Of course it’s a bit early, but the 2008 Senate elections are starting to form up. At this point, things look promising. Lots can happen between now and November of 2008, but the GOP looks like a terminal patient right now.
Potential Democratic Targets:
1.Colorado With the retirement of Senator Allard, Mark Udall has a clear path to the Senate. He currently has $2.5 million in the bank and has no primary opposition to date. Bob Schaffer, State Board of Education Member has raised $682,000 but may have a tough primary battle against wingnut Josh Penry. Considering the way the race is lining up, Democrats have to be happy with the prospects here.
2.Minnesota Norm Coleman has lackluster approval ratings and a poor record in the Senate. The Democratic primary is dominated by Al Franken, but other candidates could surface. Coleman has $4 million in the bank to Franken’s $2 million. Democrats can take his one, but not without a fight.
3.Maine Susan Collins has the same kind of high numbers that Lincoln Chaffee enjoyed two years ago. But, like Chaffee, she is viewed as a moderate Republican who has talked a pretty good line, but votes with the Bush Administration on nearly everything. This is just not going to work in New England any more. Thomas Allen is the Democratic candidate and has $1.7 million in the bank to Collins’ $2.3 million. This will be a major battleground.
4.Texas John Cornyn seems like a shoe-in for re-election, but his approval ratings are at 45%. Attorney Mikal Watts has $5 million in the bank to Cornyn’s $5.3 million. Considering the recent history in Texas, I’m not seeing a Democratic victory here right now, but if things get any worse for the GOP, we are certainly in a position to take down Cornyn.
5.Idaho We don’t know the outcome of the Larry Craig situation, but we know that he will not be the Senator in January of 2009. LaRocco is an attractive candidate, but Idaho is about as red a state as there is. Unless the GOP comes in with another wide stance candidate, I’m not seeing it.
6.North Carolina Senator Dole is weak. She has only a 52% approval rating and only $1.7 million in the bank. There are some interesting Democrats in the crowded primary and the winner is going to be in one huge battle in the general.
7.New Mexico Pete Domenici was riding high. He could be a Senator for life if he wanted to or if he avoided an embarrassing scandal like the firing of a US Attorney. Although the Democrats need to settle their primary, Domenici only has $1 million in the bank and could be slow moving prey.
8.South Carolina Senator Graham is almost certainly not a Democratic target. However, he has a significant problem with his base over his role in finding a compromise on judicial nominees. There is currently no Democratic candidate against him, but there are certainly a host of Republican candidates. With $4 million in the bank, he will win the primary, but with some bruises. We should get in position to take advantage.
9.Nebraska Chuck Hagel will soon announce his retirement. Bob Kerrey will run. New Democratic seat. End of discussion.
10.Oklahoma James Inhofe has several problems going into the next election. He has very low approval ratings, he only has $1.4 million in the bank and he is possibly the biggest idiot in the US Senate today. Considering all of that, I am a little surprised that a four star candidate has not showed up yet. Ken Corn and Andrew Rice, both State Senators, may get the ball in the end zone, but Gov. Brad Henry’s got a free ride—what about him?
11.Kentucky Mitch McConnell has a ton of money and no clear opponent. But his ratings are low and he is such a high visibility villain of the GOP. I hope we are in position to take him out if things get worse for the GOP.
12.Oregon Senator Smith has known for a while that he’s in trouble. His ratings are at 46% but he has $3.5 million in the bank and there is no clear opponent yet. Eight potential Democrats are campaigning because they know Smith’s record is impossible to defend in Oregon.
13.Alaska Senator Stevens, like Domenici, could have been a Senator for life. But with the scandals and only $862,000 in the bank, all bets are off. We don’t have a clear Democrat against him yet. But if the right candidate shows up, this is going to be a huge race.
14.New Hampshire Senator Sununu is going down. Although he has $2 million in the bank, his ratings are at 47% and he has a great candidate (Gail Shaheen) coming in. He would be smart to reserve some movers for December of ’08. I know it’s early, but so many will be busy then.
15.Virginia John Warner out. Mark Warner in. Smooth as silk.
Potential GOP Targets
1.South Dakota Senator Johnson is coming back, he’s got $1.7 million in the bank and enjoys extremely high approval ratings. Anyone who thinks the GOP isn’t planning something is crazy.
2.Louisiana Mary Landrieu has a 54% approval rating, $2.8 million in the bank but some potential trouble in the form of John Kennedy. Because of the enormous depopulation of NO, Louisiana is a different state than it was before Katrina. We don’t know what it will mean, but the GOP sees potential here.
3.New Jersey Senator Lautenberg has one of the lowest approval ratings in the Senate. Although he has $3 million in the bank, he could face a tough challenge. There are only no-names running right now and the GOP has a weak bench. But the GOP has something to talk about here.
4.Iowa Tom Harkin always has a target on his back. This time he has $2.6 million in the bank and a 57% approval rating. The GOP will go after him with Steve King, but I don’t think it’s too scary.
Senatorial Committees
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has $6,466,598 on hand. By this time next year, they should have $10-12 million.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has $20,558,735 on hand. The donor base seems fired up and there is certainly reason to imagine a $35-40 million fund by this time next year.
Conclusions
There is absolutely no reason for celebration right now. There is certainly potential. We have the opportunities, the money and the candidates to win big in ’08. But we haven't won anything yet. Democrats have a scenario for victory in 15 races currently held by Republicans. Republicans have a scenario for victory in 4 races currently held by Democrats.
The Republicans will have a fraction of the money that Democrats have, so probably all of it will go to defend the Republicans that are defendable. I doubt that too many Democratic Senators will face serious heat.
If the Republicans have $12 million in the bank and 15 seats to defend, they will probably just let Colorado, Nebraska and Virginia go. They will need the resources to defend in Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico, Oregon, Alaska and New Hampshire. Then if Kentucky, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Idaho, North Carolina and Texas become competitive, the wheels will start to come off.
If the Democrats have $35 million and know that the Republicans have no resources to attack any Democratic incumbents and little to save Colorado, Nebraska and Virginia, then the remaining 12 Senate seats get pretty interesting.
So, lets get to the real question: is it realistic to imagine 10 new Democratic Senators in ’08? I don’t think it is extravagant optimism. The candidates are lining up. They money is coming in. The opportunities are opening. We could make filibuster a thing of the past.