This is to be the second of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. This is supposed to be a weekly feature but I missed last week. I added my vulnerability score for each district in this round and will go back and edit the previous diaries to include this. A higher number means more vulnerable. Generally, if a district is on the list, the score is above 90, and above 100 means likely top tier. The next two paragraphs are the intro which will appear at the top of each, so feel free to skip.
The goal is to put up one a week, which will finish the series before the holidays. These are largely districts that I mentioned in my overview diary here: http://www.dailykos.com/... In addition, I decided to add 19 "50 State Strategy" districts. These are districts which would not otherwise make my list but where the Democratic nominee in 2006 a) improved by at least 5 percentage points on 2004 performance and b) held the incumbent under 60%. Finally, recent developments have added a couple of seats. I will look at the seats regionally, and look at both GOP-held and Dem-held seats together. Of the 20 groupings I came up with, there are two which contain only GOP seats to target. The rest are a mix. Each profiles between 5 and 9 races.
Despite the Democrats’ 30-seat gain in 2006, there are more GOP seats profiled than Democratic ones. This is partially because I am not hugely interested in helping the GOP find longshot Dems to target and have employed somewhat narrower criteria for the Dem seats. It is mainly because the same macro factors which led to the 2006 wipeout are still present, and are magnified. The national mood is still against the Republicans and still favors the Democrats (despite grumbling from the Dem base that the new Congress has not gone far enough or been bold enough in opposing Bush and the Congressional Republicans). The GOP campaign committees are short on cash; the Republican cash advantage is a thing of the past. Now, only the RNC maintains a cash edge over the DNC, and that money is going to bridge the fundraising gap between the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates. Democrats have done better at recruiting top candidates thus far. Finally, and most damaging, most of the key retirements and likely retirements are on the GOP side.
The lineup is as follows:
Part I: New England
Part II: New York
Part III: New Jersey, Pennsylvania Part I
Part IV: Pennsylvania Part II
Part V: Delaware, Maryland, Virginia
Part VI: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia
Part VII: Florida Part I
Part VIII: Florida Part II
Part IX: West Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana
Part X: Texas
Part XI: Ohio
Part XII: Indiana
Part XIII: Michigan, Wisconsin
Part XIV: Illinois
Part XV: Minnesota, Iowa
Part XVI: Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas
Part XVII: Wyoming, Utah, Colorado
Part XVIII: Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona
Part XIX: California
Part XX: Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, Alaska
This diary will deal with the state of New Jersey as well as the first three (numerically) of the ten—count ‘em 10—profiled seats in Pennsylvania. New Jersey is one of (I believe) only three states which allows a supposedly independent commission to draw its Congressional districts (Iowa and Washington are the others). Jersey’s process, however, is far more open than the others to lobbying efforts by incumbents of both parties. As a result, it fairly regularly has a classic "incumbent protection" map regardless of which party controls the legislature and the governor’s mansion. The current map is no different. The state has 7 Democrats and 6 Republicans, and no seat has flipped party control since Democrat Rush Holt defeated Republican Mike Pappas in the Princeton-based district in 1998. That seat was then made markedly more Democratic in the 2002 redistricting. As the state becomes bluer, the Dem incumbents get safer and safer and the GOP incumbents—despite having districts drawn for them—get more vulnerable. As things currently stand, none of the 7 Dem seats is remotely winnable by the GOP. In contrast, 5 of the 6 GOP seats are marginal on paper. Nonetheless, only three qualify for this target list; Frank LoBiondo (R-02) and Chris Smith (R-04) have performed extremely well—even in 2006—despite holding a net Democratic and a barely net Republican district respectively. Further, neither has an announced opponent yet although Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew is supposedly considering a challenge to LoBiondo. If he takes the plunge, that race will merit another look. The remaining three GOPers in marginal districts are on the target list and are profiled below.
As for Pennsylvania, I will save the main discussion for the next diary. Briefly, it is the classic example of a state whose Republican governor and legislature created a finely balanced gerrymander in 2002 based on the politics of the day. As Democratic performance improved, suddenly a large number of seats became vulnerable. The Dems picked up four seats in the state in 2006, the most of any state, and are poised to raise challenges in several others this year. This diary features the GOP 3d and 6th seats as well as the 4th district, which was an upset win for the Dems in 2006.
