Like a latter day King Canute holding back the tides*, W not only declared success in Iraq, but he also stated that the occupation will continue after his departure. Ironically enough, however, the all-knowing all-seeing markets that are so beloved by all Bush supporters recently spoke otherwise. All indications are that the markets will be proven to be correct here.
As Krugman notes in today's NYT, Ray Hunt, a well-connected Bushie, signed a production-sharing contract w/ the provincial govt of Kurdistan last week. That contract was the last nail in the coffin for the passage of the oil law by the central govt. As others have noted here, the proposed oil law was a terrible deal for the people of Iraq, but it's a moot point now. The central govt will never pass any oil law of any kind.
*I understand that, unlike W, King Canute didn't think he could hold back the tides.
For over 25 years now, our country has been propagandized into accepting the supremacy of markets as a basic article of faith. Markets are widely understood to be more knowledgeable, more efficient, and more productive than regulatory bodies can ever dream of being. In health care, energy policy, and even education, we are told that govt needs to get the hell out of the way and let the markets work their magic.
Applying the prevailing ideology set forth in the preceding paragraph to Iraq mandates the immediate initiation of a w/drawal of American troops (not to mention the troops of the 36 countries allegedly helping our troops). The stated purpose of 4 1/2 years of occupation has been to create a climate in which a stable central govt can effectively run the country. One of the basic essentials of establishing a central govt is the establishment of a mechanism for the sharing of oil revenues. Market forces have now decreed that such a sharing will never occur. The omniscient market forces have decreed, accordingly, that Iraq will never have a stable central govt that can run the country.
There are a few who acknowledge this fundamental fact. I saw Biden on TV twice last night, and, on both occasions, he loudly insisted that Iraq will never be able to have a meaningful central govt. Like Gertrude Stein's famous description of Oakland, there is no there there. Even more significantly, there never will be a there there regardless of how many Americans stay and regardless of how long they stay there.
While I'm not accustomed to seeing Biden visibly ahead of the curve, he is there on this issue. I was very impressed by Edwards's ad last night, and there was nothing in it w/ which I would disagree. I don't recall him, however, mentioning the fact that events have decreed that the occupation's stated goal can never be achieved. I was moderately impressed by Obama's speech the other day. I don't recall it, however, baldly acknowledging this basic truth, either.
The central govt of Iraq is Humpty Dumpty, and all of W's Humvees and all of his men cannot put it back together again. 3 or 4 Americans are getting killed every day for a goal that is clearly no longer achievable, assuming that it ever was. The markets have acknowledged that fundamental truth, yet most of Congress and almost all of the punditocracy refuses to admit that fact.
While I've never worshipped at the altar of the Mighty Market, on this occasion, the markets offer the most accurate reflections of existing reality. It is extraordinarily ironic that a country that largely does worship there remains so ignorant of the fact that the markets have spoken on this literal life and death issue. It will be interesting to see how long a political class that customarily worships there will largely remain ignorant of the market's edicts.