After the release of the new IAEA Interim Report (pdf) yesterday, I was shocked that the media didn’t pounce on it, and immediately disseminate its actionable findings in the way only they can. The silence is deafening.
Given the number of talking heads on Iran war footing in this country, I can only think of two possible reasons for the non-coverage of the anxiously awaited report. (1) "Monica-mania" on C-Span has temporarily blinded the MSM. (she was kinda cute but that voice – argh!) Or, (2) the IAEA report turned out to be less than anticipated.
Me, I’m goin’ with the latter... but that’s just me.
Iran is certainly not off the hook though. Reading the report, it’s pretty clear that in many respects; the Iranians are not exactly in a cooperative mood – especially in three-key program aspects.
• Iran has not responded to the Agency's long standing requests related to: the uranium contamination at the Physics Research Centre;
• Iran's acquisition of P-1 and P-2 centrifuge technology.
• the documentation concerning uranium metal and its casting into hemispheres.
But, as bad as it sounds, Iran’s defiance concerning the aforementioned facets of their ongoing nuclear program are not all that disturbing -- and certainly not unexpected. Although, it’s a sure bet that the MSM will no doubt hype the results as evidence of more Iranian nefariousness.
Some analysis courtesy of The Agonist:
What is at issue here today is whether recent reports of Iranian breakthroughs in enrichment are true. Before today's report, it was pretty clear the media's claims were not correct. Inspectors Cite Big Gain by Iran on Nuclear Fuel (original NYTimesSelect) had been completely debunked by experts before the IAEA report came out.
And yet the claims still managed to form the dominant media narrative, as this ABC Report reiterates:
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to confirm Iran's rapid progress in advancing its uranium enrichment program in a report due tomorrow.
The only problem is that the report confirms no such thing. What the report details and conversations with arms control experts confirm is that the Iranians have made no major breakthroughs like that http://agonist.org/.... Furthermore, his story of May 15 was, as one expert put it, "misleading and sensationalized."
The relevant portions of the IAEA Interim Report (pdf), released today, conclude:
Since the Director General's last report, Iran has fed approximately 260 kg of UF6 into the cascades at FEP. Iran has declared that it has reached enrichment levels up to 4.8% U-235 at FEP, which the Agency is in the process of verifying. On 13 May 2007, eight 164-machine cascades were operating simultaneously and were being fed with UF6; two other similar cascades had been vacuum tested and three more were under construction.
For us laymen, that paragraph sounds alarming for sure. But, perhaps it’s not quite as dire as it seems.
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis of the Belfer Center authored this piece at Arms Control Wonk.com that Iran does seem to be making steady progress toward continuous operation of their centrifuges." But this is hardly indicative of a nuclear program about to start spitting out bomb grade material next week.
And Lewis isn’t the only expert not jumping on the advancement bandwagon.
This evidence, presented in the IAEA report, says Paul Kerr of Arms Control Today "...does not support [the] rapid progress..." described by Sanger in his article and portrayed by the media as a whole. Kerr added, "..."it doesn't seem like [the Iranians] have crossed a major threshold."
The claims filtering in and out of the media that Iran is one to two years away from producing bomb grade material are, to put it mildly, wildly inaccurate, as the report notes the Iranians are only reprocessing moderate amounts of UF6 to 4.8% U-235, and bomb grade material must be at least 80%.
So, will this contrary analysis by nuclear field experts muffle the driving drumbeat? Don’t count on it, especially when the U.S. Navy keeps chuggin’ towards the Persian Gulf with two carrier groups – reportedly for military exercises only.
According to the Iranian website Press TV, President Ahmadinejad and his Persian constituents are not worried, so far, taking solace from a press statement from the Bahrain-based U.S. Fifth Fleet.
"The timing of this exercise is determined by the availability of forces, and is not connected to events in the region. This exercise is not directed against any nation."
Naïve bastards.