Today AG Gonzales mentioned "Traffic Patterns" regarding email released in the USAGate probe. Someone talking to him must be reading DailyKos.
Below you will find the current analysis of the DOJ documents, completed by 18 Kos volunteers and myself.
I am responsible for the analysis and am the "custodian of the database". Some of this analysis has been diaried previously. Here, I present the big, all encompassing picture for your enjoyment.
Here are the central talking points:
1. DOJ is withholding information, Obstructing Justice.
Although 9229 pages of documents containing 2086 unique emails to 5748 recipients have been disclosed, too much information has been withheld for no legitimate reason. Redactions, withheld emails and missing emails likely contain information that Congress and the American people have a right to know.
2. Executive privilege claims are contradicted by partially released documents.
All but 1 of the known withhheld documents contain emails sent from White House personnel who have not already sent or emails released publicly.
Withholding a fraction of these documents suggests cover-up.
Introduction:
18 volunteers and I became concerned with the US Attorney firing and the apparent politicization of the DOJ. We formed an informal network to extract email information from the released HJC documents to help investigation into this issue. I headed the project in my free time. With respect to my work on this project, I am a private citizen with no financial, material or other support from any entity, private or public.
In addition to content, other types of data analysis can be profitable.
The NSA (for good and bad) uses data mining, electronic traffic analysis and statistics to evaluate data:
"if somebody is talking to Al Qaeda, we want to know why."
George Bush on NSA electronic traffic analysis and eavesdropping
Indeed, Attorney General Gonzales referred to email traffic patterns in his testimony before the House Judiciary Committee on 5/10/07, stating that email traffic patterns can shed light on the involvement of DOJ personnel in firing-related issues. As such, the following analysis garners some of the information amenable to objective analysis is the DOJ released documents.
The most important caveat of traffic analysis is a complete database. To this end, we have tried to be as accurate as possible, and the attached excel spreadsheet contains referenced links to each entry. Critically important to accurate analysis is full production of documents. Unfortunately, there is graphical and traffic evidence of incomplete production by the DOJ, as well as declared withholding of numerous documents. Couple this non-production with large-scale redaction, and complete analysis is hampered. Paraphrasing the words of Patrick Fitzgerald regarding a different Administration situation, “sand can be thrown in the eyes of the umpire”.
Thus, when defenders of the Adminstration tout that 10,000 pages of documents have been released, this figure is meaningless unless unredacted documents, and ALL documents, are available to investigators. Because we absolutely do not have all documents (by administration admission), this analysis had strived to get as much information as possible from the documents released, which are presumably the most favorable to the administration.
Methods:
Regardless of content, unique emails in the HJC document dumps were tabulated by 18 volunteers into an excel spreadsheet, extracting date, sender, recipient, the first words of the email, as well as content. This spreadsheet is attached and is referenced so that our work can be confirmed and checked for accuracy. The following is what we found:
Evidence for Wide Scale document withholding from Traffic Analysis
Congress requested any and all records from the DOJ concerning US Attorney firings.
Included in the documents produced by the DOJ and posted on the HJC website are thousands of emails dating from April 29, 2004 through March 8, 2007 (HJC DOCS ). Intriguingly, we have heard about an 18-day gap, likened by Senator Patrick Leahy to the infamous 18-minute gap on the Nixon tapes pointing to deliberate withholding of emails (The Gap). We also now know that perhaps 5 million emails are missing from White House records (Missing emails), suggesting a similar problem could be facing investigators in the Prosecutor Purge. Finally, we know that some emails “in the custody of Kyle Sampson” have not been released fully to the HJC.
Lost email can be accidental and random, and it can also be “lost deliberately”. The following graphs suggest deliberate non-production of emails regarding the US Attorney firing. Examining the email trail suggests that the 18 day gap is just the tip of the iceberg of non-production. To get a picture of the pattern of email traffic revealed by the DOJ, I did the following:
For this analysis, the number of unique emails for a given date was totaled, and if multiple recipients were identified, these were also included in the total. Monthly total emails (Figure 1-2), as well as total numbers of senders and recipients (Figure 3-4) were then graphed:
Figure 1: Unique emails by date
Figure 2: Unique emails by date, ending with 12/06
Figure 3: Total Senders and Recipients by date
Figure 4: Total Senders and Recipients by date, ending with 12/06
Analysis:
Over 2006, there is progressively increasing email traffic within the DOJ pertaining to US Attorney firing/replacement. Strikingly, in contrast to trends in the data, there is a paucity of email produced for September, October and November 2006. To wit, in the 3 months prior to September, there was an average of 123 Unique emails per month sent to an average of 285 total recipients. In December, before the scandal was widely publicized, there were 126 unique emails sent to 229 total recipients.
