This afternoon, I participated in an automated Survey USA telephone poll -- the first call I've ever gotten from SUSA. This was your typical political poll, including:
...approval/disapproval for Bush
...approval/disapproval for my Wisconsin Governor and Senators
...political affiliation
...approval/disapproval for social issues like abortion and gay marriage
...conservative, moderate or liberal
...the need for a military draft
...and of course, hypothetical presidential match-ups pitting Hillary against the top 3 Republicans -- Guiliani, McCain and Romney. But what was atypical for this poll was a 3-party hypothetical, pitting Clinton against both Guiliani and Al Gore as an Independent.
In the Clinton vs. GOP questions, I obviously voted for Clinton. But in the 3-party match-up, I pressed "3" for Gore.
Oddly, the survey never mentioned or asked about Barack Obama or John Edwards. Yet they asked about Gore.
As far as I can tell from their Election Poll page, Survey USA has not asked this question before. Neither has Rasmussen. In fact, I can't find any hypotheticals that position Gore as an Independent.
That got me wondering -- if Gore isn't running, why are they even asking? And if Gore does run, would his chances of winning be better as a Democrat or as an Independent? Here's my armchair quarterback take...
Last week's Pew Research report said that Americans are already getting bored with the long presidential cycle; a late entry by Gore (either as a Democrat or Independent) could easily generate renewed excitement. That, and staying above the political fray for as long as possible, is the strategic advantage to waiting.
But an Independent bid could generate even more buzz. Five big reasons why:
1. It gives non-Hillary Democrats an option
2. More Americans identify as Independents today than ever before
3. It gives Gore his own personal platform, without having to participate in Democratic debates and mud-slinging
4. Some of the early voting states -- New Hampshire most notably -- love Independents. This from The Evening Bulletin:
New Hampshire's voters are classically, and, it turns out, literally, independent. Independents, in fact, now account for 44 percent of all registered voters in the state, which may turn out to be the most important statistic in national politics in 2008.
5. It puts Gore on the ticket, regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination
The glaring disadvantage, of course, is that third-party candidates don't win presidential elections. Then again, there's no reason to believe that 2008 will follow all the traditional rules.
I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on the Democrat vs. Independent question as it relates to Gore and '08. Have at it!