So, earlier today, we had a straw poll ... which General Clark won handily.
I'm going to whip out the old algorithm and assess the current scuttlebutt candidates on Daily Kos. For the uninitiated, this is a formula I developed with an astrophysicist and popular science writer from UVA (for kicks and giggles) in 2003.
It was correct in 2004. Kerry/Edwards was a losing ticket and we felt like a cross between Cassandra and They Might Be Giants.
Explanation and current results below fold:
The methods of the madness (full article at
http://members.bellatlantic.net/vze3fs8i/air/Elections.htm):
We analyzed the experience of the major party candidates for President and Vice President in each of the U. S. Presidential elections since 1804, and the experience of the two top candidates for President in 1789, 1792, 1796, and 1800 (when the candidate who received the most electoral votes became President, and the candidate who received the next largest share of electoral votes became Vice President). We discovered the following empirical formula after an extensive phase space search:
Presidential Electability = 5*(years as President) + years as U.S. Representative + 11*(years as Governor),
+110 if the candidate has been a four- or five-star general officer in the United States Armed Forces,
+110 if the candidate has been a college or university president or chancellor,
+110 if the candidate is the child of a U.S. Senator,
-110 if the candidate has been divorced,
-110 if the candidate has been a special prosecutor,
-110 if the candidate was the first adherent of a particular religion (e.g., Protestantism, Deism, or Catholicism) to be a major-party candidate for President,
-110 if the candidate was an officer of a lobbying organization at the time of the election.
Vice Presidential Electability = 4*(years as Vice President) + years as U.S. Representative + years as Governor,
+110 if the candidate has been a corporate banker,
+110 if the candidate has been a college or university president or chancellor,
+110 if the candidate is the child of a U.S. Senator,
-110 if the candidate was the first adherent of a particular religion (e.g., Protestantism, Deism, Catholicism, or Judaism) to be a major-party candidate for Vice President,
-110 if the candidate was an officer of a lobbying organization at the time of the election.
Total Electability = Presidential Electability + Vice Presidential Electability.
Years in office is equal to the number of years the candidate served in a particular office, rounded up as long as the partial year service was one month or more, unless the candidate moved directly from one public office to another, in which case the office in which the candidate spent a larger fraction of their time during that year receives credit for the year. Years of service for federal offices were verified using the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress and years of service for governor were verified using the relevant state websites. In each U. S. presidential election between 1789 and 2000, the candidates with the higher total electability won, as seen in Table 1 below. Note that the electorate doesn't appear to care one way or the other how long a candidate has served as a U.S. Senator, but we included that information in Table 1 for completeness.
So, for example, in 1980, Ronald Reagan (a divorcee and 8 year governor) ran with GHW Bush (the son of a Senator who had served for 4 years in the House) against Carter (a 4 year president and 4 year governor) and Mondale (a 4 year VP and 12 year senator). Senatorial experience was moot. However, GHWB's family legacy (Prescott had been a Senator) cancelled out Ronnie's divorce from Jane Wyman. Thus, Reagan/Bush (92) beat Carter/Mondale (80).
By the same token, Gore could have cleaned up the 2000 election if he hadn't picked the first Jewish VP candidate by a major party. Sure enough, we all know we would have successfully contested Florida if Dingbat hadn't opened his yap during the military recounts. AND let's face it, Gore might not have even needed Florida if there still weren't so many anti-Semitic democratic and independent voters in the middle of the country.
Evan Bayh 198 (son of senator and 8 years as governor)
Al Gore 118 (8 years in House ... VP doesn't count when running for President ... son of Senator)
General Wes Clark 110
Bill Richardson 80 (14 years in House and 6 as governor in 2008)
Mark Warner 44 (4 years as governor)
Joe Biden 0 (Sorry, senator)
Hillary Clinton 0
John Edwards 0
John Kerry -110 (The only thing worse than a senator is a divorced senator)
Joe Lieberman -220 (No, actually, the only thing worse is a divorced Jewish senator. Religion is a one time penalty, so Lieberman would not be quite as toxic if he ran as VP)
Russ Feingold -220 (Are you listening, Russ? You and Gore would be an okay team.)
Keep in mind that Jeb would have a lot of capital from his years as governor. So would Pataki.
And Condi Rice has been a university executive, so she could be a threat as a VP candidate.
I know, it's freaking frightening.