New Jersey 03 (Jim Saxton (R)) Vulnerability Score: 94.5
New Jersey’s Third District runs across the southern third of the state from east to west. In fact, the state’s districts are generally a series of (mostly) horizontal stripes: the 2d in the far south (with the heavily Dem 1st taking out a chunk of the western part), then the 3d, then the 4th, then the 12th (with the 6th completing the stripe in the east), then the 7th. After that, the upside-down V of the 5th, the filled in portion below which is the 11th, and the tight knot of small, densely populated districts centering on Newark and the New York City metro area (8th, 9th, 10th, and 13th). It includes parts of Ocean and Burlington counties and a little of northern Camden county. It is a generally suburban district (as is much of Jersey) and one which has become more hospitable terrain for Democrats since the 1990s. Nonetheless, while Gore won here by 12 points in 2000, Bush beat Kerry by 2 in the two-party vote. Democratic numbers were down across the state in 2004 relative to 2000, either due to a 9/11 Bush bounce or to the scandal surrounding former Dem Gov. Jim McGreevey, and the third district was no exception. The incumbent is Jim Saxton, who was first elected back in 1984. Saxton is among a handful of GOP incumbents being targeted with ads by the DCCC in a transparent effort to provoke a retirement. If Saxton does retire, this seat will rival Ohio’s 15th District for #1 pickup opportunity nationally. If he does not, the Democratic strength in the district is such that he can be given a tough challenge. The Dems took a high profile shot at Saxton in 2000, when Cherry Hill Mayor Susan Bass Levin ran against him. Saxton won that race more easily than expected, and topped 60% against weaker challengers in 2002 and 2004. In 2006, however, attorney and Navy veteran Rich Sexton ran a low-budget grassroots campaign and held Saxton to a 58-41 margin, piquing interest. Sexton is mulling a rematch, but the nature of the race will certainly be determined by whether the incumbent seeks a 13th term.
New Jersey 05 (Scott Garrett (R)) VS: 91
To quote wikipedia, "New Jersey's Fifth Congressional District is predominantly rural, with some suburban areas closer to New York City. The district is an L-shaped district comprising the rural northern and western parts of New Jersey. A portion of the district is in suburban northern Bergen County. All of the areas in the district are generally favorable for Republicans; although Bergen County has trended Democratic in recent elections." That pretty much sums up the 5th, which runs along the borders with New York and Pennsylvania. It is actually the second most Republican district in the state, after the neighboring 11th. Bush beat Gore 54-46 and Kerry 57-43 in the two party vote. It was held for years by moderate GOPer Marge Roukema, who retired in 2002 after a couple of fierce primary challenges by wingnut Scott Garrett. Garrett won the GOP nomination in 2002 and despite an effort by the Dems to snag the seat from a candidate "too conservative" for it, Garrett won the open seat race 61-39. Democratic performance has improved each cycle since then, however, and Garrett beat former gubernatorial aide Paul Arensohn by the much closer margin of 56-44 in 2006. Aronsohn is running again in 2008, and he may be joined in the primary by Paramus Mayor Jim Tedesco, Ogdensburg Mayor Jim Sekelsky, and/or banker and 2004 nominee Anne Wolfe. To date, Aronsohn has raised only $2K and has $15K on hand.
New Jersey 07 (Mike Ferguson (R)) VS: 105.8
New Jersey’s 7th District is another Jersey east to west district across the state. This one is just north of the state’s midpoint. The 7th District includes parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, and Union counties, moving west to east. It has been held by a series of Republicans. The most recent turnover came when moderate GOP Rep. Bob Franks left to run for Senate in 2000. That year, it was considered a top Dem pickup opportunity. The party had picked off the neighboring 12th District in the previous cycle, it had a candidate who had taken 43% against Franks in 1998, and the GOPers nominated the conservative Ferguson, who was not seen as a good fit. Nonetheless, on election night, Ferguson won 52-48. At the same time, 12 District Rep. Rush Holt (D) was squeaking by former Rep. Dick Zimmer (R) in his first reelection. It is therefore unsurprising that Ferguson and Holt (and their respective party organizations) prevailed on the redistricting panel to swap territory to make both safer. This turned out not to be such a good deal for the Democrats: the 12th has become heavily Democratic, and while not a total lock, it is as strong for the party as the most GOP district in the state is strong for them. Holt has topped 60% there ever since. Ferguson, meanwhile, was left a district that leans ever so slightly Republican. Gore won it 51-49, but Kerry lost 53-47. Ferguson took 59% and 58% in his 2002 and ’04 races before running into state Assemblywoman Linda Stender last year. Stender represents much of the more populous eastern part of the district and ran a strong campaign. When the votes were counted, Stender came up just short, 49-48. She is running again in 2008 and should have a clear field.
