(Cross-posted at my blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority).
Thanks for taking a look at my second installment of "The Big Board." This massive ranking of all 34 Senate Seats up for grabs in 2008 is a reflection of my opinions based on news, polls and past electoral history.
The rankings are made from a least-likely to change party affiliation ranking, to most-likely. As always, I appreciate any criticism or comments below.
For last months results, click here.
The Big Board:
No. 34 Jack Reed (D-RI) Last Month: 34
This Democratic Senator from the nation’s bluest state. I’ve seen nothing over the past month that could bump him from the most safe seat.
No. 33: Mike Enzi, (R-WY) Last Month: 33
Still no declared challenger, I suspect that if the Wyoming Dems can field a competitive candidate, he or she will challenge recently-appointed Senator John Barasso.
No. 32: Jeff Sessions, (R-AL) Last Month: 32
Without a big name opponent declared, Sessions appears to be on easy street towards reelection.
No. 31: Saxby Chambliss, (R-GA) Last Month: 30
The Georgia Demorats are hurting, there's no denying it. As of right now, no big names have stepped up to challenge Chambliss and the way things have been trending in the peach state recently, it's hard to blame them.
No. 30: John Kerry, (D-MA) Last Month: 31
There is some (by some it would appear to be minimal) discontent with Senator Kerry in Massachusettes. Not only has he drawn an anti-war primary challenger, but according to a recent article in The Hill, 56 percent of Mass residents believe Kerry should step down and not run for reelection. All that said though, I don't consider it enough to drop Kerry any more than one spot.
No. 29: Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) Last Month: 29
Lone GOP rising star Shelly Moore Capito is in for a tough fight for her house seat, leaving Rockefeller unopposed as of right now. This race seems poised to break into the 30s.
No. 28: Dick Durbin, (D-IL) Last Month: 28
I said this last month, but I didn't get a really good answer. Dick Durbin is a great lawmaker from a solidly blue state that has a curiously low approval rating: 52 percent only according to the most recent Survey USA poll. That said, Durbin has never been in danger of losing his seat, winning by 22 points in 2002. What's the deal my Illinois bretheren?
No. 27: Lindsay Graham (R-SC) Last Month: 27
Judge Advocate Huckleberry has a clear shot towards reelection so far from the Democratic side. As a side note, try doing a google search for "Lindsay Graham" - you don't get a single story on the Senator. Guess who does show up though? Whoops, please disregard that line, I mispelled Lindsey. He spells it with an "E" not an "A."
No. 26: Thad Cochran (R-MS) Last Month: 26
Still no news on the Mike Moore front, and while I believe it is still possible to see see Cochran hang it up before Nov. 2008, he's still made no significant steps in that direction. Recent news out of Mississippi says that Cochran will make up his mind in November.
No. 25: Pat Roberts (R-KS) Last Month: 25
For crying out loud, will somebody in Kansas step up and challenge Pat Roberts? This months S-USA rating has him once again hovering just over 50 percent, yet as vulnerable as he appears to be, he still has no opponent. Democrats have made huge inroads in Kansas in recent years, but without putting up a credible challenger to Roberts in 2008 they risk stopping that momentum. Even the Lawrence Journal World is asking, "Is Pat Roberts Really Vulnerable?"
No. 24: Joe Biden (D-DE) Last Month: 24
Biden's Presidential aspirations haven't picked up too much steam so far. However, Bill Richardson has offered him a job in his future administration. If Biden runs for reelection he wins. If he drops out, his son Beau could keep the seat in Democratic hands.
No. 23: Carl Levin (D-MI) Last Month: 23
No indication yet that the most erratic-voting Senator in the country will not run for reelection. Seriously though, Levin voted against the Iraq war, for supplemental bills, for redeployment initially and then against a bill without timetables for withdrawal. Levin should have no problem achieving reelection if he wants it.
No. 22: Mark Pryor (D-AR) Last Month: 22
Pryor is a legit social conservative in a state that has shown signs that it is regaining it's Blue Streak. He's survived tough elections before, and even with a challenge from Mike Huckabee, a recent poll has shown Pryor winning.
No. 21: Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) Last Month: 19
While most New Jersey residents believe that Lautenberg is too old to run for reelection (according to a recent Quinnipiac Poll), the Garden Staters are also not ready to dump him yet. This race moves down in vulnerability though, due mostly in part to the two men who were recently ranked in front of him.
