"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors ... and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.
Bush administration official
By acting decisively, by bombing Iran, Bush and Cheney will present us with a new reality. Let's look at a possible Bush administration point of view:
Goals:
- Disable nuclear program
- Regime change
- Secure and control oil supply.
Method:
- Attack by air
A) Decapitate government
B) Annihilate military
C) Disable nuclear program
- Land attack
A) Re-deploy surge troops to Basra, and into Isfahan oil fields
b) Marine amphibious assault on Isfahan oil fields
International consequences:
Iran has few allies. Protests would be loud, but mean little. Repressed Shia populations in Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait present minimal risk. Sunni regimes would approve disabling the threat of Iranian power in the region. The Al-Maliki regime would fall, to be replaced either by an Allawi coup, or by a new version of CPA. No loss there.
Domestic consequences:
Protests would be loud, but mean little. A draft would become necessary, but unpopular; given the new reality, the need for a draft would become obvious, and grudgingly backed by the public.
Economic consequences:
An oil price spike may drive the country into recession. This is a distinct possibility anyway, given the subprime debacle, and blame could be deflected from the administration and towards the Iranians. Ultimately, securing and controlling Gulf oil supplies would be worth the price.
Political consequences:
Democratic presidential nominees would be seen as weak because of their feckless opposition to the War in Iraq, which can be painted as overall weakness in the War on Terrorism. Republican nominees would be seen as strong on defense. A Republican President and a majority in Congress become real possibilities in 2008.
Result:
In one decisive act, completely reconfigure the national perception of the War on Terror. The War on Terror is WWIII, and it will be WWIII indeed. Create a new reality. Whose side will you be on?
Of course, attacking Iran is an insanely bad idea. Is it too late to stop Bush and Cheney already? Or are Cheney and Rice merely playing good cop/bad cop?