Dan Balz from the WaPo has an end-of-week summary about where the campaign is at. He quotes a "senior official who has played a central role in Bush's presidential campaigns" (Rove, since Karen Hughes is already on-record in the article) as saying
"But he's a much more known quantity, and [people know] where he wants to take the country. There aren't a tremendous amount of gaps you have to fill in. On both the favorable and unfavorable side, there's solid support that encompasses a big portion of the electorate."
In other Rovian words, go for your base because there is no middle.
With many examples, the thrust is comparing this run to 2000 and to the two Texas Governor races. Clearly, he's off his game and trying to be both likeable and negative simulataneously, while giving up on the Rose Garden strategery that would maximize incumbency. He has two main agenda goals: win the war on terror and fix the economy.
You know what? He's in trouble at the most basic level.
(...) The new tone threatens to rob Bush of his assets from successful past campaigns, according to some strategists. Most prominent is the easygoing personality that helped soften his image and attract swing voters who did not always agree with some of his conservative views; but his three years as president have left Americans more polarized in their perceptions of Bush as a leader.
It is not clear that the two Bushes -- the firm and sometimes-grim leader of the war on terrorism and the cheerful, wisecracking candidate the public saw in 2000 -- can coexist successfully in this campaign. By leading the attack on Kerry and doing so eight months before the Nov. 2 election, Bush has stepped from the Oval Office into the trenches, potentially denying himself what has been seen as one of the most potent weapons of any incumbent seeking reelection: retaining the power and aura of the office itself as long as possibleBush's State of the Union address in January gave him no political lift, according to polls, and so far some of the big ideas of a second term have either fallen flat -- a proposed return to the moon and from there Mars -- or remain to be outlined later.
Four years ago, the major campaign initiative aimed at his conservative base was a big tax cut; this year, his focus has shifted from economic to social conservatives with the more controversial proposal for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.
In past campaigns, Bush reached to the middle with education and compassionate conservatism. Those issues have not entirely receded, but Bush's clearest bid for the support of swing voters appears to be his leadership in the war on terrorism. "Ultimately, I think elections come down to trust -- who do you trust to best lead the country," Hughes said. "In this case, I think it will come down to who do you trust to defend the country."
(...)
That has led the campaign into attack mode, with Bush helping to lead the charge. Democrats say Bush has squandered something that will be difficult to recover. "An incumbent president has much more to lose in becoming a brawling street politician than the challenger," said Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, adding, "I think it takes him down to Kerry's level. He denies himself the credibility that comes with being president."
(...) As challenging for Bush may be the effort to retain the advantages that go with being a wartime president while trying to project the personality that many Americans found appealing in 2000. Buchanan, the government professor, said Bush is trying to have it both ways. "Those early ads of him sitting with Laura are intended to remind people of what they like about George Bush," he said. "He'd still like to get some credit for being likable. On the other hand, he's convinced that what's going to get him reelected is decisive leadership that doesn't flinch under pressure."
The SOTU was a flop, the Rose Garden was abandoned, and Junior is now trying to be all things to all people. If he's lost the fiscal conservatives and has to woo the social conservatives, he's doomed because they won't come without a price.
Kerry and the Dems are perfectly capable of losing. But with higher gas prices eating into the jobless recovery, and no jobs on the horizon, and at worst the beginnibng of another recession... with at best more of the same in Iraq and at worst a civil war, how does Bush win?