Races that are or might be interesting by Election Day 2008. The first thing that surprises is that out of 33 races this cycle, a full 20 have the potential of turning into real races. Given that 14 of those are Republicans, it's a great map for Democrats, which is why NRSC chief John Ensign has already cried 'uncle' and gone to the RNC begging for money.
Of course, many of these races (and others not listed) may or may not be on this list in six months depending on the quality of the candidate recruitment, the money picture, and the political climate, but a Democratic pickup of 4-8 seats is not out of the realm of possibilities, nor is a filibuster-proof Democratic majority in 2010 when the map once again strongly favors Democrats (with tough reelection battles for Republicans Voinovich, Bond, Bunning, Grassley, Specter, Murkowski, Martinez, Gregg, Coburn, Burr, and an open seat in Kansas, with only Lincoln, Murray, Salazar, and maybe Dorgan facing potentially tough races on the Democratic side).
Also, note that we've got plenty of time to find candidates for many of these races. Tester got in late May 2005. Sherrod Brown and Paul Hackett didn't join the race until October of 2005. Ned Lamont and Jim Webb got in February of 2006.
(Races ranked in tiers, not individually.)
TOP TIER
Colorado (R-open)
While Colorado may not be Blue enough to call this one today, the fact that 1) state Democrats are on a surge, 2) we've got a top-tier candidate in Rep. Mark Udall, 3) the GOP's best candidate won't run, and 4) they've got nothing but wingnut losers left, suggests that this race is easily the most likely to flip in 2008.
Louisiana (D-Landrieu)
The GOP's rising star, Bobby Jindal, is gunning for the governor's mansion. Either he wins that race, or he loses to Democrat John Breaux and is damaged goods (having lost two gubernatorial races in a row). Landrieu's numbers haven't been polled in a while, but late 2006 polling showed her still fairly popular. This is easily the Democratic Party's most vulnerable seat, but it's not as vulnerable as the GOP wishes it was.
Maine (R-Collins)
Collins could be the Lincoln Chafee of 2008 -- a popular local figure part of a hugely unpopular national party. Popular Rep. Tom Allen will probably face off against her.
Collins voted earlier this week with her Republican overlords on the Iraq supplemental, voting against a withdrawal deadline and against the full supplemental -- a vote for more war. Allen will make good use of that and other pro-escalation votes in a state that has little love for Republicans, Bush, or the war in Iraq. Collins is also breaking a two-term pledge, as is usually the case by most politicians who make them.
If Allen can make this a race about Bush and Iraq, he's the next Senator from the Great State of Maine.
Minnesota (R-Coleman)
Coleman is the Rick Santorum of 2008 -- a senator far too the Right of his Blue-leaning state. His vote yesterday to strip deadlines from the Iraq supplemental added to the mounting pile of wingnutty votes. He's a freshman Senator who won in large part because of the despicable Right-wing attack on the Wellstone memorial. It was a fluke. And Congressional Quarterly numbers show he has voted with Bush 88 percent of the time -- not Jeff Sessions or John Cornyn territory, but far wingnuttier than his constituents would like.
There's a bit of handwringing about Al Franken, but 1) he's not the only Democrat in the race, there will be several vying for this top-tier pickup opportunity, and 2) Minnesota isn't afraid to elect colorful, non-traditional candidates (e.g. Wellstone, Ventura). Bush's approval rating in MN is currently 30 percent, while Coleman's numbers are still still dropping, now at 47/43 approval/disapproval. The numbers were 49/43 last month.
New Hampshire (R-Sununu)
This long-distance runner has been literally running from the press afraid to answer questions about Iraq. Well, this week on his Iraq Supplemental votes he spoke loud and clear on the issue -- More War!
Not surprising. Sununu has been one of Bush's most loyal lieutenants, with a CQ Bush-loyalty rating of 90 percent. In a state where Bush's job approval rating is 31 percent and absolutely decimated the GOP ranks in 2006, this isn't exactly the best place for Sununu to be. Granite State Democrats are chomping at the bit to take Sununu on, and this one should produce a Democratic Senator by the time the votes are counted in 2008. The only question is when we can bag this one and move on. (Given Jeanne Shaheen's numbers, she would put this one away early.)
