Congressional Democrats and wavering Republicans who threaten to refuse to support another surge, and another, and another, will be accused of bringing on a bloodbath in Iraq. This is clearly the point to which the PNAC wishes to drive us in our thinking -- that 'those people' must be militarily bludgeoned into coexistence.
In a previous diary I noted promising prospects for peace in a future unoccupied Iraq given that talks had opened between various Sunni Arab factions within Iraq. Now, once again courtesy of the Guardian, I'd like to diary another hopeful sign, a small peace conference between Sunnis and Shiites just concluded in Finland.
The larger point is not that an Iraq without U.S. troops will be paradise, but that it's descent into further madness is only a dead certainty to those who have given us so many other dead certainties -- and dead soldiers and dead children. Enough.
Follow below the fold.
Perhaps the most curious aspect of this conference is the roster of participants that included politicians from Northern Ireland, unionist Jeffrey Donaldson and Sinn Fein's Martin McGuiness, and South Africa, in the persons of African National Congress activist Mac Maharaj and National Party reformer Roelf Meyer. All of these being people who know something about the pain of deep, longstanding conflicts.
Indeed the resulting agreement was largely based on those experiences, and the success of peace-making efforts in those two contexts. Convened in secret by representatives of the University of Massachusets, and largely organised by former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari, 16 Iraqi delegates attended and agreed to a 12 point road map for peace.
They return to Iraq with these proposals. While the agreement does not bind anyone at home in Iraq to anything, whether that be the government or the militias, it can only be seen as hopeful. Among those in Finland were representatives of Moqtada al-Sadr; Adnan al-Dulaimi, the leader of the largest of the Sunni Arab political groups; and Humam Hammoudi, the Shia chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Iraqi Parliament.
In other words, these are not inconsequential people within the Iraqi political landscape.
On the other hand the Iraqi Government, per se, was not directly involved, and has demonstrated its inability (or perhaps unwillingness) to bring any of the factions together. One thing is becoming clear to me as I read of meetings conducted outside the Green Zone, that it's quite possible that the al-Maliki's government is as irrelevant in the grassroots peace processes now unfolding as is G. W. Bush.
Here then are the points of agreement that they take home. Point 5 is the point we need to bring home to congress, which is why I've highlighted it. Our candidates and representatives would be well advised to take the high road, here, and call for an end of the occupation, and allow Iraqis to move ahead with their future, whatever it may be.
Point 10 should be familiar to any of us who watched the end of apartheid unfold, and held our breath waiting for the bloodbath of revenge killings to begin. That bloodbath never happened. It failed to materialise because human beings of intelligence, compassion, and political creativity found ways to forestall it.
That could yet prove to be the case in Iraq, too, if the power to act finds its way into the hands of those of decency, common sense, and courage.
No, there's not guarantee of that; no, it's not a certainty, dead or otherwise, but neither is a bloodbath a foregone conclusion, either. This is politics, the art of the possible, the art of hope.
Peace.
The 12-point plan
1 Resolve political issues through non-violence and democracy.
2 Prohibit use of arms while in talks.
3 Form independent commission to disarm groups in verifiable manner.
4 Accept results of negotiations.
5 End international interference.
6 Commit to protect human rights.
7 Assure independence and effectiveness of the law and courts, especially constitutional court.
8 Full participation of all parties in political process and governance.
9 Take all steps to end violence, killings, forced displacement and damage to infrastructure.
10 Establish an independent body to explore how to deal with the past in a way which will unite the nation.
11 Support efforts to make political process successful and to protect Iraq's unity and sovereignty.
12 Participating groups commit to principles as complete set of rules.
UPDATE: As Metal Prophet notes in the comments, without the occupation it will be easier for Iraqi factions to come together without looking as if they are capitulating to, or in connivance with, the occupiers. I suspect we could find parallels in Europe in the 1940's.
Also, it may not be entirely coincidental that al-Sadr's ceasefire appears to coincide with this conference.