The past few weeks have seen one of the most unpredictable campaigns so far in Canadian political history. Unpredictable at first, the ADQ came in with populist, right-wing measures andturned a two-way race into a three-way one.
Right now, polls suggest voting trends along the following lines:
PLQ: 36-32%; there is a small lead due to unwavering Anglophone support.
PQ: 32-29%: they have solidified their base, traditional party solidarity is back, Parizeau and other former ministers are going around
ADQ: 25-29%: they rose non-stop until the debate, now there is a slight ebb but no drop.
But it is the Francophone vote which holds the key to any victory, and it breaks along these lines:
ADQ: 33-35%
PQ: 32-35%
PLQ about 25% in the polls
Assuming these numbers hold, there will clearly be a minority government, possibly by any of the 3 parties. Precise and up-to-date regional breakdowns are unavailable as to my knowledge, but the following is generally accepted:
- Montreal: The island will have little change, the PLQ will win the popular vote cleanly, but may lose 1-2 seats; ADQ is nowhere. Laval is normally a key barometer, no information available, may split its four contested seats (it has 5, one is a PLQ fortress), ADQ quite weak. The South Shore would likely see a few switches to the PQ; there are a couple of PLQ safe seats, and the ADQ is a bit stronger. The North Shore would see the PLQ lose its only seat, but the ADQ is even stronger and some traditional PQ strongholds may become marginal.
- Outaouais-Laurentides: Yawn. PLQ to hold all of Outaouais, PQ to hold up in Laurentides, ADQ not too strong. Argenteuil is a little wobblier for the PLQ however.
- Montérégie-Centre-du-Québec-Estrie: The ADQ is becoming quite dangerous here and its support increases the farther east you go. There a couple of safe PLQ seats touching the US border and Richmond, while the PQ has 5-6 targets. Many PQ targets are also ADQ targets; the swing-seat status of Saint-Jean is being sorely tested.
- Lanaudière-Mauricie: The PQ is still holding up in Lanaudière, but less strongly than in 2003. The ADQ is becoming dangerous in the two easternmost districts, one which it held prior to 2003, possibly due to Mauricie next door. Here the ADQ is strong, it may pick up 3 out of 5 (incuding the two PQ seats), the PLQ may be able to hold on to the two others, the PQ can only pick up Trois-Rivières.
- Quebec City: The ADQ now dominates; only 3-4 seats may escape them out of 11; Transport Minister Desprès is close to defeat and Health Minister Couillard not terribly far off. its traditional of being with the governement is severely compromised, to say the least.
- Chaudière-Appalaches: The ADQ is heading towards a sweep of all 8 seats, if not an absolute majority of the vote; the PLQ might be able yet to hold the minister of Labour in Frontenac.
- Eastern Québec: The PQ is stronger here, but may only pick up Matane (and its barometer role is compromised as well). The PLQ may be limited to Bonaventure; Environment Minister Béchard, who oversaw the Orford fiasco, is in difficulty in Kamouraska-Témiscouata (sandwiched between two safe ADQ seats). ADQ is strong in the West but absent in Gaspésie.
- Northern Québec: the PQ dominates here now, but not as much as usual though, many seats in the Saguenay are still in play when they normally aren't. They could sweep all 11 seats up here, the ADQ is weakish-weak.
Seat projections give no party more than 55 seats out of 125; the ADQ will win at least 20; the PLQ cannot drop below about 30.
The debate was inconclusive; Charest looked tired and finished, Boisclair was overexcited and Dumont soundly defeated policy-wise.
There is still a week, however. There are main variables in play:
Undecided: There are quite a few undecideds compared to most elections. The PQ and PLQ support is more solid than that of the ADQ, which may suffer in the closing stretch from low funds and weak organization outside of their two new strongholds. Also undecideds tend to break towards the PLQ. However, quite a few undecideds are traditionally in soft Quebec where the ADQ is strongest, and are Francophone even though their support has rarely been so low with that demographic.
The Federal Budget: It will be presented tomorrow. Charest needs it because it is supposed to fix the "fiscal imbalance" (more money for Quebec means Charest delivers). Dumont needs it to table the cost of his program. Montreal Minister Fortier met Charest at St. Patrick's mass today and promised it would be fixed. However, it just might be voted down. The Conservatives are warning of an imminent federal election over it, but the BQ might prop it up: they would be battered by a PLQ victory as it is closely linked to the PQ, and Québec voters would likely be in a fit over incessant election campaigns. This scenario was never seriously considered.
I will be back tomorrow to report on the budget and the reactions to it, especially in Québec.