No. 20: Jim Inhofe (R-OK) Last Month: 21
Everyone's favorite anti-science crusader may have his work cut out for him in 2008 if the stars align. It is no secret that Oklahoman are sick of Inhofe. With a Nov. 2006 approval rating of 46 percent, Inhofe is in deep trouble if State Senator Andrew Rice jumps into this one. Additionally, according to the draft web site, Andrew is very close to filing the papers to get in. This race could shoot up the rankings next month if Rice announces.
No. 19: John Barasso (R-WY) Last Month: 20
Barasso has spent a little over a month in the Senate, and already he has drawn the ire of Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal for being luke warm on issues that late Senator Craig Thomas backed. This has fueled speculation that the Governor may in fact take on Barasso in 2008. However, the Governor has repeatedly declared that he is a non-candidate.
No. 18: Max Baucus (D-MT) Last Month: 17
The shittiest Senator in DC can breath a little easier these days as Montana Congressman-at-large Danny Rehberg recently announced he would not challenge Baucus for the Senate.
No. 17: Chuck Hagel (R-NE) Last Month: 18
Chuck Hagel is showing little-to-no interest in running for reelection in 2008. He's already drawn a primary challenger in Jon Bruning, and with reports indicating that he has less than $500,000 in cash on hand, Hagel looks less than committed to this race. The uncertainty surrounding Hagel's future causes this race to become more vulnerable.
No. 16: Larry Craig (R-ID) Last Month: 15
No offense to Larry LaRocco, who has been running a terrific campaign thus far, but this race goes further up the list due to the company it is keeping. There is still no word on Larry Grant's future, but like Hagel his fundraising has been underwhelming (see above linked article). I'd love the idea of seeing a Democratic Senator from Idaho, but it's going to be a real uphill battle.
No. 15: Lamar! Alexander (R-TN) Last Month: 16
Mike McWherter, son of former Governor Ned McWherter, has confirmed that he is interested in exploring a challenge to Alexander. The elder McWherter was an insanely popular governor and with Lamar!'s approval rating hover around 50 percent, this could turn into a real dogfight if Mike accepts the challenge. Unfortunately, McWherter has said that if Harold Ford Jr. decides to give the Senate another shot in 2008, he would step down. Let's all hope it doesn't come to another Ford candidacy.
No. 14 Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) Last Month: 12
Perhaps I was too critical of Harkin last month. His July approval rating has jumped up to a respectable 55 percent. Although reelection has never come easy for Harkin, 2008 could be the year where Iowa's embrace the state's most liberal senator in years (if not ever) and give him a resounding victory. While he does not have a declared opponent, if Conservative Rep. Steve King jumps into this race Harkin could have another tough one on his hand.
No. 13: "Pajama" Pete Domenici (R-NM) Last Month: 14
The latest Survey USA numbers show that Domenici may be in the process of rebounding from his role in US Attorneygate. At 55 percent, Domenici is not a lock by any means, but considering he was at 51 percent last month this bump has to be seen as good news by his campaign. Combine that news with the fact that the New Mexico Dems still have yet to find a first tier opponent, and this race is at risk of falling out of the top 15.
No. 12: Tim Johnson (D-SD) Last Month: 12
Still nothing concrete out of the Johnson camp as to whether or not the Senator will seek reelection. However, former colleague and Majority Leader Tom Daschle doesn't seem to have any doubts that he will. Johnson barely survived reelection in 2002, edging current US Senator John Thune by under 1,000 votes. Hopefully the Senators health will allow him to run again, but even if it does it won't be an easy race.
No. 11: Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Last Month: 11
McConnell continues to freefall through the approval ratings, as he now sits at a pathetic 48 percent. Combine that with the fact that Democratic candidate for Governor Steve Beshear has been absolutely oblitterating incumbent crook Governor Ernie Fletcher in the polls, and the perfect storm is brewing to destroy the Kentucky GOP. However, as vulnerable as McConnell is, without a declared candidate (though Attorney General Greg Stumbo is interested) I cannot let this race break the top 10.
No. 10 Liddy Dole (R-NC) Last Month: 7
Ok, good news bad news time people. The bad news is that US Rep. Brad Miller will not challenge Liddy Dole in November for her seat. The good news is that Dole's vulnerability is just as high against other potential candidates. Recent polls show state Rep. Grier Martin polling extremely well against Dole. In a head-to-head match up Martin trails Dole by a 43-37 percent margin. Those are tremendous numbers for a state Rep., let's hope that Martin decides to make a run at this race.