Oregon (R-Smith)
The DSCC is gunning for Rep. DeFazio to take on Smith, releasing polling showing a small but clear DeFazio lead in a head-to-head matchup. Smith has been all over Iraq as he's tried to strike a balance between his re-election chances and GOP demands for loyalty. He was one of just two Republicans to join Democrats in maintaining withdrawal deadlines in the Iraq supplemental funding bill. The latest polling gives Smith a 50/40 approval/disapproval rating, compared to 48-38 a month ago. Bush is at 31/65. And with the CfG making noise in the state, a spirited primary challenge from the Right will only add to Smith's woes.
If DeFazio enters, this is instantly a top-tier race and perhaps even a lean-D race. If it's someone else, we may have to work a little harder for the victory. But this early in the process, I'm ready to write Smith's political obituary.
SECOND TIER
New Mexico (R-Domenici)
Domenici supports Bush 91 percent of the time in one of the most evenly divided states in the union, though Bush's approval ratings are now 34/63. Considered an "institution" by the punditry, Domenici is nonetheless taking a serious hit thanks his role in the US Attorneys scandal. Once at a lofty 64/27, one month later Domenici is at 57/35. And yeah, while those numbers are still pretty good, the trend is not. His pro-war votes this week won't help, nor will continued questions about his, um, fitness to serve.
"What are people talking about `walking the halls'? I work!'" the 74-year-old Domenici said, sounding a tad indignant that folks would assume his lightweight wool plaid pants were pajamas. "These pants have two pockets like any else."
He explained he wears the hunting pants around the house and if he leaves to go to the office, "I don't necessarily take them off."
They're comfy, and they're fun, he said. "People stop me to talk about them. They're Christmasy, they're black and white."
North Carolina (R-Dole)
Notice how tired she's looked lately? She's announced she's running for re-election, but it wouldn't surprise me to see her quit. Her tenure as head of the NRSC was an abject disaster, and her star power has faded nationally as a result. Her leadership tenure may not be an issue with NC voters, but her general ineffectiveness is. Dueling partisan polls paint a different picture -- Dole's own poll says she's got a 64/26 favorable/unfavorable rating, while a DSCC poll pegs the split at 49/46. Also from the DSCC's poll: when asked if the state needs a new Senator, the numbers are 35 Reelect Dole, 26 Consider someone else, 23 Replace Dole.
Rapid population growth around the Research Triangle is fueling North Carolina's turn toward Blue, and general discontent of all things Bush and the Iraq War should provide an added boost. Much will depend on our candidate, but this race will likely be top tier before the end of the cycle.
South Dakota (D-Johnson)
How do you run against a guy in rehab without coming off as an ass? That's the GOP's dilemma, and it may very well spare Johnson a serious challenge. While the NRSC is agitating for a top-tier candidate today, local Republicans understand that in a small, tight-knit state lake SD, such a crass move would be political suicide.
But while Ensign emphasized that the NRSC is doing what it can, South Dakota Republicans stressed that there is little appetite to engage in any political activity for the Senate race absent a full recovery by Johnson or a decision by him to forgo re-election.
“It puts us in an awkward position,” said one Republican operative in South Dakota. “It’s hard to pick on the sick guy.”
Virginia (R-Warner)
Virginia Dems are on the march, and are hungrily eyeing John Warner's Senate seat. Warner, who will be 81 years old on Election Day, has been rumored to be thinking of retirement. And given the grilling his buddy George Allen got last year, Warner appears to relish the thought of another raise very little. He's said he's running again, but politicians change their minds all the time and conservatives fear it's all a ploy anyway to pull out at the last second and hand the GOP nomination to ally Rep. Tom Davis.
Mark Warner wants to be in the veepstakes, and he'd be out of consideration if he ran for Senate. He also really enjoyed his tenure as governor, and he wouldn't mind a second stint. So while everyone and their brothers want to drag Warner into the Senate race, he's still playing coy. A Senate run wouldn't just mean a top-tier race (an unknown Mark almost beat John in 1996), but might also provide that last helpful push out of the race for John. However, Virginia Democrats don't need Mark to make this a race. This one should be a top-tier contest by the end of the cycle.
COULD GET INTERESTING
Alabama (R-Sessions)
Sparksmania! Yes, a tough state, but with Bush at 43 percent, discontent on the war high, and Sessions' numbers dropping, the environment might not be better for a spirited upset. Sessions's numbers are currently 54-33, down from 59-30 in February.
