It is now evident to me that all the elements are in place for Bush to run out the clock until the end of his term, avoiding ending the Iraq war and being removed from office. BushCo understands that the resentment afflicting the electorate does not mean that the public has repudiated American imperialism; they are simply disappointed in Bush. Bush will be discarded as well-intentioned by ineffective - not ferocious enough to win against America's enemies.
Simply put, America will repudiate Bush, but not his policies, because that would mean exiting the delightful fantasy kingdom of US exceptionalism that was artfully constructed by the backers of BushCo. Here is how I see the next six years playing out:
- Bush throws a few more staff members to the wolves (Chihuahuas would be a better metaphor for the Democrats), buying a few more precious months with each forced resignation, and blaming the Democrats for persecuting his staff.
- The Iraq Surge is followed by Surge II, Surge III, and Surge IV. Each surge is defended in the same way. We must try something else, because defeat is unacceptable. Each surge buys another Friedman Unit (six months) of delay.
- The Democrats beat the drums of reform, but reverse only a fraction of the legislative damage inflicted by the Bush II administration.
- Iraq casualties creep slowly upward, as the US loses control of the war zone.
- The economy continues to soften as the destructive effects of BushCo corruption and mismanagement spread.
- The Democrats pick up a few more senate seats in 2008, and narrowly win the Presidency.
- The Democratic president is unable to reverse the authoritarian legislation of Bush, because he/she still lacks 60 votes in the Senate, and the Republicans fillibuster every Democratic reform measure, even threatening to shut down the government.
- Oil prices rise, and the economy stagnates. Senate Republicans prevent the rollback of the Bush tax cuts. Desperate to appear "strong," Democrats increase defense spending to record levels, taking the funds from social programs.
- Us forces are expelled from Iraq in a humiliating rushed withdrawal. Republican propagandists carefully records the most embarrassing details of the defeat.
- Republicans campaign on "Restoring America's Strength" and win back a few Senate and House seats in the 2010 election.
- Newt Gingrich is elected President in 2012 and promises to fight back angainst the Islamofascists. Republicans win solid majorities in the House and Senate. Preparations are made for an attack on Saudi Arabia. US intelligence reports that the Saudis have WMD and are planning to make them available to terrorists.
In short, after the Democrats enjoy a brief return to power, America will resume its militaristic serial aggression. The American electorate is addicted to the deep emotional satisfaction provided by a belligerent relationship to the world. America will remain a serial aggressor until an alliance of nations puts a permanent end to our destructive militarism.
The problem of American militarism will not be solved by American politicians, who have nothing powerful enough to replace this narcotic hallucinogen. The problem will be solved by the nations of the world community who no longer wish to pay the price of living at the mercy of a serial aggressor.
Like a terrible dragon of mythology, bellicose America appears doomed to repeat the cycle of belching the blighting fire of war, then gathering its breath in a deceptive cycle of "reform" before emitting the next deadly blast. At some point, the global villagers will decide to destroy the dragon rather than endure its next attack.