This one's a little earlier this week, but the last couple of weeks' editions were a little late, so it all works out.
This may have been the most eventful week in Nebraska politics in a long time. Follow us inside for all the details on the Nebraska Senate race that just got turned completely upside down, the Republican candidate for mayor of Lincoln who doesn't want western Nebraska to have paved roads, Adrian Smith's anemic fundraising, and all the dirt on the upcoming Republican Civil War you can handle.
NE-Sen:
Grab the popcorn, folks!
Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning basically announced his intentions to run for Senate no matter what incumbent Senator Chuck Hagel decided to do. And though it was predicted by some (*ahem*), very few expected Bruning to actually challenge Hagel so soon.
It threw the entire political picture from Nebraska into chaos. Ryan at the New Nebraska Network tried to gather what comes next:
So where does that leave us? Scratching our heads and waiting to see the pieces fall into place. But first, a few thoughts:
I'm not yet convinced Bruning is an easier target for Nebraska Democrats than Hagel would be. True, it would be possible to run to Bruning's left on the war, but it's the very unpopularity of Hagel's Iraq rhetoric which has made him vulnerable in a Republican constituency that constitutes over half of the state's electorate. Bruning has the advantages of any statewide incumbent in terms of name identification and fundraising, but he's still a relatively fresh face who has managed to avoid isolating large sections of his idealogical base.
Then again, I just got schooled by Harold Anderson, so what do I know?
Meanwhile, Kyle at the NNN picks up on Lee Terry's implied endorsement of Fred Thompson for President, along with Bruning's announcement, and wonders if Chuck Hagel's lost his hold on the Nebraska GOP:
So, what exactly is going on here? Has Hagel's continued criticism of President Bush's Iraq policy so completely destroyed his relationship with the Republican base that his fellow GOP politicians don't really care about offending him? Does Terry know something we don't - that Hagel has ruled out a Presidential bid? That Hagel is angling for a rumored indepedent campaign for the Vice-Presidency with billionaire New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg? That Hagel is retiring? That Hagel is resigning himself to seeking re-election....much to Bruning's chagrin?
Hell, I don't know. I'm just a dude who asks questions. But, clearly Hagel is no longer the end-all-be-all in Nebraska Republican politics. Although he served as something of a king-maker for Dave Heineman and attempted to do the same for Pete Ricketts, his national ambitions have left an open flank at home that others are proving more than willing to exploit.
The opening shot from the pro-Hagel side? The Republican blog Leavenworth Street dug up some old articles that Jon Bruning wrote for the Daily Nebraskan, the UNL student newspaper, as a 23 year-old law student. Suffice it to say that they weren't exactly in line with the ultra-conservative stance Bruning is taking right now. Kyle @ the NNN focuses on Hagel's comments to the media, thinly veiled shots at his critics, as quoted by the Omaha World-Herald:
"I don't accept that. I just don't agree with that. Those who make those kinds of statements maybe should go to Iraq and spend a little time (there) like I have.
"Maybe if they understood a little about the military, had any experience in the military, it might help them understand this better," added Hagel, a Vietnam veteran.
But Mr. Michaelis, himself a former columnist for the Daily Nebraskan, ignored the real story, as an intrepid commenter at Leavenworth Street uncovered his ruthless plot to run for Senate as a Republican in 15 years by first posing as a liberal blogger (and President of Nebraska Young Democrats):
I can understand people having evolving views over a decade or so, but this much is a little hard to swallow. Can you imagine Kyle Michaelis 15 years from now launching a primary challenge from the right of the most conservative member of the Senate? (yeah, yeah, I know - you don’t think Hagel is conservative - whatever).
But make no mistake, this goes deeper than simply Bruning disagreeing with Hagel's rhetoric on the war. Bruning is one of the sole remaining Republicans who came out on the losing side of the Heineman/Osborne primary last year. This one promises to be a lot bloodier, and the bad blood goes back a lot further than 2006:
Bruning’s role in this is one of ruthless ambition - not unlike Heineman’s. The difference is, Bruning attached himself to the man he saw as the rising star, while Hagel made his man the star. The giant killer. And, even if Heineman didn’t hate Bruning’s guts already for launching an investigation into his office, or endorsing his opponent, Heineman owes Hagel his political career. Now, Bruning - ever the political opportunist - sees an opening as the king of the Nebraska Republican Party has alienated himself from Nebraska Republicans by saying things that make sense. One last opportunity to overthrow the Hagel/Heineman crowd and make himself the king of the Nebraska GOP.
