So I've been putting out this theory for several months now, and a friend finally challenged me to "put it somewhere public." And what better place than my beloved Kos-land?
Let me be clear about this theory -- I do not think Jeb Bush will "definitely" be the nominee, nor do I think he (or anyone) has a 51% chance or better. But I do think he has a far, far, far better chance than the conventional wisdom (pun intended) would assume. My sense is that most of America thinks the chances are virtually nil -- Intrade puts the odds at 1/2 of one percent. But I'd put them closer to 25% or 30%. And that's why I'm going to place a bet on Intrade this weekend (if I can figure out how the hell to do it).
And let me be equally clear about my own preference -- there is no way in hell I personally would EVER vote for Jeb Bush. Ain't gonna happen. Not gonna do it... wouldn't be prudent. But... I do think he could be a far stronger candidate than many on our team might assume. And I want us to be prepared in case he does jump into the race.
Think I'm crazy? Consider the scenario below the fold...
Here's how I'd see it playing out:
- Fred Thompson jumps into the race. Conservative Republicans shout "hooray" in unison. He's conservative! He doesn't have hair, but... he's really tall! He's all things to all people! He's played the president on teevee already -- he can play it in real life!
- A few weeks or months go by, and suddenly... well, Thompson ain't looking so good. Enough things come out about him to make the social conservatives feel at least a wee bit queasy (scan his bio sometime). And a few things come out that take the shine off his armor. I'm not predicting anything in particular, just saying that anyone who is that high in the polls without people really knowing much about him... well, something is going to disappoint someone. And possibly a whole lot of someones.
- Maybe Thompson muddles through # 2 just fine, but maybe he doesn't. But what happens if he at least falls a bit, and becomes just one of the pack, instead of the savior of the conservatives? Well...
- ... the conservatives would start looking for a new savior. And who better for them than a candidate who is: a) undeniably conservative; b) the very popular (left office post 60%) former two-term governor of the most critical swing state of all; and c) pretty charismatic in his own right (no Fred Thompson, but then again, Thompson is no Ronald Reagan).
- Jeb Bush joins the race, starts sucking away the conservative support, but unlike (perhaps) Thompson, those conservatives have many good reasons to stay with Jeb.
Think I'm crazy? Well hell, then tell me tonight before I place the damned bet! But before you do, let me anticipate some of the counter arguments:
Hlinko, are you on crack?
While I've had my share of youthful indiscretions, no, I have never smoked crack. Nor am I on anything stronger than Diet Coke tonight.
But George Bush is wildly unpopular! Why would they elect his brother?
Now, granted, the first reaction of most Americans to a Jeb candidacy would undoubtedly be a collective "WTF???" But remember, George Bush is also unpopular in Florida, and yet, Jeb was still post 60%. Clearly, the people who knew him best were able to think of him as his own person, distinct from his brother.
And here's the thing -- Jeb doesn't look his George. He doesn't sound like George. Were it not for the last name, I seriously doubt anyone would even guess they were related. We might all know it at a cerebral level, of course, but deep down -- human beings are basically well dressed monkeys. What we feel in our hearts is almost always more powerful than what we know in our brains. And after that initial reaction, I'm willing to bet the attitude will shift to.. "Well, he is George Bush's brother, but I dunno, he just seems different."
In fact, the initial association might actually help him. Think of it this way -- any Godfather fans out there? Okay, imagine if Fredo the idiot son had been made Godfather when Sonny got whacked. Imagine what an utter mess he would've made. Then imagine Michael was mentioned for the job. The initial reaction would've been "WTF???" (in Italian, of course). But Michael -- smarter and slicker than Fredo -- would've looked good in his own right. And he would have looked even better compared to the initial assumptions of what he would be, given the Fredo connection.
Americans don't like dynasties! Surely they wouldn't elect another Bush, no matter how good he was!
That certainly sounds compelling, but if you actually look through American presidential history, I don't think there's a single instance of it actually hurting a candidate (seriously, name ONE). Think of George Bush Sr -- leaving office with only 37% of the vote, one of the lowest ever for an incumbent. And yet, 8 years later, America elected his son. Or go back to John Adams -- out of office after one term... and yet his son J.Q. Adams elected later. Or for that matter think of Hillary Clinton, the front runner among Dems, in spite of the 8 years her husband just served. Or the fact that every election since 1976 has had a Dole, Bush, or Clinton on the ticket. Sure, we'll SAY we hate dynasties, the same way we'll say we hate negative advertising -- and yet, on both fronts, actions speak louder than words. Deep down, Americans think dynasties are kinda cute. And reassuring. And time and time again, they'll vote for them.
There you have it. My theory of Jeb, out there, nice and public.
And remember, I come here not to praise Jeb... but to tell you that it's too early to "Bury" him as well. Be cynical, be skeptical, but just in case -- be prepared.
UPDATE
One other key point -- baffling as we might find it, George Bush still has a 73% approval rating among Republicans. (see
Gallup poll). No, I don't get it either. But I'm not the ones voting in the GOP primary -- they are.