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Strategic Vision, a Republican polling firm, has recently published a poll in Iowa of 600 Republican likely caucusgoers and 600 Democratic likely caucusgoers, and it contains a startling result which I have yet to see reported anywhere - 52% of Iowa Republicans who plan on attending the caucus favor "a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months".  Only 39% oppose it with 9% undecided.

I can understand why this result would get little press - it goes against every bit of Beltway convention "wisdom" that Republicans support the surge and the president and any candidate advocating "defeat" will lose in the primaries and caucuses.  However it is simply not true as this question shows - a question orginally written in the most GOP friendly way in 2005 to try and show that leaving Iraq was a fringe position. For example, in their Pennsylvania monthly tracking polls they asked all voters if they "Would you like to see the United States withdraw all troops immediately from Iraq?" In July 2005, leaving was a decidedly minority view (34%) with 57% opposing it.  By Election Day 2006, a plurality favored immediate withdrawal (47%) with only 38% opposing it.

Simply put, this poll should be frontpage news not because of the head-to-head results showing Guiliani and Edwards leading and Hillary in 3rd place, but that a majority of Democrats (77%) and Republicans (52%) support a withdrawal timetable more accelarated than what the Congress passed, and Republicans who will make key votes in January of 2008 are completely out of step with their president, leaders in Congress, and every major declared candidate for president on the most important issue facing the country.

Originally posted to sjclermont on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 02:00 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'm not surprised (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dufffbeer, revbludge, slothlax, BaldEagle3

    My inlaws live in rural western Iowa (the reddest part of the state) and the tide has clearly turned against the occupation in that region.  People don't talk about it much, but it's real.

  •  Hot diggety - great news! And where's yr tip jar? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    This needs to be highlighted how true.  Thanks for the alert.

  •  Throw away the don't knows and it's 57%. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BlueEngineerInOhio, SMWalt

    That's how I always do it, anyhow.  I figure if people have no opinion, we aren't going to be hearing from them later either.

  •  And yet (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The top 5 candidates they support are all pro-escalation.

    "Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is." - George W Bush

    by jfern on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 02:50:40 PM PDT

  •  Why do Iowa Repubs hate America? n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    "One does not discover new lands without consenting to leave sight of the shore for a very long time." -Andre Gide

    by pat208 on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 03:02:18 PM PDT

  •  I think the Republican Congresslemmings... (0+ / 0-)

    ...have their noses jammed too far up Bush's ass to notice or care.

    Bush doesn't listen to anyone but the competing voices in his head. The winner he calls "God" and runs with it.

    by dov12348 on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 03:07:44 PM PDT

  •  Diaried this yesterday (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:


    Don't know why it isn't getting more attention.  It's rather huge if confirmed by other polls.  It means an anti-withdrawal position is probably a losing proposition no matter what party you're in.

    •  And, the occupation is a loser (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      all over.  Remember, these are the types of communities where many of the soldiers and more importantly, the guardsmen and women live.  It's a huge deal when they get deployed.  The volunteer fire dept, the sheriff's dept, the rescue squad, and the ER staff are often left with skeleton crews when the Guard deploys from these areas.  There are a LOT of old people, and precious few able bodies to make these small towns work.  Send the able bodies to Iraq and the human infrastructure starts to come apart.  

      I was driving from the Twin Cities down to my hometown of Mason City on the afternoon that Mason City's Guard Unit was also returning home from Iraq.  They must have been just a few miles behind me.  The road was lined with flag waving well-wishers.  The first bridge across the Iowa border was embankment to embankment with flags, fire trucks, squad cars, and citizens welcoming the troops back home.  It was inspiring and saddening.  This was two or three years ago, so it was probably their first deployment coming to an end.  It absolutely broke my heart.  It would be so much worse today, knowing that this still isn't over.  

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