Bad news on the global warming front. From Science , news 5/2/07 (subscription):
With its wreath of sea ice shrinking ever smaller over the last half-century, the Arctic has served as global warming's canary in the coal mine. By 2050 to 2100, according to climate model predictions, Arctic summers will be ice-free for the first time in about a million years. But new research reveals the ice has been vanishing about 3 times faster than the models have predicted, shifting the inevitable meltdown about 30 years ahead of schedule.
But wait'll you see the spin the Anchorage Daily News has put on it! (Below the fold.)
Cross-posted at ePluribusMedia.
Today's Anchorage Daily News has picked up the story:
One report noted there was less Arctic sea ice in April than had ever been recorded that month since satellite imagery of the northern ocean began in 1979. Another found that the melting of the Arctic ice cap is proceeding faster than anyone expected.
The net result is that predictions about the rate of ice melting are being revised. Recent predictions that it could ALL be gone as soon as 2050 are already looking too optimistic. At the current rate of melting, it's likely happen much sooner.
Drastic sounding scenarios such as those grew only more credible last week as scientists who measure the Arctic ice reported a new low for the month of April. Satellite imagery that can peer through clouds found only 13.9 million square kilometers of ice.
ALBEDO: The Planet's Reflectivity
The thing about it is, reduction of sea ice doesn't just tell us that global warming is happening, its disappearance also causes warming to happen more quickly. That's because of something called albedo, or the reflectivity of the earth's surface. White surface, like ice, reflects more solar energy away, back to space. Open water is much darker in color, and absorbs more of the energy of the sun's rays. For the numbers geeks reading this diary, the Science article provides more detail:
Stroeve's team compared results from the IPCC's 18 climate models with data from aircraft and ship reports and satellite measurements. The team found that, on average, the IPCC models simulated ice losses in September (when ice retreats to its annual minimum) at 2.5% per decade from 1953 to 2006. In contrast, the real-world observations show September ice actually diminished by about 7.8% per decade during that period. This suggests current model projections are overly conservative, and summer sea ice may disappear considerably earlier than thought, the authors conclude online 1 May in Geophysical Research Letters.
Meanwhile, officials in Alaska are up in arms about the prospect of the Polar Bear being listed as endangered. Yesterday's Anchorage Daily News:
Gov. Sarah Palin and a majority of legislators strongly oppose the listing, and say the acknowledged intent behind it -- curbing greenhouse gas emissions nationally -- should be debated in another forum, not a law aimed at protecting animals.
It's worth reading the whole article. It respresents some energetic global warming denying. Here's one snippet to give you a taste:
The official state testimony claims sea ice is melting, but the Fish and Wildlife Service picked out the most extreme climate models to predict future effects. State officials say scientists disagree over humans' role in warming, a more comprehensive evaluation is needed and polar bears can adapt to less ice.
MISSING THE POINT
Anchorage Daily News at least partly misses the point, as it attempts to make lemonade of of the latest crop of lemons. The melting of sea ice means shipping lanes will be open several weeks longer, thus shortening the season for premium cost deliveries of food and other essentials by air. So consumer prices will be lower. And furthermore:
[S]ummer seismic crews employed by oil companies won't be hampered as much by ice. Said [Kathleen] Cole [spokesman for the National Weather Service]: "I think everybody is going to be happy about that."
Global warming will create conditions for more intensive oil exploration? That's really missing the point, isn't it? Sounds like something that cranky ol' Ted Stevens (R-AK) or James Inhofe (R-OK) would crow about on the Senate floor. Mama mia!