The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is holding a series of meetings following recent military drills.
The SCO is a joint security arrangement between China, Russia, and four central Asian nations. The SCO, which has the potential to quickly become the next "Warsaw Pact," is hosting Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
If you think the idea of China, Russia, and Iran explicitly cooperating in security matters is something that we should take note of, you're damn right.
From the People’s Daily description of Ahmadinejad’s talks with Hu Jintao today, there is reason for concern:
"Iran will continue to work closely with the IAEA. At the same time, Iran will maintain contact with other parties such as China on the issue," Ahmadinejad said.
The United States and other Western countries accuse Iran of developing atomic weapons under the cover of civilian nuclear use, but Teheran insists that it only wants to generate electricity using nuclear power.
Iran’s highest-level participation in a China/Russia military summit leaves little room for doubt where the chips will fall if Bush decides to go into Iran.
By splitting the conflict into a west/east divide, and including Russia in the east, the US must tread very carefully.
Really, I had to laugh when I heard about the latest proclamations from GQ that Condi Rice is Washington’s most powerful person. Condi Rice has no ability to sway the Bush administration, and takes on Georgie’s ideas as her own. If we're hoping, as the GQ editors seem to be, that Condi is our only hope, we are, in no small sense of the word, fucked.
There is no coincidence that China and Russia are sending the strongest signals to date about US aggression towards Iran. Let’s hope someone, somewhere, is getting the picture.
Update: per Greyhawk's suggestion, I would also recommend that folks check out the Asia Times piece "Assassin's Mace". A keenly relevant passage:
If there was any effort at the exercise of soft power at all [by the United States], it was minimal. In fact, it is not America which is practicing soft power in diplomacy but a rising power in the East - China. China has been busy in the past decade or so exercising soft power in almost all countries in Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Middle East, winning most of the countries in these regions to its side. Through the use of soft power, China has created a de facto global united front under its silent, low-key leadership....
The US-led war in Iraq was a tactical victory for the US initially, but has resulted in strategic defeat overall. The Iraq war caused the US to lose its principal allies in Europe and be isolated, despised and hated in many parts of the world. Without too many friends and allies, the US is likened to an "emperor with no clothes".
So in a major conflict between America and China, isolated America cannot possibly win against a global united front led by China and Russia.
I don't take the threat of direct conflict between China and the US very strongly at this point, but I think it's unmistakably true that both China and Russia would do everything in their power short of declaring war to aid Iran in the case of a US attack.