This is to be the first of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. The goal is to put up one a week, which will finish the series before the holidays. These are largely districts that I mentioned in my overview diary here: http://www.dailykos.com/... In addition, I decided to add 19 "50 State Strategy" districts. These are districts which would not otherwise make my list but where the Democratic nominee in 2006 a) improved by at least 5 percentage points on 2004 performance and b) held the incumbent under 60%. Finally, recent developments have added a couple of seats. I will look at the seats regionally, and look at both GOP-held and Dem-held seats together. Of the 20 groupings I came up with, there are two which contain only GOP seats to target. The rest are a mix. Each profiles between 5 and 9 races.
Despite the Democrats’ 30-seat gain in 2006, there are more GOP seats profiled than Democratic ones. This is partially because I am not hugely interested in helping the GOP find longshot Dems to target and have employed somewhat narrower criteria for the Dem seats. It is mainly because the same macro factors which led to the 2006 wipeout are still present, and are magnified. The national mood is still against the Republicans and still favors the Democrats (despite grumbling from the Dem base that the new Congress has not gone far enough or been bold enough in opposing Bush and the Congressional Republicans). The GOP campaign committees are short on cash; the Republican cash advantage is a thing of the past. Now, only the RNC maintains a cash edge over the DNC, and that money is going to bridge the fundraising gap between the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates. Democrats have done better at recruiting top candidates thus far. Finally, and most damaging, most of the key retirements and likely retirements are on the GOP side.
The lineup is as follows:
Part I: New England
Part II: New York
Part III: New Jersey, Pennsylvania Part I
Part IV: Pennsylvania Part II
Part V: Delaware, Maryland, Virginia
Part VI: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia
Part VII: Florida Part I
Part VIII: Florida Part II
Part IX: West Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana
Part X: Texas
Part XI: Ohio
Part XII: Indiana
Part XIII: Michigan, Wisconsin
Part XIV: Illinois
Part XV: Minnesota, Iowa
Part XVI: Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas
Part XVII: Wyoming, Utah, Colorado
Part XVIII: Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona
Part XIX: California
Part XX: Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, Alaska
This diary will deal with New England, and since Election Day 2006 nearly wiped out the House GOPers in the region, it deals mostly with defensive races. The GOP was left with one incumbent in New England, Chris Shays of Connecticut, and his seat is again in the Dems’ sights. Rounding out the races here are the four seats the Dems picked up in 2006 and will attempt to hold for the first time in 2008 plus the seat being vacated by Maine Senate candidate Tom Allen (D).
Maine 01 (D open)
Maine’s 1st district is the southwestern corner of the state and includes both Portland, the state’s largest city, and the state’s capital, Augusta. This district is the more urban and more liberal of Maine’s two districts. Al Gore won the two-party vote here 54-46 in 2000 and New Englander John Kerry won the district 56-44. The representative here is Democrat Tom Allen, who has held the seat with ease since his election in 1996. That year, Allen (then mayor of Portland) ousted freshman Republican Rep. Jim Longley, who was swept in in the 1994 GOP "Revolution." Allen is leaving to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R). With the exception of Longley’s single term, Republicans have not held the seat since 1987. Nonetheless, it is in play as an open seat. The Dems have a crowded field, but the leading contenders are former Common Cause head, state senator, and 2002 Senate nominee Chellie Pingree, former state senator and 2000 Senate nominee Mark Lawrence, and former state senate leader Mike Brennan. Pingree and Lawrence have each already raised over $100K. The Republican field is much more in flux. Former state representative and ’06 nominee Darlene Curley is in, as is former state senator and ’04 nominee Charlie Summers. The biggest name mulling is Peter Cianchette, a former state senator and the 2002 nominee for governor. The Dems should hold this seat, but it may be competitive.
New Hampshire 01 (Carol Shea-Porter (D))
Across the border from Maine 01 is New Hampshire 01 which encompasses the southeast third of New Hampshire. It includes Manchester and Portsmouth as well as some less populous territory extending north along the Maine border. This is traditionally the more conservative of New Hampshire’s districts; indeed Carol Shea-Porter’s win last year was arguably the upset of the night (Dave Loebsack (IA 02), Jason Altmire (PA 04), and Nancy Boyda (KS 02) are other notable upset winners). Both Gore and Kerry lost the district by 4 points. Shea-Porter beat three term Rep. Jeb Bradley 52-48, running on a progressive, get-out-of-Iraq platform. She ran a low-budget campaign but nonetheless defeated first the Democratic leader in the state House of Representatives and then Bradley. The last Democrat to represent the district had been Norman D’Amours, who left to run for the Senate in 1984. Bradley is back for a rematch in 2008 and may have a clear field, although he may get a primary challenge from John Stephen, a former NH-01 candidate who has just resigned as state Commissioner of Health & Welfare. Shea-Porter has raised $262K and has $256K on hand; Bradley has not filed a FEC report.
