[crossposted at Keystone Politics]
According to political gossip and news aggregator PoliticsPA, the Bucks County GOP could be going off the board in its search for a challenger to Congressman Patrick Murphy:
Thomas Manion, a former Marine Corps Colonel from Doylestown whose son was recently KIA in Iraq, is being recruited to run.
The site also mentions Scott Petri and Gene DiGirolamo as also considering challenges to Murphy. But it's Manion's potential candidacy that is most interesting to me.
The Republicans badly need a candidate with a "hook" in order to effectively challenge Murphy, who has garnered both wide publicity and the continued admiration of his base with his principled stand on critical Iraq War legislation, while performing extraordinarily well in the fundraising department. Thomas Manion would represent a bold choice. He is far from the "career politician" mold, with an extensive military background that not only counters Murphy's, but also yields a clear contrast on the issues and in terms of personality.
And just in case there were any doubts as to how Manion would establish a contrast with Murphy, PA WaterCooler notes:
The Manion family has expressed their disappointment in Patrick Murphy, who they had exploited [sic] his military service in order to defeat Fitzpatrick.
And from a May 1 Bucks County Courier-Times article on the death of Travis Manion (h/t INDC Journal):
Manion's mother, Jannette, said her son believed in the mission and wished more people backed President Bush's plan to send more troops to bolster the forces. She recalled a phone call she received from him the night Bush first talked of the troop surge.
"He was so sure what he was doing over there was right," his mother said. "He called the night Bush made his speech about the troop surge and told us, 'That's exactly what we need.' His biggest concern was that the politicians over here were giving life to the insurgents by putting the military and president down."
The rhetoric in a Murphy-Manion matchup could get very hot, and very ugly.
Up until this point, the guessing game regarding Patrick Murphy's opponent might as well have been titled "Waiting For Mike Fitzpatrick." A rematch run by Fitzpatrick, the former incumbent upset by Murphy last November, would be the easiest way for the Republicans to be competitive in PA-08. However, while Fitzpatrick said on July 17 that he is still mulling another run, with a final decision coming by year's end, off the record chatter (and one not-so-off-the-record piece of evidence) suggest that Fitzpatrick is already out.
The puzzling question: If Fitzpatrick knows he's not running, why wait until December to make it official? Going the traditional route with a second-tier candidate - i.e., area legislators like Scott Petri and Gene DiGirolamo - would have been enough of an uphill climb for the Republicans. If they had to wait until December to really jump in, beating Murphy would be next to impossible.
But the GOP's courtship of Thomas Manion provides a context within which a delayed "No" from Fitzpatrick would make sense. My guess: Fitzpatrick's "public" deliberation freezes the more politically expereienced legislators from aggressively mobilizing support. Meanwhile, quietly the party leadership works to convince Manion, a political novice with an eye-catching resume and a life story that goes right to the heart of the Iraq War debate, to run for Congress; gets him up to speed for such a run; and lines up the party organization in a way that clears the road for him before the primary. (Granted, such a "quiet" plan may now be rendered inoperative by the leak of Manion's potential candidacy.) If Fitzpatrick officially declared himself out now, the jockeying for the nomination would commence immediately, when Manion might not be either ready or inclined for such a fight.
We'll see how this plays out. Murphy is still in a good position, and there are obvious risks with an inexperienced challenger like Manion. But I may have been rash in dismissing this race absent the participation of Fitzpatrick.