No. 9 Mary Landrieu (D-LA) Last Month: 6
Once again Landrieu has the distinction of being the only Democrat in the Top 10. However, the good news is that she's a little more safe based on recent events. The David Vitter scandal has tarnished the GOP so badly that even the 2007 gubernatorial race (considered by most early to be an easy GOP pickup) has even had life breathed back into it. So far things are looking pretty good for Landrieu's reelection hopes, but this is still Louisiana and the effects of Hurricane Katrina have yet to be seen in a statewide election.
No. 8: John Cornyn (R-Texas) Last Month: 10
Rick Noriega is in folks. Former Afghanistan veteran, Texas State Rep. and now candidate for US Senate, Noriega is everything we could ask for and more from a Texas Democrat. Though he will face a tough primary with San Antonio trial lawyer, Mikal Watts , if he wins he should really be able to give John Cornyn all he can handle. Since arriving in the Senate Cornyn has decided he'd rather carry Bush's briefcase to work daily than to represent his constituency, and is has shown. His June approval rating is at 42 percent, making him certainly ripe for the picking.
No. 7: John Warner (R-VA) Last Month: No. 8
John Warner's approval rating continues to hold steady at 53 percent, and though his fundraising improved from a laughable $500 in the first quarter to an aenemic $71,000 in the second, rumors of his retirement have been floating around as well. It doesn't help that the right wing Washington Times is spreading rumors of his demise as they attempt to groom US Rep. Tom Davis as his successor. If John Warner is indeed finished, than this seat will turn into a free-for-all as former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is likely to jump in on our side. September is the key here, as John Warner has repeatedly stated he will not make his plans known until then.
No. 6: Ted "Tubes" Stevens (R-AK) Last Month: 9
Look out Tubes! The Fuzz is on the way! As I write this reports are coming in all around the country that federal agents have raided Ted Stevens' Alaska Home in an investigation of his ties to oil company VECO. The longest-serving Republican Senator may be on his political last throes here and if former candidate for Lt. Governor and Democratic Minority Leader in the state house Ethan Berkowitz jumps into this race, we could see the great white north turn blue in 2008.
No. 5 Gordon Smith (R-OR), Last Month: 5
Oregon Dems finally got their big name for this race. Though declared candidate Steve Novick has been doing a more than admirable job so far in his race to defeat Gordon Smith, he may soon find himself having to take a pass at this race. Oregon Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley recently declared his candidacy and with statewide name recognition already in hand, should have a head start on the race to become the Democratic nominee. Meanwhile, Gordon Smith's approval rating continues to linger under 50 percent as the debacle in Iraq continues to rage on.
No. 4 Susan Collins (R-ME) Last Month: 3
This race takes a step back this month as things have been relatively quiet. Collins and Lieberman continue their BFF tour, while Tom Allen has continued to build up his war chest. With both candidates having over $1 million on hand, Mainers better get ready for an airwave war like they have never seen before.
No. 3 Norm Coleman (R-MN) Last Month: 4
Norm, in the words of Douglas Adams: "Don't Panic." Coleman is falling fast in approval polls, with this month putting him at 43 percent. Making matters worst, Survey USA also released a match up poll today with Al Franken that shows Coleman leading our favorite Air America host-turned candidate only 49-42 percent with nine percent undecided. Coleman runs even closer against Attorney Mike Ciresi, winning only 48-42 percent. The DFL has got to be thrilled with these numbers. No matter who comes out of next years primary the candidate, one thing is certain: Norm Coleman has his work cut out for him.
No. 2 John Sununu (R-NH) Last Month: 2
It's really tempting to put this race ahead of the open seat in Colorado, but unfortunately there are still too many "if's." Here's what we know for certain: Sununu is polling terribly against all of our declared candidates. He's under 50 percent against them all and a both Marchand and Swette are within striking distance. Here's another fact: three different polls show that, if she enters, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen will give Sununu the beating of his life. For more info please check out my poll summary here.
No. 1 Open Seat (R-CO) Last Month: 1
It's all quiet on the western front this month. US Rep. and Democratic candidate Mark UDall is slowly and methodically raising all the money he needs to, to be competitive. Meanwhile, Udall's opponent Bob Schaffer has been focusing on painting him as a "Boulder Liberal." With the 2008 Democratic convention scheduled for Denver and the state beginning to trend blue, there is a good chance that all the negative campaigning in the world will not help Schaffer. This seat remains No. 1 with a bullet.