In September, October and November, there were an average of 54 emails sent to an average of 93 recipients.
These data document a surprising reduction in email traffic during September, October and November, 2006.
We see significant email traffic in June-September indicating significant interest and DOJ resources devoted to this issue. It suddenly drops in September, October and November, immediately before they are going to undertake the unprecedented move of firing 7 US Attorneys. They knew it was unprecedented and that there would be political ramifications, so it is difficult to envision October and November as months in which internal DOJ attention to the upcoming firing would decrease.
Importantly, the List was not finalized in mid-September. On September 13, 2006, Kyle Sampson emailed Harriet Meyers with a list recommending 9 attorneys be replaced (The List). David Iglesias was not on that list. On November 7, Kyle Sampson drafted an updated list, suggesting there was interest and work to produce the list between September and November. Further, on November 27, AG Gonzales attended a one-hour meeting to discuss the upcoming firings on December 7. It is hard to believe that there was not extensive planning in preparation for this meeting. Along these lines, On November 21, an email from DOJ employee Tasia Scolinos to Catherine Martin in the White House outlines a potential talking (Making excuses)-
“The one common link here is that three of them are along the southern border so you could make the connection that DOJ is unhappy with the immigration prosecution numbers in those districts."
Thus, it is apparent that there was discussion and work among multiple DOJ employees with respect to US Attorney firings during October and November, and it is very surprising that the email traffic does not reflect this.
On the other hand, the apparent reduction of email traffic in October-November 2006 is consistent with incomplete document production. Taken together with the timeline evidence that active discussions were ongoing during October and November before the firing, these data strongly suggest that despite congressional requests, The DOJ documents are still incomplete.
Possible explanations for the data gap include:
1. Emails in Oct/Nov 2006 have been “selectively lost”
2. Emails in Oct/Nov 2006 exist but are deliberately non-produced
- DOJ personnel were actively involved in the elections or other issues, and no work was done on the upcoming firing.
DOJ traffic analysis:
To determine who in the DOJ was most actively involved in issues pertaining to the USA firing, we counted the emails released to see who was sending and receiving. We reasoned that the person sending the most emails before the firing was likely central to the firing.
The largest sender of UNIQUE emails in the period before the firing was Kyle Sampson, followed by Monica Goodling.
Table 1: Unique Emails sent and received by DOJ personnel up to and including 12/7/06
Thus, Kyle Sampson and Monica Goodling, by email traffic, sent the most firing related email in the DOJ. (note: this is a select group of the most active emailers in the DOJ)
To determine where emails were being sent, we next evaluated specific recipients of Sampson and Goodling email. This analysis includes duplicate emails sent to multiple recipients and counts them separately.
Kyle Sampson:
Sampson sent 99 emails to WH personnel and 483 to DOJ personnel. Before the firing he sent 42 and 70 to WH and DOJ personnel, respectively. Thus, before the firing 37% of his email pertaining to the firing was to the White House. After the firing, he sent 57 and 413 emails to WH and DOJ personnel, respectively. 12 % of his email following the firing was to the White House. These numbers reflect the following personnel:
Table 2: Recipients of all of Kyle Sampson’s Email
It should be noted that the principal recipients of Sampson’s emails before the firing were Monica Goodling, Bill Mercer, Michael Elston, Bill Kelley, Harriet Miers, and Scott Jennings. Of all of the emails sent to the White House by Sampson before the firing, 67% were to Kelley, Meirs and Jennings. After the firing, the email pattern changed, and Sampson sent his White House emails primarily to Chris Oprison.
Figure 5: Sampson’s emails to White House before the firing (Blue Bars) were primarily to Kelley, Jennings, and Miers (“the big 3”). After the firing, emails to Jennings ceased, and most Sampson WH emails were to Oprison.
Monica Goodling:
Sent 22 emails to WH personnel and 235 to DOJ personnel. Before the firing she sent 19 and 70 to WH and DOJ personnel, respectively and after the firing sent 3 and 165 to WH and DOJ personnel respectively. Thus before the firing 18% of her email pertaining to the firing was to the White House. 1.7% of her email following the firing was to the White House. These numbers reflect the following personnel:
Table 3. Recipients of all of Monica Goodling’s Email
No other DOJ personnel sent anywhere near the volume or fraction of emails to White House recipients before or after the firing. The only DOJ personnel to send any email to the main White House recipients (Miers, Kelley, Jennings; see below), was Paul Moschella; he sent one email after the firing to William Kelley.
