All it would take is one guy standing in his backyard with a shoulder-mounted rocket launcher or an assault rifle and this nation will be at war with Iran. Just one accident -- one miscommunication or misunderstanding -- and American troops would become involved in yet another Middle Eastern war.
The situation that exists right now between Iran, the U.K., and the U.S. has the potential to become disastrous, and I'm shocked that it hasn't received more coverage in the mainstream media. Kudos to Meteor Blades for finally addressing it here on DailyKos. Particularly with the Bush administration's penchant for using bombs and bullets before diplomacy, the American people should be seriously concerned about the impact of this crisis.
As of this writing, Britain and Iran are staring each other in the eyes, hoping that one of them will blink. Unfortunately, Tony Blair is desperate to resolve this incident and return the 15 British soldiers safely before he leaves office this summer, and the Iranians have no track record of reasonable cooperation with the international community. These two facts make a safe and satisfactory resolution of the crisis terrifyingly unlikely.
The New York Times reported on Thursday:
With the latest developments the confrontation, now in its seventh day, seemed to have reached a point where neither side had left the other much room for a face-saving compromise.
This sort of brinkmanship is reminiscent of Cold War-style standoffs in which neither side was willing to give anything away. I was reminded specifically of an incident during Eisenhower's administration, known as the First Taiwan Strait Crisis to history buffs, but often remembered as the Quemoy and Matsu Crisis. In 1954, the U.S.-supported Nationalist Chinese in Taiwan placed tens of thousands of troops on the islands of Quemoy and Matsu, located in the Strait of Taiwan, between the island and mainland China. In an effort to "liberate" Taiwan, elements of the army of the People's Republic of China (mainland communist China under Mao) began bombarding Quemoy with artillery. To protect the non-communist Taiwanese and their precious bodily fluids from the Red Chinese attack, the U.S. Joint Chiefs recommended the use of nuclear weapons against China.
Eisenhower was under considerable political pressure to use either American troops, nuclear weapons, or both to resolve the crisis, both of which would have led to all-out war with China. It is difficult to imagine a more frightening scenario for American soldiers -- fighting a foreign enemy on their own soil while vastly outnumbered with practically no chance of success (things sure have changed...). Eisenhower demonstrated incredible poise and leadership ability when he refused to involve American troops in the incident, because he knew what the Bush administration seems incapable of comprehending. He knew that if he sent the U.S. Navy to the Taiwan Strait, all it would take would be some guy with a rifle to fire on the ships and war would be inevitable. Eisenhower refused.
This crisis cannot and will not be solved by military brinksmanship. Sending more carrier groups to the Gulf and ordering more Air Force flyovers will only lead to disaster. What we need is diplomacy -- real substantive diplomacy -- and we need it now.
Gordon Chang and He Di have written about the Quemoy-Matsy crisis, and what they say about its lessons are especially applicable today:
The episode helps us appreciate the contingency of events and unpredictability of international crises... In the Quemoy-Matsu case, miscalculation by both sides led to unwanted and unanticipated consequences. Evaluation of intelligence through the colored filter of assumptions based on each side's own culture, national experience, and biases made mistakes inevitable and contributed to the escalation of tensions. The absence of war was due more to good luck than to effective deterrence.
Bring on the good luck. Please.