I am living in the West Bank at the moment, and working in Jerusalem at the Alternative Information Center doing research. As such I have the dubious distinction of watching Gaza fall apart, again, and perhaps for the final time. I wrote in my blog earlier today that it looked like Gaza was finally slipping down the precipice. I was right. I just didn't expect to be proven right in an hour. More after the jump
The most recent piece of news is that Hamas has
captured the headquarters of the Fatah-allied security forces in northern Gaza on Tuesday, seizing a key prize in the bloody battle for control of Gaza.
Ha'aretz has been reporting on the situation in a fairly rapid manner, and has been perhaps the most helpful media source of news. My favored news site, Ma'an News has been up and down all day, so Ha'aretz it has been.
Hamas has been solidifying its position throughout the Gaza strip for much of the last week. Today though
Hamas, stepping up a rapidly expanding power struggle, on Tuesday afternoon launched attacks against installations of security forces allied to Fatah, seizing a number of smaller positions and laying seige to others.
Attacks on prominent officials have become increasingly brazen as well.
On Tuesday morning, gunmen attacked the home of Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas in a refugee camp near Gaza City, for the second time in as many days.
Fatah has responded in kind in the West Bank, shutting down al-Aqsa Television in Ramallah, a Fatah stronghold and an area of relative calm.
The human tragedy aside, there are serious implications for the entire Middle East should Hamas succeed in driving Fatah effectively out of Gaza. Assuming the fighting stays isolated to Gaza, and Hamas holds its position, Israel can do nothing but react. Hamas at that point effectively controls their own chunk of land in the absence of any sovereign authority. As such they may choose to do whatever they might want, which at the least looks like continuing to launch rockets at southern Israeli cities.
The consequences of Israel reinvading Gaza could be dire, both in human terms, but also could be the nail in the coffin of the peace process that has been languishing since 1996.
It may also further split the Palestinian people, particularly if Fatah tries to wipe out the Hamas element that has gained some leverage in the West Bank. The West Bank has remained calmer as Gaza has progressively sunk into all-out war, although perhaps gang war is a better description. Should the West Bank become engulfed in Gaza's flames, the entire situation on the ground could change. Should the West Bank manage to avoid this, and Hamas remains ascendent in the Gaza, this could also radically shift the political dynamics between Israel/Palestine to one of Israel/West Bank, and so on. A complete split could feasibly take place, as the West Bank and Gaza follow different political paths. I for one would not be surprised to see Israel and the West Bank as a separate entity negotiate a separate peace.
Perhaps the worst part is we may be looking back to the days of Hamas as a time when there was a more sane partner in power. As I wrote on my blog last week even more militant Islamists are gaining power in certain parts of Gaza.
The situation is changing rapidly, and I am sorry if this all is a little confusing, but I hope this can help people understand the gravity of the situation. I don't see a whole lot of hope at the moment, as it does look right now like Hamas has pretty well secured Gaza. After that, who knows?
The most astounding part of all of this is how utterly incapable any coherent political theory is of describing what is happening. It is not a civil war in the sense that it is not civil. There is no government fighting an insurrection. At the same time it's not truly a war; it's gandland violence with enormous political consequences. It's stunning to look at just how fully what is happening in Gaza challenges many fundamental assumptions of international relations. Is Gaza turning into Somalia? Or this is becoming a precedent?