Arkansas (D-Pryor)
Pryor was the only Democratic Senate victory in 2002, ousting an incumbent convincingly in a solid Republican year. Much as many Democrats wish Bill Richardson would quit the presidential race and take on Domenici (won't happen), Republicans wish Mike Huckabee would quit the GOP race (yeah, he's still in it) and take on Pryor. If he does, this could become a top race. If he doesn't, the Arkansas GOP doesn't have much else going on.
Georgia (R-Chambliss)
One of those rare states these days still trending Republican (the other is Louisiana). The right candidate could make things interesting, but this one is a slog.
Idaho (R-Craig)
With right-wing Republicans in Idaho conspiring to out Craig as gay (a huge open secret), Democrats may get a shot at an open seat against a crazy right-wing opponent. Of course, we had a couple of races like that in 2006 (the governor's and ID-01 races) and we still couldn't pull it off. But states like Idaho are a long-term project, and the 2008 party will be building on its 2006 efforts.
Iowa (D-Harkin)
Republicans really, really, really want to take out Harkin. They have few possibilities, and this one looms larger than most. But Bush is at 37-60. So while Harkin's February numbers weren't stellar (51-41), the national mood will still be tough for Republicans to have much hope.
Kentucky (R-McConnell)
Yeah, we want this one pretty bad. McConnell is going to face serious weaknesses over Iraq, Bush, and his state's ethically corrupt party. McConnell's rating is at a terrible 49-43 (49/42 last month), Bush is at 37-60, and Republicans are going to lose the governor's mansion this year, but not before the state party's scandals bring down the entire ticket.
Democrats want Ben Chandler to run, but Bunnings 2010 seat must look a lot more appealing. Not only is Bunning even less popular than McConnell (41/46), but he's likely to retire after (literally) limping to victory in 2002. Regardless, we're going to have a serious challenger for this race before all's said and done.
Montana (D-Baucus)
Republicans are desperately hoping Rep. Denny Rehberg takes on the popular Max Baucus. Baucus already kicked his ass in 1996, and things look a lot better for the state's Democrats than they did last decade. Several Democrats are hungrily circling Rehberg's House seat, so that may prompt Rehberg to roll the die on the Senate race.
The GOP state party has little below Denny Rehberg. If he doesn't enter the fray, Baucus can slot nicely into the "safe" category.
Nebraska (R-Hagel)
Will Hagel run or not? He made a term limit pledge and he wants to run for president. But politicians don't care much for those term limit pledges, and the GOP primary electorate isn't happy with Hagel's war position (the sensible one). A few weeks ago Hagel called a ridiculous press conference to announce that he wouldn't be making an announcement.
If he stays, he's pretty much safe. If he quits, this is still a lean-Republican race. But we have several exciting up-and-coming candidates in the state, including NE-03 star Scott Kleeb. As a result, I'm sure the ladies are hoping Hagel quits.
New Jersey (D-Lautenberg)
Lautengerg's numbers suck, just like those of every other politician in NJ. Garden staters just HATE their politicians. But they hate the Republican versions even more. So please, please, please let Republicans think they have a chance here again and drop a few more wasted millions into another crushing election night loss.
Oklahoma (R-Inhoffe)
If ridiculously popular Gov. Brad Henry runs, this is a race. But like Chandler, 2010 presents a better chance for him when crazy Tom Coburn faces his first reelection battle. A January Tulsa World poll (essentially a Republican outfit) gave Inhofe ratings of 56/27, and George Bush 47/47.
Texas (R-Cornyn)
The sleeper race of 2008. Bush's home state is disenchanted with their adopted son, 41/57, and Cornyn is definitely in dangerous territory 47/39. Texas Democrats may have a contested primary for a chance to take out Box Turtle, one of Bush's staunchest allies and a top defender of Bush's disastrous Iraq War. The local people-powered movement is providing early backing for State Sen. and National Guard Lt. Col Rick Noriega (who just served a stint in Afghanistan), though Hank Gilbert -- the largest Democratic vote getter statewide last year -- is taking his eyes off a rematch for the state's Ag Commissioner race in 2010 to consider the Senate contest.