The latest Newsweek poll about the Iowa caucuses will probably be discussed at length because of Obama taking a lead over Hillary, but I thought the responses to the questions on whether people intend to attend the caucuses or not was more interesting.
The link to the Newsweek poll is: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/... Here are the questions and results I thought were interesting:
- What are the chances that you will attend a REPUBLICAN Party presidential caucus where you live next January? Will you definitely attend, probably attend, probably NOT attend, or definitely not attend a Republican caucus?
BASED ON REPUBLICAN VOTERS
12 Definitely attend
25 Probably attend
36 Probably NOT attend
26 Definitely not attend
1 Don't know
- What are the chances that you will attend a DEMOCRATIC Party presidential caucus where you live next January? Will you definitely attend, probably attend, probably NOT attend, or definitely not attend a Democratic caucus?
BASED ON DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
20 Definitely attend
22 Probably attend
31 Probably NOT attend
25 Definitely not attend
2 Don't know
This is Iowa, the first state in the nation to have a say on who the next president is, the state that has assumed even more importance this year because of the front loading of the primaries and 56% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans probably or definitely will NOT attend the caucuses!!
One of the reasons we are told Iowa should go first is because Iowans take the caucuses very seriously and really get to see the candidates up close and personal. The latter may be true, given the number of trips the candidates are making to Iowa but if they take the process so seriously, why are over half the eligible voters probably or definitely staying home on caucus day? I'd like to think that in the state that gets to vote first, close to 100% of the voters would turn out. Geez, even the states that vote after the candidates are already chosen, can get 38% of their Republicans to the polls on election day.
Iowa is certainly not a cross section of America. The only reason I could give for Iowa going first, is that it is one of the really closely balanced states that could go either way in November. If a candidate can do well in the Iowa caucus, maybe that candidate will do well in November in a key swing state. But if the Newsweek poll is right, the argument that Iowans take the caucuses very seriously just doesn't wash with me.