This diary by DemFromCT got me thinking. For most people, voting is really making a choice between candidates who aren't really your choice. For example, with Russ Feingold not running, my vote in the primary will be for someone who (IMHO) isn't the best choice for president. I wonder how eight years of the Shrub is affecting conservative voters' second choices for president.
That the GOP candidates each has his own flaw when it comes to conservative ideological wingnuttery is no secret. (Just as --- in my opinion --- the lefty left-handed progressive side won't truly be served until Russ Feingold runs and is elected.)
I wonder, though, if in 2008, it will REALLY hurt them because of the Shrub factor.
Even though my favorite would-be candidates aren't running, I'm pretty much OK with the rest of the field on the D side, with a few exceptions. Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Richardson --- I'd be more or less fine with any of them, and I think a lot of people would agree.
On the right, you'd figure there wiould be a similar phenomenon: even if Rudy wins the nomination, you'd figure most conservatives would hold their nose and vote for him anyway, if only to keep a black person or a woman (gasp!) from running the country.
But with so many Repugs disavowing Bush, I wonder if making that choice becomes more difficult. With an approval rating mired in the low-30s nationwide and even Republicans approaching him about withdrawing troops from Iraq, many conservatives are running away from him as quickly as possible (or, as a conservative friend of mine does, are disavowing his conservative "cred").
Now they're asked to choose among adulterers and other betrayers of conservative ideology. I would think there would be an even greater disincentive to vote for a McCain or a Giuliani; after all, their votes for Bush in the two preceding elections enabled one of the most disastrous presidencies in history (and, at the same time, besmirched the "good name" of conservatism, to the point where they have to explain why Bush is not a conservative).
Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I think that unless a truly conservative candidate emerges and wins the nomination, their enabling of what even they would concede has been a horrible presidency would give them pause when deciding to vote in 2008.