First, the poll released by CNN today is not a Gallup poll, it was conducted solely by CNN. The results are posted
here. Notice there are no reference to earlier polls taken by the same polling organization, as polling report always does when an organization has conducted earlier polls.
Because this is not a Gallup or CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll we can't fairly compare this to other CNN polls taken earlier. Therefore, we can't say Bush's approval has dropped according to this poll, or that it is out of synch relative to where Bush's approval rating falls in this poll compared to other polls.
More discussion below the fold.
Although this poll is not associated with Gallup, a couple of statements made in another post on this subject need response.
The Gallup poll has not skewed in Bush's favor when measuring his favorability Absolutely false. One look at the pollkatz composite graph or polling report shows that Gallup and ABC/Wapo have easily been the two major polls that have given Bush his best favorability ratings. There really aren't any others even close to these two.
Gallup picked Kerry to win the popular vote in 04 Before undecideds were apportioned the last Gallup had Bush leading Kerry 49 to 47%. The apportionment of undecideds placed both of them at 49%, but that is a highly questionable barometer. In 1992 the last Gallup poll had Clinton winning by 6 points but after apportioning undecideds had him winning by 12. Clinton won by 5.5%, so obviously the pre-apportionment measure has been shown to be more reliable.
On the other poll released today: The American Research Group polls are not reported on at Polling Report, but they are graphed at Pollkatz and you can view their polling data in table form here. In contrast to Gallup, ARG has been at or near the bottom of the pact when it comes to Bush's approval rating, but their last poll broke that pattern, and it appears that they may have happened again if the CNN poll is any indication. Both Fox and Pew, two polls that tend to be in the middle of the range at any given time, have had Bush approval ratings of 33%, below ARG's 34%. With spiraling gas prices and ongoing mayhem in Iraq I had expected ARG may give Bush a new low for any poll, but it didn't happen. However, we may see another new low rating for Bush this week, possibly from Zogby, or from Newsweek, if they release a poll in their edition this coming weekend. Both of these polls fluctuate considerably, and have at times been near the bottom of the range on Bush's approval.