This diary is by no means an endorsement of any one candidate, or even an endorsement of a generic Green nominee over a generic Dem candidate. While my heart lies with building the Green Party nationally, and am very active working for local candidates in the teal state of Brooklyn, I am personally taking a wait-and-see attitude with the Democratic race. I'm just putting this info out there for those who take an interest in third parties, and I guess also as a warning for dem primary voters to be careful what you ask for.
For those of you not familiar with me or my posts (it has been awhile)...you know that while my heart lies with building the Green Party at a local, state and national level, I'm a rare pragmatist in the party, and know that playing a spoiler role on the national scene has adverse effects on local races, which is one of the reasons that at the 2004 Green Party Convention I was one of the only David Cobb delegates in the New York Delegation, and was a key vote in keeping Ralph Nader off the Green Party ballot line in dozens of states as a result.
There are several things that make it very difficult to get a handle on the Green Party race. First is the delegate count. Because Green Party support and registration is very uneven across the country, with a mix of states with ballot lines and lots of local elected Greens like California, Wisconsin, Maine, Pennsylvania and Massachisetts, and others like New York that have lots of registered Greens (#2 after California) but no ballot line. There are of course only primaries in the states that have ballot lines, so the delegates get selected in different ways from state to state. California is the 800# gorilla, with 5 times as many registered Greens than in any other state, as well as a quarter of the current officeholders.
In 2004 delegates were alloted to each state based on a formula that included registered greens (or vote totals for statewide candidates in states where there is no ability to register), and elected greens. I'm honestly not sure what the formula will be in 2008 - I'll do some research and get back with an update. There was some controversy about the makeup of the 2004 delegation: mostly Nader supporters crying foul because their candidate didn't get the Green Party endoresement in 2004 - even though he didn't come to the convention nor seek the nomination, instead tried to bend the rules by having people vote for no candidate, then try to get the endorsement, which would have served no one.
In 2004, Nader's delegate support came in large party by having the majority of delegates in the three largest delegations from the corners of the country: Florida, New York and California, which together accounted for more than 1/3rd of the delegates in 2004. While I don't have much info on what's been happening in the Florida Green Party, The New York delegation is likely to be about the same size, with a few key electoral losses (Jason West in New Platz), but more than double the registrants. California may get 1/4 of the national delegates this year, so look to the California primary (to be held on the same day as the dem primary, but NOT a winner take all primary - we like our democracy in the Green party), for an indication of which way things will go at the Green Party Convention in July, 2008 in Chicago.
Democrats are pretty unpopular amongst Greens these days. It goes without saying that the longer the war in Iraq continues, and while congress keeps writing Bush checks, the less support Dem candidates with see in 2008, in congressional races or for president. Whether the Greens run a national but non-competitive 'hold your nose and vote for the lesser of two evils' race like in 2004 or a no-holds-barred 'a plague on both your houses' race like in 2000 will be determined by how many troops are in Iraq next summer, and which Dem gets the nomination.
Outside of Kucinich, none of the potential nominees have many fans among Greens, and none of the dem candidates are putting the global warming crisis front and center where it needs to be, although I have seen glimpses of good ideas from Edwards and Richardson. Part of the reason we are in this mess is that Clinton 42 wasted 8 years in office doing nothing about climate change, as it went from a big problem in 1992 to a crisis in 2000. Another Clinton will not play well with the Greens, and the little substance I've seen from Obama about increasing the size of the bloated military budget doesn't inspire confidence. Edwards is talking a good game, but is it just talk? I think Edwards would be doing much better if people could trust that he's substantially different on policy than Hillarama, but he's not made the case yet.
Notable Declared Candidates
Elaine Brown - Former Chairperson of the Black Panther Party and prison activist who ran for Mayor of Brunswick, Georgia, and might have won, if she had not been thrown off the ballot because her residency was falsely challenged.
Kent Mesplay - Ran for Pres in 2004, coming in 7th. Lost to Todd Creitien for Senate (CA) in 2006
Gail Parker - Remember Rail for Gail? She ran for Senate in Virginia to try to get light rail to Northern VA, before throwing some support to Jim Webb at the last minute.
Rumored or undeclared candidates
Ralph Nader - He doesn't sound like a candidate at this point, but if Hillary wins, the temptation might be too great. That's not stopping Jerry Kann, who is a declared candidate, supposedly as a placeholder fop Nader (ala Peter Camejo on 2004.
Medea Benjamin Former Senate Candidate (CA - 2000), Global Exchange and Code Pink co-founder and a leader of the anti-war movement. She's taken some slack with hardcore greens (Nader supporters) for her ABB stance in 2004, but I respect her a great deal - her actions follow her words. My guess is she's going to see which way the winds blow with the Dem nomination.
Cynthia McKinney - Former Congressperson from Georgia. Apparently she is only interested in running as a Green if we can shed our image as a white party, which is of course why she is so attractive to so many Greens. She was courted in 2004, but decided to get her congressional district back when Denise Majette ran for Senate. She has been actively reaching out to Greens across the country, holding several joint fundriaisers with local Green Party candidates in an effort to pay off her campaign debt and support local Greens. However she may have just decided to give Greens the red light.
Pat Lamarche - Radio talk show host who has run for Governor of Maine twice (2002/7% & 2006/10%), and was Cobb's running mate in 2004.
Winona LaDuke - Native American activist, founder of the White Earth Recovery Land Project, the Indiginous Women's Network, and Honor the Earth. She was Nader's running mate in 2000. She endorsed Kucinich in the primary in 2004 and Kerry in the general.
Matt Gonzalez- The man who would be mayor of San Francisco despite being outspent 10:1, if Newsome hadn't sewn up the Republican vote.
Cindy Sheehan - She's tilting her lance at the Pelosi windmill right now, but if she jumped in the race, I think she'd get the nomination, Nader or no.