This is a good day to check in on the lay of the land regarding where unions are going in the Democratic presidential primaries. Today, two important unions are hearing from the Democratic presidential candidates: The Service Employees International Union and the Laborers International Union of North America (LIUNA).
For SEIU, here's the schedule for the speeches before a large delegate gathering at the Washington Hilton today:
9:40 a.m. – 10:20 a.m., Senator Joe Biden
10:50 a.m. – 11:30 a.m., Senator Chris Dodd
1:10 p.m. – 1:40 p.m., Anna Burger, SEIU Secretary-Treasurer
1:40 p.m. – 2:20 p.m., Senator Barack Obama
2:40 p.m. – 3:20 p.m., Governor Bill Richardson
4:10 p.m. – 4:50 p.m., Senator Hillary Clinton
4:50 p.m. – 5:30 p.m., Senator John Edwards
Odd that Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel are not on the list. I wonder whether they made that call or they weren't invited...
Only four candidates are slated to address the LIUNA conference which is in Chicago: Clinton, Edwards, Biden and Richardson (Richardson is speaking tomorrow, the rest are addressing the gathering today). It's clear that Biden is likely going to address either or both of the union gathering via satellite because he's scheduled to be in both places roughly at the same time.
I'm sticking with my previous prediction (you can also see more detailed analysis of union leanings on endorsements there). The SEIU endorsement is really between Edwards and Obama, with Edwards the clear favorite of many of the leaders. Obama would have to show up at the union conference and do incredibly well, and Edwards would have to bomb, for Obama to get the nod. The best-case scenario for Obama is to force a non-endorsement of any candidate and allow individual locals to endorse on their own. As for LIUNA, I think there is a very strong sentiment for Edwards but this is a union that might sit tight for some time.
Non-endorsements, in such cases, can be very important for candidates who have no chance to get the national endorsement--it allows large, influential locals to do their own thing and, in such cases, local favorites (say Chris Dodd in Connecticut or Obama in Chicago) to sign up union leaders that they've had relationships with for a long time. And, of course, denying the full-bore support of a major union to one candidate helps others.
Last week, Sen. Clinton picked up the endorsement of the National Association of Letter Carriers (300,000 active and retired members). Today, she picked up--shocking!!!--the endorsement of the New York State Public Employees Federation (57,000 members), an endorsement that will have zero effect on the race.
So far, here is the break-down of where the endorsements have occurred (and I'm not going to list small locals or obvious endorsements by individual local unions). Edwards still leads with the most significant endorsements and the overall membership those endorsements represent:
Edwards:
Steelworkers (1.2 million)
Mine Workers (105,000)
Carpenters (520,000)
Transport Workers Union (200,000)
Clinton:
United Transportation Union (125,000)
Letter Carriers (300,000)
Machinists (700,000)
Public Employees Federation (57,000)
Dodd:
Firefighters (281,000)