A newly-released Zogby poll has Hillary Clinton leading among presumed likely Democratic Primary voters in South Carolina:
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton enjoys a solid lead over her top two Democratic rivals among South Carolinians likely to vote in the Democratic primary early next year, a new Barrington Broadcasting/Zogby International telephone poll shows.
Clinton wins 33% support, while Illinois Sen. Barack Obama holds second-place with 26% support. John Edwards, who was born in South Carolina, is close behind in third at 21%. Clinton’s strength stems in part from her following among women, 40% of whom support her, compared to 25% for Obama and 18% for Edwards. The race is much tighter among men, with Obama holding a slight edge at 27%, followed by Edwards at 25% support and Clinton at 24%.
So Hillary leads in South Carolina now, albeit not by any huge margin. My own thoughts after the break.
Presuming the early primary schedule does not change, South Carolina will be the fourth and last of the early contests, before the boatload of primaries on February 5th. The current early schedule is as follows:
January 14, 2008 Iowa
January 19, 2008 Nevada
January 22, 2008 New Hampshire
January 29, 2008 South Carolina
The current margin between the candidates is narrow enough in both South Carolina and New Hampshire, that the winner of the Iowa caucuses may be able to ride the subsequent barrage of free publicity to victories in the later contests... as has often happened in the past. The odds-on favorite to win the Iowa caucuses at this time is John Edwards, who also has moved up into a tie for second place in New Hampshire polling.
The question for South Carolina is whether they will become a "me too" primary, or whether that is a state where another candidate besides the front-runner (if any) will be able to make a stand and scratch out a victory prior to the Feb. 5 'Super Tuesday'. It may become the last state where all the leading candidates fully engage with voters 'on the ground', but they'll only have a week or two to do it, depending on how they prioritize these contests. If the outcome in South Carolina receives sufficient media attention, it is possible that a win there could prove more important than a win in Iowa or New Hampshire, as it is the last single contest leading into that huge semi-national primary on Feb. 5th.
If one candidate manages to win all four early contests, then of course the race for momentum will be virtually over, and it will be difficult for the also-rans to win ANY of the February 5th contests... but I see strong possibilities for split results among these early states. Because they are so closely spaced, after Iowa the candidates may have choices to make about where they are going to spend their time. Maybe, after an Edwards Iowa win, Edwards and Hillary are busy duking it out in Nevada, while Obama concentrates fully on New Hampshire, slipping by both of them there?.... or makes his firewall instead in South Carolina, spending a solid two weeks lining up support there while Edwards and Clinton fight for New Hampshire?
Of course its all speculation at this point, but one can see possibilities for mixed results. Much may depend on the outcomes of all those debates between then and now, and how much momentum any candidate gains from winning in Iowa.
I personally strongly support John Edwards, and I sure wouldn't trade our current position in this race, leading in Iowa, with any of the others, bucketloads of cash or not. The amount of nationwide media exposure generated by a victory in Iowa is probably worth more money than either Clinton or Obama will have raised at that point... but either one could still manage a victory elsewhere that could halt his momentum.
It'll all be very interesting to watch.