(Posted earlier, in part, at MyDD.com)
Every so often something happens in a presidential campaign that so dramatically changes the remaining days of the campaign, that it can rightly be called a turning point. Just such a turning point occurred two weeks ago in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Yet, few in the mainstream media even noticed the turning point. Nevertheless, it happened, and it will have profound implications for the remaining days of this race.
The turning point occurred at the very first candidates' event, held on February 21, 2007, in Carson City, Nevada. You might recall that this forum had a somewhat novel format: one by one, the presidential candidates were asked to enter the stage, give a short, two minute speech, sit down for three questions, then conclude their appearance with a short, one minute speech.
The first candidate to appear was Dodd. He was then followed by the present frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, and here is where the turning point occurred. Let's go to the tape, in this case, the C-Span recording of the Nevada forum, which can be viewed here.
Hilllary Clinton enters at the 13:00 minute mark, and at the 19:36 minute mark, she is asked about her plans for bringing universal health care to America. She begins with what is presumably an expression of understandable humility:
You know I have a little bit of experience in trying to reform health care. And I still have the scars to show for it. I needed some health care after that was over.
She proceeds to capably describe the widespread frustration with the high cost of health care today, and concludes with this extremely significant statement at the 22:27 minute mark.
Well I want to have universal health care coverage by the end of my second term. And with everybody working on that. I think we can do it.
Whoa! Did I hear that right? Not today? Not in your first 100 days as President? Not in your first term? Not by the end of your first term? But, AFTER she serves four years, presumably manages to get re-elected for a second term in 2102, then have it in place at the end of your second term in 2016? This is a VERY significant political statement that deserves attention. I will analyze the significance of this political formulation in some detail later, but first, let's continue with the tape.
Curiously, after Hillary Clinton is finished answering her three questions on stage, she simply exits the stage without giving her closing statement. What? Did she forget the format of the event? Or, did she simply decide NOT to give it? Baffling. Nobody really reported on this (Have presidential events become this informal: kind of like dress down Fridays?) Vilsack follows on the heels of Hillary Clinton.
Edwards is next, and he enters the stage at the 35:32 minute mark. Edwards, to his credit, recognizes the significance of what has just happened, and he adjusts his prepared two-minute speech accordingly. At the 38:16 minute mark, Edwards says this:
We cannot stand silent when 47 million of our own people, who desperately need health care, have no health care coverage.
I am proud of the fact (and George may ask me about it) that I am the first candidate to come out with a detailed, substantive truly universal health care plan, for every man, woman and child in America.
And I want to say to you, I don't want to wait six or eight years to have universal health care. I want to start putting universal health care in place as soon as I am sworn into office in January of 2009, which is what America needs. We can't wait.
And so there it was for all the world to see: a major, SUBSTANTIVE difference between the candidacies of Edwards and Clinton opened up in Nevada, on February 21, 2007.
Clearly, from this point forward, the two candidacies will diverge on this pivotal issue, and diverge significantly. Edwards, should the voters select him as the Democratic nominee, will seek a mandate from the American voters in the general election of November 2008, to actually implement universal health care in January of 2009, his FIRST MONTH in office.
By contrast, Hillary, should the voters select her as the Democratic nominee, will NOT be seeking a mandate from the American voters in the general election of 2008, to actually implement universal health care in January of 2009, or for that matter, within her first term!
Instead, she has told the world that she hopes to climb the universal health care mountain MUCH LATER, following her presumed re-election in 2012, then, by the time her second term expires in 2016. (Talk about asking the voters to count their chickens before they hatch!) Very significant.
Now, some of you may be thinking that Hillary's statement was just an off the cuff remark. Hillary misspoke. She did not mean it. I disagree. Let me first direct your attention to a second remark she made in Nevada immediately following the above referenced statement.
Curiously, after skipping her one minute closing statement at the official presidential forum, Hillary Clinton quickly made her way to a nearby room, where an overflow crowd was watching the forum on television monitors. After some remarks that cleverly underscored Obama's absence at the event, she joked with the crowd. In a moment of both levity and hubris, she devilishly pointed out that by speaking to this crowd, at this time, she was pre-empting the ability of these people to watch the other candidates.
I know you want to get back to watching the other candidates. (Some in the crowd say, "No".) Well let me just say a few other things then. (Laughter.)
And so, she proceeded to preemptively give a six minute Nevada stump speech, and in that speech, she explicitly reiterated her "universal health care in my second term" formulation:
We're going to have universal health care by the end of my two terms.
Hillary Clinton, therefore, has made it clear that she will NOT be submitting a universal health care plan in the 2007 and 2008 campaign. She will NOT be seeking a mandate for universal health care from the voters in 2008. Instead, she expects universal health care to come in her second term, in particular, between the years of 2012 and 2016.
By contrast, Edwards WILL submit a universal health care plan to the voters in 2008 (he already has), and Edwards WILL be seeking a mandate for universal health care from the American people in 2008, in order to implement it in January of 2009. February 2007 has given us a major turning point in the campaign.
For those who might doubt the significance of Edwards calling for universal health care NOW, and Hillary Clinton's decision to DELAY universal health care until her second term, take a look at a recent New York Times poll on this particular issue, published March 2, 2007 on page A15:
What is the domestic policy MOST important for the President and Congress to concentrate on RIGHT NOW?
Democrats: Health Insurance For All: 71%
Immigration Laws: 12%
Reducing Taxes: 9%
Traditional Values: 6%
No Opinion: 2%
Clearly, then, this divergence between Clinton and Edwards is very significant.
Your thoughts?
In my first three comments, I want to analyze this development in greater detail from the point of view of each one of the leading candidates, including Obama.
(In the way of information, the aforementioned New York Times poll results were recently available on line, in graphic form, at the New York Times web site, alongside the accompanying article. Curiously, they are now gone from the site.)