These data show that Kyle Sampson and Monica Goodling devoted a substantial portion of their firing-related email to White House correspondence in the time period before 12/8/06, and the principal White House recipients were Kelley, Miers and Jennings. Of these 3 Monica Goodling sent emails to Jennings only, and Most of that pertained to installing Tim Griffin as USA Arkansas.
The email traffic patterns of WH personnel:
The following graphs of White House email traffic show the main senders of email before and after the firing:
Figure 6. Pre-firing White House email traffic, most active.
Figure 7. Post-firing White House email traffic, most active.
As can be seen from the graphs, prior to the firing, Jennings, Kelley, and Miers sent and received the most email pertinent to attorney firing. After the firing, Chris Oprison becomes the main White House emailer.
The 3 principal senders of email from the White House before the firing were Kelley, Jennings and Miers.
They sent the vast majority of their emails to Kyle Sampson and Monica Goodling. Of 22 emails sent by these 3 to DOJ personnel before the firing, all went to Goodling and Sampson but one by Harriet Miers to Paul McNulty. After the firing, of 10 emails by these 3 to DOJ, all went to Goodling and Sampson but one email from Jennings went to Courtney Elwood.
Table 4- Recipients of emails from Scott Jennings, Harriet Miers, and Bill Kelley
Thus, It is clear that the principal White House emailers were communicating almost exclusively with Kyle Sampson and Monica Goodling regarding the USA firing.
Withheld emails suggests obstruction and cover-up:
Congress requested ALL documents pertaining to the USA firing. The House Judiciary committee has published the documents produced by the DOJ in response to their inquiry, as linked above.
On April 29, 2007, we learned that a portion of emails “in the custody of Kyle Sampson” were being withheld from Congress. As some meta-data regarding these emails was released, we incorporated the data into the email database for analysis.
In the HJC document dump, there are 9229 pages of documents containing 2086 unique emails to 5748 total
recipients. The DOJ revealed that they are withholding 171 documents “in the custody of Kyle Sampson”.
In these 171 documents are 160 unique emails to 470 recipients. As a percent of the total, 7.7% of all unique emails have been withheld. These documents are all subsequent to the firing. If there is a cover-up, we reasoned clues are to be had here.
The below graph shows the percentage of all emails in the post-firing period that are being withheld by the DOJ for selected personnel in the DOJ and White House.
Figure 8. Percentage of known emails 12/8/06-3/8/07 that are withheld from congress.
From this graph, we can see evidence of widespread withholding of documents. It is interesting to note that spreadsheet of withheld documents lists Kyle Sampson as “the custodian” of the withheld documents. This focuses attention on him as being obstructive. However, as can be seen above, these emails were sent to numerous individuals who all should have kept copies in light of Congressional instructions to do so. There are 31 individuals besides sampson who have received copies of withheld emails at the DOJ, White House and Congress.
We next focused our analysis on Kyle Sampson, Monica Goodling and the White House. In the publicly released documents from 12/8/06-3/8/06, there are 82 unique emails sent by Kyle Sampson to 265 recipeints. Over the same period, the DOJ has withheld 118 unique emails sent by Kyle Sampson to 237 recipients. Thus the content of 59% of Kyle Sampson’s unique emails has been withheld from congress. When we look at withholding of specific traffic, the following information is obtained: Emails from Sampson to 31 different individuals are being withheld (See table 6 below). See Figure 9 below for graph of Sampson’s withheld email to select White house personnel following the firing.
Figure 9. Kyle Sampson’s withheld emails as a percentage of emails sent to the individuals or groups identified above. Big 3 are Miers, Kelley, and Jennings. “Other” category includes congressional staffers as listed in the table above.
With respect to Monica Goodling, 66% of her post-firing emails to White House recipients have been withheld, including 100% (2 of 2) sent to Chris Oprison.
Interestingly, the DOJ is also hiding the only email sent after the firing by Sarah Taylor, Karl Rove’s deputy, and all 4 emails by Sampson to Taylor Following the firing. They are also hiding 20% of the email sent by J. Scott Jennings, another Rove deputy, in this time frame (1 of 5). The withheld Jennings email, dated 2/28/07, is addressed to Kyle Sampson, Karl Rove, Fred Fielding, Dana Perino, Kevin Sullivan, and Sarah Taylor.
We also learn that the DOJ is withholding 100% of emails sent after the firing by James Comey, the prior Deputy AG, who drew up a firing list substantially different than Sampson’s, apparently one based on merit, rather than White House/RNC priorities.
The other interesting data in the withheld documents is the revelation that 32% of the unique emails sent by DOJ spokesman, Brian Roehrkasse are being withheld. 9 of 28 Roehrkasse emails to 49 of 109 recipients are sequestered in the custody of Kyle Sampson. Considering he has released numerous reports suggesting that AG Gonzales was truthful in testimony, one wonders if his hidden emails refute this assertion.
