Sometime before the end of the 21st century, although most likely not in my lifetime, we will reach a point where more than half of the world will openly and confidently reject religion as fictitious opinion. We will reach the point where most people will come to the conclusion that all bibles and all religions are fiction/opinion, and that god may or may not exist. Thoughts such as Jesus or Allah is the son of God, or that the Koran or Bible is the word of god will become the thoughts of a shrinking minority by the time the 22nd Century rolls around.
This interesting article in the Washington Post discusses this possible trend.
The two people who will be most responsible for the continuing decline and forthcoming rapid decline in religion will be George W Bush and Osama Bin Laden. Fairly or unfairly, George W Bush will taint the religion of Christianity for centuries to come and Osama Bin Laden will have the same effect on Islam. Merely saying that George W Bush was a Christian will be logically persuasive enough to some people living in 2050 not to be a Christian.
September 11, 2001 may have awoken millions of people to the evil that some religious people represent.
Many analysts trace the rise of what some are calling the "nonreligious movement" to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. The sight of religious fanatics killing 3,000 people caused many to begin questioning -- and rejecting -- all religion.
However, religion has killed for centuries and most harm done in this world has been done in the name of religion. Sept 11 may have crystallized this reality.
According to the polling report 36% of Americans feel it's not important whether a political candidate has strong religious beliefs while another 36% only feel that it's somewhat important.
According to Gallup, in 1980 40% of Americans thought the bible was the actual word of god. Today that number has declined to 28%.
According to Gallup, in 2001 22% of Americans wanted organized religion to have less influence in American life. In 2007, that number has climbed to 32% while only 27% want more.
Information from a 2003 Harris poll suggests taht
With the current population of the United States at about 300 million, this means that there are approximately 63 million American atheists and agnostics.
And if you go abroad to places like the Netherlands, France, Germany, Canada, and even England, the non religious are a clear majority.
I think these numbers understate the non religious
Candidly we don't know how many people are non religious although I suspect that the number of people is dramatically higher than any poll out there. More than half of Americans will not be attending a church, synagogue, or mosque this week.
However, I've long suspected that large numbers of people who attend church or synagogue do so out of perceived social necessity and that large numbers of people sitting at services are quietly saying to themselves that this is all a bunch of bullshit. (I know I did when I used to go to services.) I estimate their numbers around 30%. Of the remaining 70%, not all of them are conservative.
Technology and the Internet
Technology and the Internet provides millions of people an opportunity to come out of the closet without worrying about a group of local Christian or Muslim thugs inflicting violence on that person or his or her property.
Part of the reason why religion has lasted in America has been the fear of millions of people to speak out against religion because they were unsure how many people would have their back. In some small towns in America, not being the "right kind of Christian" is life threatening so there are people walking around in these towns faking it. This will change as technology expands and people realize that they may part of a majority, not a minority.
Technology also allows people to gain information that they never would have access too. And access is key. Show me a town where the majority of people are conservative and I'll virtually guarantee you that there is not one progressive columnist in the local newspaper, one progressive radio talk show host in the town, etc... The reason is that right wing conservatism can NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER survive if opposing views are given even half the exposure that right wing conservative viewpoints are given.
The Internet provides people with a chance to learn things they never would have learned. And right wing religious conservatives hate that because they know that in a fair fight of ideas, they don't even come in the top 3.
Time Favors the Non Religious
Every advance in science, from proving the earth is not flat to the discovery of planets to Carbon 14 testing, tends to disprove basic biblical assertions about how the Earth was created. I lack the intellectual genuity to know what future scientific discoveries are forthcoming but I surmise that these discoveries will only further disprove religion regardless of intent.
The nature of society also favors the non religious. In order to survive and prosper in this rapidly expanding and faster moving world, people will need to rely more and more on analytical skills, reason, cooperativeness, tolerance, diversity, following the facts, etc... traits that a closed society of a right wing religious dogma find abhorrent.
It's Good Religion + the Non Religious v. Evil Right Wingers
Evil religious right wingers, whether representative of fundamentalist Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, or Judaism, will try and divide the rest of us by seeking to wedge us off as the religious v. non religious. We can't let that happen.
Even if we become a non religious majority, we have a responsibility to do the following two things. One, we must protect the constitutional rights of the religious as if they were our own beliefs. Two, we must recognize that millions of people are religious but not right wing conservative and that the values of these said millions are just as superlative as the values of the non religious even if derived through different means.
All It Takes In Confidence and Resolve
To take down right wing religion permanently, we simply need to be confident and resolute. We also need the help of the religious good. Together we are a strong majority today. Even in places like Iran, the majority of people hate the right wing ayatollah creeps who run that country.
Confidence and resoluteness means not being afraid to express our values. It means we will be loud and vigilant anytime a religious right winger crosses the line. It means a minimum of life imprisonment against any right wing religious nut who advocates killing people because of not believing in his or her right wing religious dogma. It means that any ayatollah who issues a fatwa shall not be allowed to live in a civilized society. It means maximum criminal punishment against any religious right winger who commits violent felonies under the guise of religious dogma. It means we stand together, united, and speak out against right wing religion when it rears its ugly head.