PLQ to ADQ (and many of the incumbents are ineffective). When combined with the 5 ridings they currently hold they almost asured of having the 12 seats necessary for official party status. This would let them air their views more easily...
This wcould also make a PLQ majority government all but impossible; at dissolution they held 72 seats, there are 125 seats total and the PQ had 45 with two vacancies near Montreal and an independent Liberal who is not running in 'soft Quebec'. There are only a handful of gains (five or six) they can make scattered across the province and three or four seats that they are in severe danger of losing. This would mean Quebec's first ever 'real' minority government, with the ADQ holding the balance of power and the Quebec City region having considerable clout - the thought of this occuring may even reinforce the ADQ surge.
However, there are caveats; the campaign only started a week ago, the PLQ has a enormous budget. Charest is already expected to win the TV debate and the PLQ has never had less than 44% of the vote since 1981. In fact there is normally a 'ballot-box bonus' for them of at least a few percentage points. It exists federally as well for the federal Liberals - but in the last election the bonus leaned towards the Tories. Would the ADQ scoop part of it? In any case, the PQ is going to be severly impacted - some are going so far as to say the ADQ might become the Opposition, which would be an irreversible setback for the PQ and separatism. This is especially the case if the ADQ surge begins spreading west - only a handful at most of ridings elsewhere could plausibly flip - but the constant nibbling of PQ majorities could cause the PQ to go below 20 seats in a worse case scenario.
Now, for the federal picture. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is to deliver a budget on the 19th that could influence the election and shore up Conservative numbers. They presently lead the Liberals by about 10 points after Dion poorly responded to challenges, about 36 to 27 (which would be the worst Federal Liberal result EVER), while the NDP has slumped to about 13%, almost tying with the Greens. Most importantly, the tories lead 40 to 32 in Ontario. NDP strength and Tory strength are isolated from one another in the province, and the Liberals could conceivably in such a scenario lose 30 seats, plus more elsewhere, and assuming the Tories don't rise in Quebec (where they sit at an anemic 15%), and have few other potential areas to make gains, the Tories would still fail to achieve a majority government. However, major tax breaks or solving the fiscal imbalance could quickly change that; there is a good chance of another federal election this year, with the Tories prodding the opposition.
Finally, to link the two parts together; a trashing of the PQ would definitely improve Harper's fortunes. A Conservative majority government would be bad for Canada (to put it mildly), but it could be compounded, in Quebec, by a more right-wing government there due to ADQ influence. And should both an ADQ government and a Conservative majority coexist, watch out - Quebec will have had its fill of Bush-style government, with all the consequences. The ADQ led in early 2003 but collapsed due to its clear right-wing nature - it wanted to eliminate the top provincial tax bracket of 24%.
That is all - congratulations if you made it this far. If future developments warrant it, I will come back to update on the situation and possible consequences.