Media Matters:
Before the November 2006 midterm elections, NBC News political director Chuck Todd predicted several times that if the Democrats won "control of Congress" and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) became speaker of the House, then President Bush's "approval rating will be over 50 percent by the Fourth of July next year." In fact, as of July 4, 2007, Bush's approval ratings are far below 50 percent. Indeed, a recent analysis by the weblog RealClearPolitics.com of national polls conducted between June 11 and June 28 placed Bush's average approval rating at 30.5 percent. Will NBC News question Todd about his inaccurate prediction?
Todd appears to have first made this claim during the October 27, 2006, edition of NBC's Today. In a segment on possible ramifications of the Democrats' regaining control of Congress in the midterm elections, NBC News chief White House correspondent David Gregory reported that "some analysts warn that if Democrats overreach, it will backfire." Gregory then aired a clip of Todd predicting that the "president will have a job approval rating over 50 if Nancy Pelosi's speaker of the House by the Fourth of July."
During a November 3, 2006, news briefing on the midterm elections, Todd made a nearly identical claim: "I think if Democrats get control of Congress, President Bush's approval rating will be over 50 percent by the Fourth of July next year." Todd reasoned that Democrats would "have to legislate in a way that they know Bush will sign things," and by passing immigration reform, minimum wage, and "some health care stuff that Democrats want to get through," Bush "is going to sit there, he's going to veto something every once in a while, and it's going to remind people of the power of the presidency. I think it's going to make him -- I think it's going to make him more relevant domestically and might rescue his legacy in these last two years a little bit."
As we know, Bush's ratings are not so much in the 50% range. They're more in the under-30% range, as Pollster.com illustrates rather nicely:
So how about it, NBC? Any acts of journalism planned that might cause Chuck to explain how he's really right after all?