This is my second prediction diary (the first predicted the Bush death spiral in Feb 2006, see below). My second prediction is that climate change will be the surprise issue dominating the political debate in 2008, like the deficit was in 1992 (but there does not have to be a Ross Perot to make this happen). Rather than gently stick a toe into the water, Democrats should raise the issue early and heighten the differences between the parties on this seminal issue. The basis for this prediction is below the fold.
I work with meteorologists and others in the environmental science community. There is a huge ground-swell of local interest in climate change, and what might (and might not) be signs of change. In particular, local weathermen (and women) from across the country are taking actions to get informed on this subject, so don't be surprised to see much more discussion on this topic than you might think (and from parts of the country you would not expect to welcome a "liberal" issue). The weather report on the local news is many minutes of time on every television and radio station in the country, every day. For an issue needing advocacy, it is an almost unbelievably potent platform. And the control of this content has heretofore been in the hands of the weathercasters themselves (who - despite the stereotypes - often do have scientific training).
Implications
(1) Issue advocacy groups can contact their local media. Don't make this political, but develop the relationships now that will help when the issues get hot.
(2) Candidates interested in running on the importance of climate change issues should take advantage of this emerging opportunity. Climate change is one of a series of issues that can redefine the liberal/conservative boundaries, putting the national dialog on the side of stewardship of the environment rather than sole reliance on market-based policy.
(3) This will be an excellent opportunity to test the hypothesis that the consolidation of the radio networks had increased the corporate ability to silence free speech. Let's see how Clear Channel and others respond once this trend picks up.
And for the record, here's prediction #1:
Target Republicans, not Bush (Cheney, Libby, etc.) Hotlist
by Greg306 [Subscribe] [Edit Diary]
Sun Feb 26, 2006 at 01:40:57 PM PDT
The tide has finally turned. The Bush Administration is spiraling downward to its deserved position as one of the worst Presidencies in American history. The full process will take years, but I do not believe the situation is reversible. The politics of tomorrow will be shaped by this fall, and how accountability is assessed. Republicans will continue the process of distancing themselves in proportion to Bush's unpopularity, and there is enough time even before November 2006 for them to do so. The battle between distancing and accountability is the real battle for the politics of the next generation.