New Hampshire 02 (Paul Hodes (D))
While Carol Shea-Porter was winning New Hampshire’s first district, Paul Hodes was winning the 2d, which comprises the northern and western two thirds of the state. Hodes’ victory over Rep. Charles Bass was less surprising, but no less impressive. The dual victories mean that the Dems hold both New Hampshire seats for the first time since 1913-15, when Democrats were swept in on Woodrow Wilson’s coattails and swept out two years later. The second district is the more Democratic of the two districts; Gore won it by two points and Kerry won by 4—the difference accounting for the fact that Gore lost and Kerry won the state. Nonetheless, Dems have had trouble winning the seat; since 1915, only one Dem held the seat before Hodes: the unfortunately named Dick Swett. Swett held the seat for two terms in the early 1990s before losing to Bass in 1994. Bass had been a Democratic target off and on since then, and Hodes faced him in 2004. At that time, Hodes was an unknown, underfunded newcomer and lost by 20 points. Nonetheless, Hodes left a positive impression and never stopped running. Bass failed to take Hodes seriously for much of 2006—to his cost. On election night, Hodes defeated the incumbent 54-46, a 28-point swing from 2004. This year, Bass is not seeking a rematch. There are no announced GOPers as of yet, but potentials include state Sens. Bob Clegg, Bruce Keough, and Chuck Morse.
Connecticut 02 (Joe Courtney (D))
Connecticut’s 2d District is the eastern third of the state, missing both the Hartford and New Haven metro areas. It was for the last three cycles the most Democratic district held by a Republican in the nation; it gave Gore 56% and Kerry 55% of the two party vote. Nonetheless, it had been held by Republican Rob Simmons since he caught veteran Dem Sam Gejdenson asleep at the switch in 2000. Courtney, then a state representative, was Simmons’ 2002 opponent. In a favorable GOP year, Simmons held on 52-48. In 2006, Courtney came back for another try and the race was a top battleground throughout the 2006 cycle. In the end, Courtney eked out a 94-vote win. Simmons has announced that he will not seek a rematch. With Simmons out, Courtney should have the advantage in holding this naturally Democratic seat. Attorney and former naval officer Sean Sullivan is the sole announced GOPer thus far. Through the second quarter, Courtney has raised $634K and has $559K on hand; Sullivan has raised a mere $31K and has $14K on hand.
Connecticut 04 (Chris Shays (R))
Shays was the last man standing after the 2006 blue wave otherwise swept New England clean of House GOPers. Of course, locals will respond that Connecticut’s 4th District is not really a New England District in any event. It is the southern half of the western third of Connecticut and contains wealthy Fairfield County (Greenwich, New Canaan) as well as urban, working class Bridgeport. The district is much more a New York suburban district akin to New York’s Westchester and Rockland counties. The Almanac of American Politics once observed that, unlike the rest of Connecticut, there are more Yankees fans than Red Sox fans in the 4th. The district gave Gore a 55-45 victory in the two-party vote and Kerry a 53-47 win. Shays has represented the district since 1988. He has cultivated a moderate image which had served him well until recently; Shays had coasted in the district (which had not elected a Democrat since 1966) until Nancy Farrell held him to a 52-48 win in 2004. Farrell’s rematch was one of the top Dem targets throughout the 2006 cycle. Unfortunately, Farrell did no better in 2006 than she did in 2004, becoming part of an unexplained storyline of top female Democratic candidates coming up short in 2006 (others include Lois Murphy (PA 06), Linda Stender (NJ 07), Christine Jennings (FL 13), Victoria Wulsin (OH 02), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH 15), Tammy Duckworth (IL 06), Patty Wetterling (MN 06), Angie Paccione (CO 04), Jill Derby (NV 02), Tessa Hafen (NV 03), Patricia Madrid (NM 01), Francine Busby (CA 50), and Darcy Burner (WA 08)). This time around, Farrell is out and the Democrats have Greenwich Dem chair Jim Himes in the race and several notables including Ted Kennedy Jr. apparently considering a run. Himes’ strong early fundraising may well clear the field, however. He has raised $353K to date and still has $337K on hand. The incumbent Shaya, fresh off his expensive 2006 battle, has raised $475K and has $368K on hand.
Connecticut 05 (Chris Murphy (D))
The fourth New England Democratic pickup in 2006 came in Connecticut’s 5th District—the most Republican district in Connecticut. Despite this, it was the most convincing victory: Murphy, a young, telegenic rising star in the state Democratic Party knocked off longtime GOP veteran Nancy Johnson by the lopsided margin of 56-44. Making this achievement all the more impressive is the fact that Johnson defeated fellow incumbent Jim Maloney by the same margin four years earlier, after reapportionment cost the state a House seat, and Johnson took 61% against a state legislator in 2004—as John Kerry was narrowly winning the district. Gore won the two-party vote here 55-45. The district itself is the northern part of the western third of the state. It includes Danbury, Waterbury, and New Britain, as one travels to Hartford on I-84. In 2008, GOP state senator Daniel Cappiello is in the race, and several other state legislators as well as the mayors of Danbury and New Britain, are reportedly considering the race. Cappiello has already raised $198K and has $183K on hand.