Pennsylvania 03 (Phil English (R)) VS: 96.8
Pennsylvania’s 3d District is the northwest corner of the state, bordering both Ohio and New York. It includes most or all of Erie, Crawford, Mercer, and Butler counties, and parts of Warren and Armstron counties. Erie is the biggest city in the district. This is one of many Pennsylvania districts that was carefully crafted by the GOP legislature to lean slightly Republican. Both Gore and Kerry lost 53-47 here. The 3d District Congressman is Phil English, one of the remaining class of 1994 Republicans. English had a bruiser of a first reelection race in 1996, beating Ron DiNicola 51-49. Since then, he has not faced a serious challenge. Nonetheless, college professor Steve Porter took 42% of the vote in 2006, with 54% going to English and the rest to a right wing third party candidate. This year, there has been real interest in the seat on the Democratic side. So far, there are three announced Democratic candidates: Erie County councilman Kyle Foust, attorney Tom Myers, and community outreach worker Mike Waltner. Complicating matters, however, is the fact that Porter may run on the Green Party line. So far, Myers is the only Dem to file an FEC report. He has raised $54K with $53K on hand; English has raised $381K and has $254K on hand.
Pennsylvania 04 (Jason Altmire (D)) VS: 108.2
Pennsylvania 04 starts with Pittsburgh’s northern suburbs and extends north along the Ohio border, picking up Beaver and Lawrence counties and a small portion of Mercer county as well. Despite a slight Democratic registration advantage, the district leans Republican, slightly more so than the neighboring 3d District. The 4th gave Bush a 53-47 victory over Al Gore in 2000, and expanded that edge to 55-45 in 2004. The district was represented by socially conservative Democrat Ron Klink for four terms until he unsuccessfully challenged former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Bestiality) in 2000. That year, conservative GOP state Sen. Melissa Hart—who was derided as "Santorum in a skirt" (insert joke here)—won the seat. She coasted in her first two reelection efforts and was seen as fairly safe in 2006 even the Democratic tsunami developed. Her opponent, Jason was Jason Altmire, a former health care executive who had not previously held elective office, campaigned heavily on opposition to the Iraq war. On Election night, Altmire won 52-48 in one of the biggest upsets nationally. Hart is seeking a rematch in 2008, but she will not have a free ride in the GOP primary. She will be opposed by former Allegheny County councilman Ron Francis. This race will ostensibly be one of the Republicans’ top targets in 2008.
Pennsylvania 06 (Jim Gerlach (R)) VS: 110.8
Pennsylvania’s 6th District is close to the 3d and 4th only numerically; it is entirely comprised of Philadelphia suburbs on the other side of the state. It includes parts of Montgomery, Chester, and Berks Counties. It is fairly evenly split, with a slight Democratic edge, and is trending blue. In 2000, the district split fairly evenly between Bush and Gore. In 2004, Kerry won it 52-48. Gerlach was a Republican state senator who played a large role in drawing the current district map in 2001-02. He drew this district for himself and then ran to fill it in 2002. Despite a hefty financial advantage and an aura of inevitability, Democrat Dan Wofford held him to a 51-49 win that year. In 2004, attorney Lois Murphy picked up the gauntlet and ran a contentious race to the same 51-49 result. Murphy quickly announced again for 2006 and got a clear field. As the national GOP’s fortunes declined during the 2006 cycle, it seemed more and more inevitable that Murphy would be able to shift the few votes needed to ensure a victory. Indeed, at one point, Larry Sabato rated the seat as Lean Democratic. But Gerlach battled hard all the way, Murphy made some mistakes, and Gerlach was able to hang on with a third consecutive 51-49 victory. Gerlach was the lone success story for a Pennsylvania Republican party that lost an incumbent Senator in a rout, saw the Democratic governor win in another rout, and lost four House incumbents. I’m not sure what odds Vegas would have given on the proposition that the Democrats would win PA-04 but not PA-06, or that the party would net 4 seats in the state and PA-06 would not be one of them, but I imagine that they would have been long. In 2008, however, Gerlach will be running as a member of minority (with diminished clout to bring pork to the district) and should be just as vulnerable as he was in 2006. There are no announced Democrats yet, but eyes are on Melissa Fitzgerald, an actress who appeared on the West Wing and who is the daughter of Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justice Thomas Fitzgerald.