A few months ago, I observed that the insurgents in Iraq have much more room for improvement in their effectiveness than US forces, and this is becoming evident in the poor results of the current US "surge" campaign. Since the capitulation of the Democratic majority in fully funding the Iraq war, I have become convinced that the only way US forces will leave Iraq is to be forced out by unsustainable losses. We appear to be approaching prohibitive loss levels in Iraq. This diary provides some details.
Let's start by looking at
Vehicle losses
Military vehicles have always provided the combat power edge to the occupation forces in Iraq. When the insurgents learned how to destroy Humvees, US forces responded by introducing the larger and heavier Stryker and MRAP vehicles. But the insurgents have simply added more explosive to their buried and vehicular IEDs. It is much cheaper to increase the size of a bomb than to buy heavier vehicles, and in this contest the bomb always wins - because modern high explosives can destroy even the largest US combat vehicle (M1 Abrams tank).
Stryker Losses Raise Questions
Convoy attacks.
The logistical lifeblood of the occupation forces in Iraq is the road convoys. The insurgents are attacking these convoys more often and more effectively.
A top security industry official said he was told recently by American military and contracting officials that 50 to 60 percent of all truck convoys in Iraq were coming under attack. Previously, he said, only about 10 percent had been hit.
"There is a definite spike in convoy attacks," said the official, who would speak only on condition of anonymity because the information was confidential. Gordon Dreher, 48, who drove a fuel truck supplying American troops in Iraq, said he and other drivers faced almost constant attacks from insurgents.
Contractor Deaths in Iraq Soar to Record
Indirect fire attacks
The Green Zone used to be a relatively safe place. It is now getting hit by rocket and mortar round several times a week. It is so dangerous that US personnel must now wear body armor when moving between buildings.
Four contractors killed in attack on Green Zone
The increasing frequency and destructiveness of these attacks means that the Green Zone may soon be coming under a kind of seige that renders "surprise visits" by US officials infeasible.
Infrastructure attacks
Oil pipelines are difficult and expensive to protect and relatively easy and cheap to attack. The Iraq resistance has been hitting the pipelines for years, but recent attacks appear to be growing more effictive. This is probably the result of improving intelligence and planning, clearly a learning curve phenomenon.
2 Pipeline Blasts Halt Oil Exports At Top Iraq Port
Because BushCo has ordered the military not to disclose statistics on losses, the general public is not seeing the fateful numbers suggesting our impending defeat, but this arithmetic proceeds inexorably, and this brutal fact will end our ugly and ill-fated war in Iraq. BushCo can hide the numbers, but the defeat will not be hidden.