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Iraq: Oil Plans and Policy
Aug 01, 2005
By Tariq Shafiq
The following paper was presented by Tariq Shafiq,
at a conference organized by the Open Society Institute and London School of Economics,
"Iraq Oil Wealth: Issues of Governance and Development"
Data Table: Proven Oil Resource Base At Recovery Assumed 50% + Potential
[Note: this Data Table has been listed below after the Charts, due to HTML Formatting issues.]
http://www.mees.com/...
The conceptual conclusions derived from the Table
may be summarized as follows:
- Iraq’s cumulative oil production to-date is only a small fraction, some 8%, of its oil resource base
- Iraq’s oil reserve is on a par with world leader Saudi Arabia, and its oil resource base is not far behind.
- Iraq’s oil resource base may constitute 30% of the total Middle East major five producers and some 21% of world total reserves.
- Iraq and the Mid East majors, whose production thus far is only 22% of their total reserve resource, will be able to sustain upward production rates for many years to come.
- With Iraq’s total production at 8% of proven reserves it can continue its upward production rate to 10Mn barrels/day and beyond to 12Mn barrels/day, plowing in part of its potential reserves, when other Middle East majors will have passed their reserve midpoint and started to decline.
[Note: Data Table listed in "Iraq Oil Wealth" has been charted out below.
Afterall a picture often tells the story, better that a thousand words.]
For a Slideshow of all these Charts:
http://s158.photobucket.com/...
Country | Produced | Produced % Total | Proven + 15% + Potential Oil | Total |
UAE | 22.1 | 15 | 132.7 | 149 |
Kuwait | 34.2 | 21 | 133.2 | 159.5 |
Iran | 55.5 | 32 | 173.6 | 171.3 |
Iraq | 29.1 | 8 | 349.3 | 368.4 |
Saudi Arabia | 99.8 | 23 | 358 | 432.5 |
totals | | | | |
Mid East Majors | 240.7 | 22.00 | 1,146.80 | 1,087.20 |
World | 957 | 36 | 1,677.00 | 2,634.00 |
Data Table used in Charts above:
Proven Oil Resource Base At Recovery Assumed 50% + Potential
http://www.mees.com/...
-------------
So will the Iraqi people, in such desperate need for jobs and economic security,
after enduring so much strife and chaos, in the last several years --
Will the Iraqi people share in this phenomenal resource that lies beneath their feet?
Many are "staking their claim" to this 21st Century Goldmine,
but the Iraqi people seem to be way at the end of the line:
---
TIME Magazine
Jan. 11, 2007
By VIVIENNE WALT/PARIS
A New Oil Plan for Iraq
In his speech announcing plans to boost troop levels
in Iraq, George Bush noted that Iraq was about to pass
"legislation to share oil revenues among all Iraqis"
in order to give the citizens of that country
a share in the economy.
Indeed, the 33-page draft of that proposed
Oil & Gas Law now circulating, if passed as currently written,
would end decades of total government control over
Iraq's mammoth oil reserves and distribute oil income
among all the country's regions — a dramatic change
from the past and a potential windfall for Big Oil.
...
As written, the law would end more than three decades
of Iraq's nationalized oil industry.
It would give 10-year exploration and development rights
to foreign oil companies — at least those willing to
start drilling in a country where hundreds
of contractors have been killed and
pipelines are regularly blown up.
Once the exploration deals expire, the companies can
negotiate to produce the oil for another 20 years
in partnership with the state-owned Iraq National Oil Company.
Foreign oil companies would then pay the government 12.5% royalties
of the oil's value, and be able to export the rest of
whatever oil they find — potentially massive amounts.
Indeed, early word of the document last weekend
brought howls from some groups that believe
Iraq's government is offering Big Oil companies
overly generous production-sharing deals,
which it could regret when the war finally ends.
...
... "Platform", a watchdog organization in London
that monitors the oil and gas industries [stated:]
"The U.S. has put a lot of effort into this."
But it's not certain that U.S. or British majors
like ExxonMobil or BP will be the first big benefactors.
Both China and India signed exploration deals with Saddam
before the war, which remain in effect.
Whichever companies arrive, their finds could be massive.
The country sits atop about 115 billion barrels of oil reserves —
the fourth largest in the world after Saudi Arabia, Canada and Iran —
and about 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
What is more, much of the oil is relatively easy to reach
and cheap to pipe out. There is a catch, however:
the infrastructure is in dire shape.
http://www.time.com/...
-------
Still wondering what that "vital security interest" of the US and UK in Iraq really IS?
That interest SO important, that it dictates "the struggle in Iraq must NOT be subjected to a Timeline"?
Makes one wonder where all those windfall Oil Profits will eventually go?
Mostly likely NOT much into pocket of the Iraqi people;
Nor into the Pocket of average American or British citizen either,
given the ever-increasing cost of gasoline at the pump.
Makes one wonder WHO discovered this "untapped" Gold Mine, in the first place?
And if "Finders, Keepers" is really a solid long-term basis for running your Foreign Policy?
Makes one wonder...