Document production and the case for Executive Privilege
The DOJ has released 9229 documents, and is withholding from congress 171 documents containing 160 unique emails to 470 recipients. What is the basis for selectively withholding these documents from congress and the American people? One argument that has been advanced is that of Executive Privilege. Indeed, in discussing upcoming testimony of Will Moschella before the SJC on 3/6/07, an email between Richard Hertling and Faith Burton outlines an inclination to withhold documents based on executive “equities”:
The DOJ has released thousands of documents to congress from many individuals. We wondered whether the withheld documents are any different from the documents released, other than content.
Table 5: Comparison of withheld and Public emails in the DOJ Documents
Thus, with respect to unique senders and recipients, the only category in the withheld emails not already released in the public documents are those sent by Sarah Taylor. This email is 1 of 155 evaluated unique emails. It was sent to Kyle Sampson. (note the above chart does not analyze 6 of the withheld emails sent by others not listed.)
We next asked whether there was something unique about the combination of Senders and recipients of the withheld emails. To examine this question, we focused on Kyle Sampson and Monica Goodling, the most frequent recipients.
Table 6. List of a recipients of all withheld Emails sent from Sampson, Goodling, and Jennings, 126 of 160 unique withheld emails.
Thus, of all of the emails being withheld by Kyle Sampson and Monica Goodling, only Sarah Taylor in the White House received exclusively withheld emails. In the DOJ, all of the principal personnel received public emails in addition to any withheld emails. In other words, almost all of the recipients of withheld emails have received publicly released emails from Sampson or Goodling. With respect to Jennings’ sent emails, all of the withheld recipients received public emails from him.
In conclusion, there is little basis to suggest that the correspondence between the senders and recipients of withheld emails have a unique relationship that warrants executive privilege. The most logical conclusion is that the withheld emails contain information that the White House does not want released, probably because the content reveals their role in the firings. These withheld documents date exclusively after the firing.
Summary
Email Traffic analysis reveals that regardless of content, the principal DOJ and White House Personnel corresponding by email with respect to the USA firing were: Kyle Sampson, Monica Goodling, Harriet Miers, William Kelley, and Scott Jennings.
This is consistent with organization of the firing originating or being directed by the White House, and effected by Kyle Sampson and Monica Goodling. Because Goodling received emails from Jennings but not Miers or Kelley, it is probable Sampson was the chief “aggregator”. Indeed, most of Goodling’s emails to all White House contacts pertain to installation of Tim Griffin as USA Arkansas.
Importantly, this analysis does not include paper documents, telephone or personal conversations. It is feasible that other modes of communication could reveal new participants or change the interpretation of the existing data. Nonetheless, the email traffic patterns are highly consistent with the public testimony of DOJ leadership in HJC and SJC hearings. Specifically, data suggest that McNulty, Moschella, and Gonzales were not involved in the design. Importantly, it is hard to believe that Kyle Sampson could not remember who specifically chose the names on the firing lists. He is certainly the key DOJ player. Traffic patterns suggest that it was likely Kelley or Miers, at the behest of the President. The following chart contains a weighted graphic representation of the emails between the principal players in the USA firing.
Figure 10. Graphic representation of the number of emails sent between principal players in the USA Firing Scandal in the time period before and including the day of the firing. The weight of the lines represents the number of emails sent. Of note, in all of the released emails, with respect to the White House personnel, only Bill Kelley sent an email to any other party, and that was to Paul McNulty. In this same time frame, Sampson sent 3 emails to McNulty and Goodling sent one.
Notes:
The analysis in this document was based on the email master file “Email-Master(Complete)-7.xls”, the latest version of the database updated 5/10/07 at 1453 central time. The master file has been checked for duplicates and omissions, but there may be a small number of errors that will be corrected as needed.
The database and the analysis file PDF containing these graphs and tables can be obtained by contacting drational@yahoo.com.
Acknowledgements:
Thanks to the Daily Kos volunteers who have completed the database compiling and indexing DOJ emails and permits analysis of email traffic. They have put in countless hours and should be commended. They include:
Audrey, MsWings, Ethan's Mom, WTF, Madhaus, davidincleveland, Howard, Fanaa, Brian, Michelle, Michael, Miss Butter, Pandora, Eli, OkieByAccident, Keith, Marco, Gray, Tracie, Thom K in LA, leveymg, and Valerie.
Updated 5/11/07 with expansion of White House Traffic (figures 6 7 and 8 are new), and corrections to Table 6.