Anyway, though, this diary may end up being pointless if Democrats have no voice in redistricting VA in 2010. However, I was looking over the VA map today from the 1990s and compared it to today's map. I have some ideas that I want to share with you beneath the fold. If the Democrats can recapture the VA State House of Delegates and State Senate here are some ideas that they could consider.
Northern Virginia:
This area holds three districts, but sends only one Democrat to Congress. This is because the Republicans controlled the process in 2000, consoldating Democratic precincts in the 8th district. The key here is to make more East-West districts that take advantage of Arlington County. The key is to give up parts of Arlington County, Falls Church, and Alexandria to make VA-10 and VA-11 more competetive.
Here is my idea:
VA-10 is the first district that I mention. What I would do is elminate Winchester and the rest of the Shenendoah Valley from the district as much as possible. What I might do is have it have a claw to pick up Rapphanock County, which is the one Democratic county up in that region. Otherwise the rural, moutain precincts leave this district
I would then have it pick up the northern 1/3rd of Arlington County. It gives up Centreville and Chantilly, which go to the new 8th and the 9th.
VA-11 is radically changed. It gives up the western Prince William County precincts, picks up perhaps 2/3rds of Alexandria and all of Falls Church.
VA-8 gives up Alexandria and Falls Church, keeps 2/3rd of Arlington County, extends west to pick up Chantilly and Herndon. It would then have an offshoot following southern Fairfax, Prince William, and Stafford County to take in Fredricksburg City.
This change keeps VA-8 heavily Democratic enough to protect Jim Moran, while making Tom Davis and Frank Wolf have more competetive districts. The key is to spread the influence of inner Fairfax County, Arlington County, Falls Church City, and Alexandria City. This map also takes out Fredricksburg from VA-1. It might make sense to even have a small extension take away all of Caroline County from VA-1 and VA-7 and give it to VA-8 or VA-11.
Tidewater VA:
The key here is to take away some of the black portions of VA-3. VA-3 basically takes in every Democratic precinct in the Richmond/Hampton Roads area. The key is to also dilute the influence VA Beach by spreading it across the other distircts. In this area I concede VA-1 to the GOP and try to give every Republican county to Jo Ann Davis.
VA-1 belongs to Jo Ann Davis. Her seat becomes the safe Republican district in the region. It gives up Williamsburg and James City County. It then keeps Poquson and then picks up the most conservative precincts in VA Beach. This becomes the safest Republican distirct in the area.
VA-3 picks up Williamsburg again. It gives up the Republican parts of Henrico County. It gets all of Richmond City from VA-7. It picks up Isle of Wight County. It also picks up perhaps 1/3rd of Virginia Beach. It goes from being heavily black to just slightly more than 50% black. It stays safely Democratic enough for Bobby Scott.
VA-2 keeps Peninuslar VA, picks up some of the black precincts in Newport News and Norfolk. Having given up the most conservative parts of the distirct to VA-1, picking up more Democratic and black precincts in Newport News, Norfolk, and Hampton, it becomes more competieve.
VA-4 gives up Colonial Heights, Chesterfield County, Powahtan County, and Isle of Wight of County. It picks up some parts of Hampton and Newport News. It picks up some of Norfolk and some more conservative VA Beach precincts. It gives up Colonial Heights.It then extends farther west, perhaps all the way to Danville and Martinsville. It becomes more competetive.
Richmond Area:
Around here the key is to give Eric Cantor as many Republican counties in the suburbs as possible. What I do here is make his district entirely suburban and exurban. It gives up every friendly blue area and picks up red parts of VA-4.
VA-7 gives up all of its Richmond City precincts. It gives up Caroline County. It picks up Chesterfield County and Colonial Heights from the 4th. It becomes heavily based on the Richmond suburbs--and heavily Republican. If it needed more people I would have it run up to the DC exurbs, taking away almost all of Stafford County. This district is conceeded to the Republicans.
The Mountain Areas:
There isn't much to do here except make VA-9 somewhat stronger for the Democrats. I also take out the Democratic parts of VA-5 and VA-6. Both of those districts, I concede to the Republicans. I would have both of these districts gobble up as much territory as possible in central and southside VA. I would have it pick up Winchester and the Shenendoah areas and stop in the DC exurbus. These districts would literally run from western Loudoun and Prince William County, through the Shendendoah, down to the NC border. They would give up every "urban part" such as Roanoake City, Lynchburg, Stautan, Lexington, Charlottesville, and Martinsville.
To protect VA-9 I would have it give its most conservative counties to VA-5. I would have it pick up Charlottesville City, Albemarle County, Lynchburg, Lexington City, and Covington City. I'd have it pick up Staunton.
VA-5 and VA-6 then move closer to the DC exurbs. They both pick up area given up by VA-7, VA-10, and VA-11. I would have VA-5 and VA-6 a large megadistricts extending from southside VA and the moutnains up to the Shendendoah, stopping in western Loudoun and Prince William Counties.
As a result the Democrats are more competetive in suburban DC. Under such a map they could pick up VA-10 and VA-11. In the Hampton Roads/Tidewater area they would have a better shot in VA-2 and VA-4. It would strengthen VA-9.
This map would concede VA-1, VA-5, VA-6, and VA-7 to the Republicans. It would be theoretically possible for the Democrats to have a 7-4 advantage with such a map.
But this scenairo may be for naught, as the Democrats probably won't have a voice in the next redistricting anyway.