Dear Ford Motor Company,
I do not want all US automobile companies to go bankrupt, and I have given up on General Motors and Chrysler-if-it-is-bought-out-by-US-owners. So that leaves you.
Why don't I want all US automobile companies to go bankrupt? Because, like it or not, the US economy is presently addicted to automobiles. That means that collapse of all US domiciled car makers will leave us dependent on foreign corporations for innovation that is vital to our medium term, and possibly long term, economic health.
So, a couple of ideas about how you can save your company, below the fold.
{NB. rotate US auto companies that I have given up on for Open Letters to GM and Chrysler}
So, Ford has adopted Sustainability as a Corporate Goal:
"Welcome to our 2005/6 Sustainability Report. At Ford Motor Company, we have made sustainability a long-term strategic business priority. Sustainability issues touch every aspect of the economies in which we operate. This report explains our strategic thinking and details progress and performance against our Business Principles."
In this part of exurban / outer suburban Northeast Ohio, heavily indoctrinated into buying the absurdly large American SUV, hybrid Ford Escapes now seem to be one of the most popular hybrid vehicles. This is a 3,782 pound curb weight monstrosity that passes for a "smallish" SUV, which relies on hybrid technology to haul the mass around for a claimed 34mpg ... with 30mpg observed by the Auto Channel.
Now, in calling this a monstrosity, I don't want to suggest that it is especially monstrous. Compared to the egregious evil of the 6,400 pound, 15mpg (combined) Hummer, or even the grotesquely outsized 5,800 pound 13-16 mpg Ford Expedition, the Ford Escape qualifies as a fairly mundane, banal evil.
But, really, is that the best that can be done? Yes, 2.2 gallons per hundred passenger miles is better than the 4.4 gallons that the Expedition burns through per hundred passenger miles ... but its still 10 times the fuel consumption of an electric commuter train, and when gasoline hits $10/gallon, 34mpg is not going to be nearly good enough.
Ford's Smallest Vehicle
Now, there is an obvious path from here. Ford pushes this generation of parallel Hybrid technology across into selected broad vehicle markets ... a sedan, a crossover, and a pickup. And at the same time, develop a fully electric drive train in preparation for a fully serial hybrid with high efficiency fixed speed flex-fuel gasoline and/or diesel engine, with ongoing improvements in battery technology leading to a pluggable hybrid as an evolutionary step up.
And as that is obvious, I am not going to dwell on any of that. None of those grabs the American psyche by the short hairs and says, "my, goodness, Ford has something there". And none of them are going to be absolutely flying off the lot when gasoline hits $10 a gallon.
The first revolutionary vehicle, already diaried by a siegel, is the Venture series from Venture One:
VentureOne is not producing these yet ... and that is just the point. They are developing the vehicle, they have obtained rights to the technology they need to bring out all electric and hybrid versions of the gasoline powered Carver ... but to put it into production, they will need more than the technology and the design. They have a business model based on establishing local production facilities in their target markets ... but still, as you well know, production facilities will need to be established, component suppliers will need to be lined up, and perhaps most importantly dealership and repair networks will need to be established.
And of course, as part of its serious decline in this decade, Ford Motor Company has substantial mothballed production sites, and an established dealership network that is going to be absolutely hammered if gas hits $5/gallon, let alone $10/gallon.
This is a perfect joint venture opportunity. Ford's nameplate brings this vehicle instant credibility in the establishment motoring press, while Ford's dealership network brings the vehicle into view straight across middle America. And the nagging worry concern about any niche vehicle - "where will I get it serviced" ... becomes a windfall profit center for Ford's dealership networks during the period while independent service centers are tooling up to repair the vehicle.
And over it all ... even for people that only see it running down the Interstate ... its just so fracking cool ... like it escaped from twenty years in the future, as proof positive of Ford's survival in 2030 A.D.
This is, in other words, not just a dinosaur getting a modest amount more efficient. This is a nimble little mammal, able to take on the impact of $10/gallon gasoline and laugh in its face.
Keeping the Dream Alive
On an entirely different tack, when gasoline hits $10/gallon, what happens to the great American tradition of packing up the camper and heading off for a great escape?
This is something that I am conscious of because my mother is retired, and her husband retires in about a year, and they have been looking for some kind of camper to make it less expensive to go to autoharp / dulcimer type music festivals. And while they do not require a massive living room and kitchen, they do require a comfortable bed and workable bathroom facilities.
And that means that when they settle on something, maybe an A-liner, maybe a hardshell pop-up, there is a minimum size (and therefore maximum MPG) of vehicle they'll need to haul it. And then, because, they do not have unlimited money, they'll be using that vehicle for everyday use ... going to the grocery store, driving to church on Sunday.
Now, the extra towing capacity is only going to be needed when towing. But ... well, here is the idea. If the vehicle happened to be a full serial pluggable hybrid, then the power generator would not normally be running all the time. That is, after all, the point.
So, suppose that there was an extra battery and additional electric motors in the trailer? A power and network hook-up could let the trailer know when to push ... and, of course, when to brake. It, of course, would not be driving at the speed of the towing car ... simply driving enough so that a smaller car could tow it.
I do want to point out something important: this is not something that Japan will invent for us. We have to invent it for ourselves. And the first car maker to bring it to market will establish the interface standard for the camping trailer makers ... indeed, it may well make a few standard chassis for the camper trailer makers, which the camper trailer makers can finish as they wish ... and that will provide them with a head start on the competition in selling their hybrid cars into the niche of people who want a camper trailer, but also want a lighter weight, more fuel-efficient vehicle to drive around when they are not towing.
Conclusion
So, how about it, Ford? Are you ready to jump into the future? Or are you going to content yourself with being dragged into the future, and risk the total collapse of your business when $5/gallon and then $10/gallon hits us before we are ready to cope.
Virtually Yours,
Dr. BruceMcF (Economic)
Northeast Ohio