This is supposed to be an lte. Critisim is welcome and requested.
I count the dead. I confess the numbers are somewhat of a fascination. For August 8th, the official body count is 193, annualized to about 320 murders. The rate of increase over last year is trending up. On August 12th, we've reached 196 dead and an increase of almost 17% over last year.
I do the numbers every day as if the ritual itself will change the dead into something tolerable. This year we'll see about 45 more people killed this year than last year, plus or minus a couple of bodies. If nothing changes, we will be counted the most violent place in the nation.
A short history of recent murder rates in Baltimore for visitors and latecomers, all in dead bodies per hundred thousands of population. In 1990, the rate was about 41. In 1993, the winning year for the highest annual body count, the rate was about 48. In 2000, the rate was about 40. In 2005, we had a rate of about 42. This year we are tracking towards a rate of 51. We have 17 years of experience in making no progress on reducing our murder rate.
In the Dr. Seuss world of public relations, ordinary citizens shouldn’t be worried about the murder rate because it won’t affect them. The "perception of crime" is what needs to be managed, it is the "perception of crime" that causes the damage. Those who see perception even have nice polling statistics showing that people are way too concerned about crime. Over and over the police spokespeople say that the murders overwhelming involve people with a history of arrests. This is supposed to change my personal "perception of crime" and allow me to "feel" safer.
But, oh, oh, the places I go. There are maps showing the placement of the dead, the Baltimore Sun has a nice one (registration may be required). Murder by asphyxiation, blunt force, stabbing, shooting, and unknown causes are shown with jaunty little colored flags marking the place where the body was found – the broad details available by clicking the flag.
I count the flags. 5 dead within about a mile of my home, 16 killed on routes I use almost every day and dozens more line the places I have been in the last two months. Each flag represents a life lost with slop-over damage to the families of the victim and the families of the murderers, their friends and neighborhoods. Each flag also represents a set of costs to the city – direct expenses like paying for investigations and the indirect costs of social unrest, depressed areas and missed opportunities.
We never see breakouts for our murder rate by race. I'm convinced it's because it is horrific. Using 2005 and 2006 information about the composition of the city (65% black) and the race of the victims (92% black), a guess at this year's murder rate would be 72 black victims per hundred thousand of black population and a rate of 12 victims of other races per hundred thousand of other race population. Other socioeconomic characteristics of murder are not offered except by innuendo. As the deaths mount on the map, flag after flag points to most of the bodies piled in the poorer areas. On this day, there are nearly zero flags in areas that I know have high median incomes. I’m shocked.
Currently, we have the "new" focus on gun crime and getting the guns off the street in combination with yet another police commissioner. It was tried in the past without notable success (in 1995, 1998, 2000 to count a few years). The police recover some guns and proudly photograph the piles of weapons, however it doesn’t reduce gun violence. To be fair, the current attempt at this tactic hasn’t been in force long enough to have an impact on the numbers. GunStat may provide some leads that previous attempts overlooked, but I’m not planning on it.
The US Department of Justice imported "Exile" from Richmond, VA. "Baltimore Exile" is a coordinated program to target repeat offenders and gun offenses. The program became effective about February of 2006. In 18 months of "special attention", shootings increased by over 30% compared to last year. Ok, well, thanks for the thought, Alberto.
The citizens play their part in the murder-go-round by expecting a simple, pain-free solution executed by someone else and requiring no effort or sacrifice on the part of the citizenry. We need to have some painful conversations to identify issues that contribute to the culture of a city that shoots first and shoots often. We need to commit to talking realistically about what’s necessary to make real progress on these issues and how to fund new initiatives and raise funding for programs that work.
Unless all of us are willing to demand that the murders stop and back that demand up with our actions, the number of the dead won’t change.