Make no mistake, this is a sordid lot, a mix of unsavory characters known as the Nebraska Republican Party. And they’re about to go for each other’s throats. Grab the popcorn. This is gonna be fun.
Wait a minute, didn't he want to run for Mayor of NYC?
Bob Kerrey apparently conducted some polling of Nebraskans to see where he stood for a potential return to the Senate. He told the Omaha World-Herald he's 99% certain that he won't run, and that he only would run if Hagel was not running - going further to say that if Hagel did run, he'd write him a check.
So, what’s the state of play, now?
* Our strongest Democratic candidate, Mike Fahey, has said in no uncertain terms that he will not run if Chuck Hagel runs for reelection. Bob Kerrey has now said the same. He also says there’s only a 1% chance, if Hagel does not run, that he’d run for Senate.
* At the moment, Chuck Hagel is looking very vulnerable in his own party. Between weak fundraising numbers and Jon Bruning’s challenge, retirement might be looking like a pretty good option for Hagel right now.
* If Hagel runs, and loses in the primary, as of right now, we have no candidate even sniffing at the race under that scenario. And Bruning, especially if he’s running against Hagel, is quite beatable in a general election. Provided, of course, we have a candidate who knows what he/she is doing.
Lincoln:
What do you need roads for, anyway?
We're only 9 days out from election day, when Chris Beutler will - if all goes as planned - defeat Ken Svoboda to become the next mayor of Lincoln. Svoboda today continued a disturbing trend among Nebraska Republicans in general and Lincoln Republicans in particular - a stance that is absolutely anti-government and anti-public good at its base, and, worse, in this instance, a giant "fuck you" to everyone who lives west of Lincoln. I'll let Kyle tell the story:
From the front page of the Nebraska Republican Party's website:
[...]
During his chairmanship of the I-80 Commission, Svoboda proposed a seven-year moratorium on new, non-Interstate-related road construction in the western two-thirds of Nebraska. During that time, more dollars would go to the eastern one-third of the state, especially Lincoln and Omaha.
The Lincoln Journal-Star adds of Svoboda's proposed moratorium:
Mayoral candidate Ken Svoboda called for a seven-year moratorium on new road construction in the western two-thirds of Nebraska, except for on the interstate.
If more state road construction dollars flowed into eastern Nebraska, namely Lincoln and Omaha, those two economic engines would be able to produce even more revenue for the rest of the state, he reasoned.
Svoboda said he first proposed the admittedly "politically incorrect" idea as chairman of the I-80 Commission....
[Mayoral candidate Chris Beutler] said he agrees that more road dollars should go to Lincoln, but said Svoboda’s call for a moratorium would just alienate western lawmakers.
The plan put forward by Svoboda and the Republican Party should not just "alientate western lawmakers." Rather, this plan should be denounced and apology demanded by every political leader, every agricultural worker, and every community activist in the state.
Honestly, I don't know who Svoboda thinks he's fooling. There's nothing "politically incorrect" about this selfish, stupid and short-sighted political insanity.
The Nebraska Democratic Party chimed in as well:
In the race for mayor of Lincoln, I’ve said a lot about leadership. I believe it is the fundamental difference between the two candidates. One, Chris Beutler, has shown for more than 24 years that he has the fortitude and vision to lead our state forward. There is no doubt that he will bring that to the mayor’s office.
Beutler’s opponent, Ken Svoboda, brings the exact opposite to the race. Years and years of excuses, the inability to meet the terms of contracts with the city, and an utter failure to present any results from his years on the city council.
So, when I opened up the Lincoln Journal Star yesterday morning, I shouldn’t have been surprised. But, even Ken Svoboda has gone further than I thought he could. Not only has he insulted the voters of Lincoln, now he’s bringing his lack of leadership and vision to the entire state.
In the article, Svoboda calls for a moratorium on all road construction in western Nebraska, with the exception of the interstate. Apparently, he wants to make sure he can drive to Denver without hitting any potholes.
NE-03
A couple of great takes on Adrian Smith's fundraising this quarter, from John at UNO Dems (who's probably even a bigger junkie for this stuff than I am), and Lisa at Smith Watch, who as usual provides a tremendous detailed account. I encourage you to read both accounts. The long and short of it is: Smith took a whole lot of PAC money and not a whole lot of small individual contributions. He's still not that far ahead of Kleeb in COH, and Kleeb didn't raise a dime this quarter.
That's all for this week. See ya next time.