The first quarter of fundraising for the 2007-08 election cycle is over and the campaigns were supposed to file reports with the FEC on Sunday. I say supposed to because 47 incumbents' summaries were unavailable on the FEC website as of this writing (not counting the 4 we know are out). Of the remaining 384, I looked for clues about who raised little in the quarter (I defined little as under $25,000). When the remaining reports are up, I will update this.
I then eliminated those incumbents who represent districts whose net partisan makeup is +30 for either party, on the logic that those districts simply won't be changing hands, even in an open seat race--even an open seat race where the dominant party runs a potted plant. So, while we know that Luis Gutierrez (D IL-04) won't be running again, a Democrat will succeed him. Overall, in addition to the two Dems and one GOPer in districts that could theoretically flip who we know are out (Hunter (R) CA-52, Udall (D) CO-02, and Meehan (D) MA-05), I found that there were 26 GOPers and 13 Dems who raised under $25K in the quarter. Here they are with my thoughts (ranked in order of likelihood their district would flip if there was an open seat, not in order of who is most likely to retire):
Repubs
Jim Saxton (NJ 03): I haven't heard any specific rumors about Saxton, but he fits to a tee the profile of the type of retiree I expect to see in 2008: he is a longtime GOPer from a moderate region trending to the Dems facing the dual unpleasant prospects of continued life in the minority and less and less secure reelection battles. He raised only $23K in the first quarter (he still has almost $1.2M on hand) and may be thinking of quitting. If he does, this will be the #1 pickup opportunity in the nation; Gore won here by 12 points and Kerry narrowly lost. (I have the Dem performance in the district at 53%)
Bill Young (FL 10): Young has been one of the GOP veterans on everyone's retirement watch. He raised only $16K, which will do nothing to stop the rumors. If he retires, this seat will be at or near the top of the list of Democratic pickup opportunies in the country; the seat went for Gore in 2000 and just narrowly for Bush in 2004. It's net partisan makeup is 51% Dem.
Chris Smith (NJ 04): Like colleague Jim Saxton, Smith is a northeastern veteran GOP officeholder. While Smith has a more Republican district than Saxton has, Smith raised only $943 in the quarter and has only $205K on hand. I suspect he's out, and the district is winnable: Gore won it by 4 points, Kerry lost by 12. I have the Dem performance number as 49%.
Mike Rogers (AL 03): I have not heard that Rogers is considering retirement at all, but he raised only $20K (with over $500K on hand). It may be that he is simply spoiled and lazy from his lack of tough competition since 2002. Still, his district is winnable by a Dem (46% Dem on my index).
Ralph Regula (OH 16): It is a very good bet that Regula is retiring. He raised only $2,000 and has only $91K on hand. His district is 46% Dem.
Gus Bilirakis (FL 09): Somewhat surprisingly, the freshman raised only $21K with $43K on hand. He had a somewhat tough race last time and while I doubt he steps down after one term, this number may well interest potential challengers. The district is 45.5% Dem.
Candice Miller (MI 10): Miller has often been a rising star in Michigan GOP politics. After the GOP gerrymander for the 2002 election, she slid seamlessly from the Secretary of State position into Congress, replacing David Bonior, who was forced into a losing gubernatorial primary. The NRSC tried to recruit Miller to challenge Sen. Debbie Stabenow in 2006, but she declined. Surprisingly, Miller raised only $21K in Q1 (with $827K on hand). I doubt she's stepping down, but we'll see. The district is 45.5% Dem.
Ted Poe (TX 02): This is Nick Lampson's original seat, drawn by Tom DeLay & friends to take on a Republican tilt, and won by Poe in 2004. The district is not completely unwinnable, however; Lampson kept it somewhat close (57-43) in a strong GOP year. Overall, it is about a 56-44 GOP district.
John Shadegg (AZ 03): The veteran GOPer raised only $19K and has only $12K on hand. He lost a battle for the leadership to John Boehner last year and may well be ready to hang it up. The district definitely tilts GOP (43.5% Dem), but can be won under the right circumstances.
Tim Johnson (IL 15): Johnson never raises much money, so his $17K is not out of the ordinary. His district is 43.5% Dem.
Dan Lungren (CA 03): Lungren is the former state AG who managed to lose to Gray Davis by 20 points in the 1998 Gov. race. Proving once again that they like their incumbents, the GOP rewarded Lungren with this Northern CA seat, made much more GOP in the remap (in order to make CA 01 a relatively safe Dem seat; previously both had been roughly even battleground seats). Lungren raised only $2K ($421K on hand). If he's out, there is a chance to steal the seat (I have it as a 57-43 GOP seat).
Ron Paul (TX 14): Paul is running for President; he has not said whether he is also running for reelection. He raised only $8K for his House race in Q1 ($145K on hand). He increasingly is at odds with the authoritarian Republican Party and may well be ready to go. Dem Shane Sklar gave him a real race in this 58-42 GOP district in 2006.
Tom Campbell (CA 48): Campbell is a newcomer to Congress who raised only $22K and has $33K on hand. I seriously doubt he's retiring, and even if he did, this district is tough (41.5% Dem).
Steve King (IA 05): King has been mentioned as a possible challenger to Sen. Tom Harkin. He's not going to do it raising $16K and having $14K on hand. He may not even be running for reelection. The district is a 59-41 GOP split.
Kenny Marchant (TX 24): Marchant is one of the DeLay babies who came in in 2004. The fact that he raised only $17K is probably due to the fact that he's had no real competition--ever. The district is a 59-41 GOP split and can be won in a perfect storm.
Duncan Hunter (CA 52): Hunter is officially out, ending his career in a quixotic bid for the Presidency. The district is 59.5-40.5 GOP.
