Look at this document (pdf) put out by the Missile Defense Agency explaining why the Europeans need to put our missile defense systems in their countries (h/t Steve Aftergood). Be warned, it is very glossy and pretty. Under the subhead "The Threat is Real and Growing" they write:
The number of states that currently possess medium-, intermediate-, and/or intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (missiles that can reach our friends and allies, and in some cases the United States itself) has increased from five to nine. Clearly, the international security environment is more complex and less predictable since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. (Bold in original)
Clearly. Because nothing shows proof of increased complexity than four additional countries acquiring medium range missiles. Mr. False, meet Ms. Dichotomy. I think you will have a happy life together.
But really, the only two countries the report is at all worried about are . . . drum roll, please . . . Iran and North Korea. Look, guys. If the two countries that most concern you are Iran and North Korea rather than, say, the Soviet Union then we are not facing a more complex security environment. Mistakes and false analysis are not going to lead to the destruction of the planet. And do Iran and North Korea act randomly or do they act like small and medium sized, isolated and threatened states? If they act like the latter than there behavior is probably just as predictable as the Soviet Union's behavior during the Cold War--although you weren't very good at predicting that either, so go figure.
My favorite part of the report:
1. Why the sudden concern?
Reality and timing of Iranian threat
• Defenses take years to deploy. Work on missile defense in Europe must begin now in order to meet the growing threat from Iran
• Iran has demonstrated the capability to develop, and intent to use, ballistic missiles of increasingly longer range (they currently have short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) and medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) technology)
• Public announcement of space-launch vehicle test success (U.S. cannot confirm)
• In 1998, intelligence experts indicated North Korea was years away from testing multi-stage rockets; the next month, they tested this capability. We cannot afford to be surprised by waking up one morning and discovering that Iran has an ICBM capability
They are trying to convince the Europeans that deploying this highly controversial system on their territory is because of Iran's growing capability and that it will take years to deploy. But what evidence is there that even if Iran were to gain these capabilities that they would use it to threaten Europe. The number of insane political events that would have to happen in order for that to come about seem quite implausible. No wonder they think the world is less predictable. So they are trying to convince us to build a multi-billion dollar system to defend against an extremely low probability event. What is guaranteed, however, to be a high probability outcome if they go forward with this is that it will piss off the Russians--which I suspect is the main point anyways.
Cross posted on Hawks and Doves