Peter Hoekstra (MI 02): Hoekstra raised $24K. I have not heard any retirement rumors, but would not be surprised if the veteran GOPer called it a career. He raised $24K and has $198K on hand. The district is 60-40 GOP.
Henry Brown (SC 01): Brown won this seat in 2002 when previous incumbent Mark Sanford ran (successfully) for governor. He raised only $12K (with $771K on hand). I would not be surprised if he retires; winning the district is another matter; it is a 60-40 GOP district.
Tom Tancredo (CO 06): Tancredo is running a quixotic campaign for the Presidency (much like Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul) and has yet to announce whether he will also seek reelection. He raised only $12K and has $71K on hand. This district is rough (39.5% Dem) and the argument could be made that the Dems are better off facing this one-note anti-immigration nut than facing a normal Repub in an open seat race.
Ralph Hall (TX 04): Hall is about 800 years old and switched parties to save his job in 2004. I can't imagine he feels much like hanging around in the minority. He raised $12K and has only $6K on hand. I'm betting strongly that he's out. The district is 61-39 GOP on paper, but has a strong Dem tradition.
Other GOPers whose districts are just barely winnable in the best of circumstances
Todd Platts (PA 19): $14K/$30K (District: 62.5-37.5)
Jean Schmidt (OH 02): $20K/$17K (District: 63.5-36.5) (we're MUCH better off with her as the GOP nominee)
Doc Hastings (WA 04): $3K/$132K (District: 63.5-36.5) (prediction: he's out following the revelations of his role in USAgate)
Roscoe Bartlett (MD 06): $8K/$202K (District: 63.5-36.5)
Barbara Cubin (WY AL): $18K/$9K (District: 70-30) (as with Schmidt, Cubin is a GOP anchor)
GOPers from winnable districts whose 1Q Reports are unavailable
Jeff Flake (AZ 06)
Cliff Stearns (FL 06) (I could see a retirement here)
John Duncan (TN 02) (Here too, but this isn't really all that winnable)
Marsha Blackburn (TN 07)
Dems
Bart Gordon (TN 06): Gordon is one of a dwindling number of longtime Southern Dems holding a seat that now tilts GOP. He raised only $10K and has $384K on hand. A retirement would definitely cause problems in holding the seat; the district is 55-45 GOP.
Vic Snyder (AR 02): Snyder never raises (or has) any money until right before the election, so I wouldn't read anything into the fact that he raised $8K and has a big 0 on hand. The district is very even: 50.5 GOP-49.5 Dem.
Jim Cooper (TN 05): Cooper came in in 2002 when Bob Clement ran for the Senate. He's raised only $5K with $44K on hand. Still, this is a Dem district on the order of 55-45.
Solomon Ortiz (TX 27): Ortiz has raised $13K with $31K on hand. I have the district as 55-45 Dem, but it's probably more than that now, and will be even more after the conclusion of the Tom Tancredo Presidential Primary campaign.
Tom Udall (NM 03): Udall won the district--the most Democratic in NM--in 1998 following a fluke GOP win in a special election to replace Bill Richardson. Udall raised $11K and has $713K on hand. He probably is not retiring, and even if he is, the district is 55.5-44.5 Dem.
Dennis Kucinich (OH 10): Speaking of quixotic presidential bids... Seriously, I would bet Kucinich runs again; he raised only $14K for his House race and has $2K on hand, but I suspect that his cash is in the Pres. account and will be swirtched over in time to make his filing deadline. If not, the district is 58-42 Dem.
Julia Carson (IN 07): Carson always has tough races and has had health problems. So I take the fact that she raised only $3K ($153K on hand) as a sign she's hanging it up. The district is a 58-42 Dem split.
Peter Welch (VT AL): The freshman took in only $3K (with $302K on hand). I seriously doubt he's leaving after 1 term; I suspect he is just super confident. The district is 59.5-40.5 Dem.
John Tierney (MA 06): It's hard to believe, but 13 years ago a Republican held this seat. Tierney took it in 1996. He's raised $18K (with over a million on hand). It's conceivable that he retires, and it's conceivable that a GOPer could make a race in this 60-40 Dem district. Likely? No.
Other Dems whose districts are just barelt loseable
Jane Harman (CA 36): $13K/$188K (District: 60.5-39.5 Dem)
Mel Watt (NC 12): $5K/$56K (District: 61-39 Dem)
Susan Davis (CA 53): $1K/$403K (District: 62-38 Dem)
Louise Slaughter (NY 28): $22K/$278K (District: 64.5-35.5 Dem)
Dems from loseable districts whose reports are unavailable
Raul Grijalva (AZ 07)
Mike Thompson (CA 01)
John Salazar (CO 03)
Allen Boyd (FL 02)
Jim Marshall (GA 08)
Mazie Hirono (HI 02)
Bruce Braley (IA 01)
Joe Donnelly (IN 02)
Baron Hill (IN 09)
John Yarmuth (KY 03)
Ben Chandler (KY 06)
Charlie Melancon (LA 03)
Ed Markey (MA 07)
Dutch Ruppersberger (MD 02)
Mike Michaud (ME 02)
Dale Kildee (MI 05)
Tim Walz (MN 01)
Russ Carnahan (MO 03)
David Price (NC 04)
Steve Rothman (NJ 09)
Shelley Berkley (NV 01)
Tim Bishop (NY 01)
Anthony Weiner (NY 09)
Dan Boren (OK 02)
Jason Altmire (PA 04)
Patrick Murphy (PA 08)
Stephanie Herseth (SD AL)
Jay Inslee (WA 01)
Rick Larsen (WA 02)
Norm Dicks (WA 06)
David Obey (WI 07)
Nick Rahall (WV 03)