There is an article on the McClatchy website arguing the Religious Right is losing its hold on political power:
Today, their nearly three-decade-long ascendance in the Republican Party is over. Their loyalties and priorities are in flux, the organizations that gave them political muscle are in disarray, the high-profile preachers who led them to influence through the 1980s and 1990s are being replaced by a new generation that's less interested in their agenda and their hold on politics and the 2008 Republican presidential nomination is in doubt.
The high water mark, Steven Thomas writes, was the Schiavo bill that the RR got through Congress and that Bush, a "president who'd proclaimed Jesus his favorite philosopher" signed. Since then, it's been downhill for them.
Let's hope. More below.
Thomas cites some examples of the RR's loss of clout in the Republican presidential race:
In the presidential campaign, for example, candidate Rudy Giuliani consistently leads national polls of likely Republican voters despite his support for abortion rights and gay rights, not to mention his three marriages. ...
And all of the top Republican candidates felt free to skip a values forum in Florida organized by some of the country's top social conservatives, including Paul Weyrich of the Free Congress Foundation, Phyllis Schlafly of the Eagle Forum and Don Wildmon of the American Family Association. [Though they will attend one next week in DC.]
Among the reasons that Thomas gives:
Lack of unity and of institutional leverage (quoting W. James Antle III, an editor at the American Spectator magazine);
New leaders of the RR such as Joel Osteen and Rick Warren who are less partisan than Falwell and Robertson;
Splintering and fading of organizations such as the Christian Coalition, whose budget shrank from $26 million in 1996 to $1 million this year;
Victimization of their own success - SCOTUS upheld a late-term abortion ban, and many states have passed bans on gay marriage;
Shifting priorities from social issues to Iraq, reflecting the country as a whole.
I would add some other factors, and then some caveats.
First, the alliance between libertarians, who want a smaller government overall, and the Religious Right, who want a smaller government when it comes to secular matters, has begun to fray. Some of this is due to the success the Religious Right has had in limiting abortion, which libertarians see as an area where t he government should not interfere.
Many libertarians see abortion, for instance, as part of that vast realm where government has no right to intrude. Others were opposed to abortion or ambivalent, but were upset by the evangelical drive against the Warren Court's position on the Establishment Clause. Finally, many libertarians saw Christian conservatives as desiring to inject religion into government wherever possible. ...
Furthermore, libertarians increasingly argue that the Republican Party has been taken over by evangelicals, and they fret that the party no longer has a place for them. Ben Witherigton Blogspot 1 Dec 2006 Article by Ben Mongoven.
Evangelicals aren't satisfied, either:
The victories that the evangelical right can account for have not satisfied the grassroots. In fact, three-quarters through George W. Bush's eight-year presidency, the only solid evangelical victories have been two Supreme Court appointments (one only modestly acceptable) and Bush's consistent opposition to federal funding of stem cell research. Not only do evangelicals have little to cheer for, but both victories relied on the president's support -- they have won nothing from Congress.
and
The sense among the evangelical grassroots is that the Republican Party has used them, but only paid lip service to their goals, aspirations and values.
A sense that has only been reinforced by revelations such as those of David Kuo, once the head of Bush's Office of Faith-Based Initiatives:
In his book, Kuo wrote that White House staffers would roll their eyes at evangelicals, calling them "nuts" and "goofy."
Asked if that was really the attitude, Kuo tells Stahl, "Oh, absolutely. You name the important Christian leader and I have heard them mocked by serious people in serious places." CBS 60 Minutes 15 Oct 2006
An additional factor is that the Democratic party is, finally, coming to realize that separation of church and state does not mean that God has no place in politics, and that it is possible to demonstrate belief, and an acceptance of belief, while holding true to the separation:
Sen. Barack Obama chastised fellow Democrats on Wednesday for failing to "acknowledge the power of faith in the lives of the American people," and said the party must compete for the support of evangelicals and other churchgoing Americans. WaPo 28 Jun 2006
And the Democrats are getting it:
For the Democrats, it's a change in tactics as well—an audacious, if not quixotic, effort to win over a constituency that has been solidly Republican for a quarter century. Dean and other Democratic strategists hope to take advantage of deepening discontent with the GOP among some evangelicals. Newsweek 1 Oct 2007
The Religious Right is fighting back, but in ways that may do them more harm than good:
Alarmed at the chance that the Republican party might pick Rudolph Giuliani as its presidential nominee despite his support for abortion rights, a coalition of influential Christian conservatives is threatening to back a third-party candidate in an attempt to stop him. NYT Caucas Blog 30 Sep 2007
So, it starts to look good for moose and squirrel. But not entirely.
The Religious Right still has great influence in the primary process, where, as we've seen for many years now, the extreme elements of the parties have more control. The threat over Giuliani suggests that this influence may be waning, but it also shows that they think it will be effective in getting their troops out to vote. On the other hand, the lackluster response all the major GOP candidates are getting suggests that some Religious Right voters are getting weary of politics altogether.
But the threat of the primaries does have its impact even so:
Rep. John Murtha predicted Monday that Democrats will not be able to pass any meaningful legislation to end the Iraq war until presidential primary elections are over next year. ABC News 17 Sep 2007
It's interesting that Murtha referred to the presidential primaries, when he was talking about his colleagues in the House and some Senators. I suppose he meant that the presidential primaries are concurrent with those for lesser officers, and would bring out the right-wing committed voters.
Of more concern to me is the feeling among some of the more militant right-wing fanatics that God has commanded them to rule this country, and their failure to take it over through the democratic process (even when they cheated) is a sign that they have to take more direct action. I do not expect them to succeed, but I expect they will make a bloody mess of the country in the attempt.
This diary is getting a little long, so I'll just throw one reference to an activity that has many of us concerned: Religious Right infiltration of the armed forces:
The [Air Force] academy has been accused of tacitly and sometimes explicitly promoting evangelical Christianity, of allowing inappropriate proselytizing by faculty, instructors and cadets, and of creating an atmosphere hostile to those of non-Christian faiths or no religious faith at all. Christian Century (via FindArticles) 10 Jan 2006
and there are similar stories about the Pentagon (WaPo 11 Dec 2006, TruthOut 18 Sep 2007, etc.)
A combination of the mess that is Iraq, the culture of corruption, the revelations of personal failings, and the failure of the major GOP presidential candidates to behave as they would preach has created a sense of political fatigue among some of the Religious Right. This is abetted by the feeling common among many fundamentalists that politics is a sordid business which the pure should have little to do with. The Democrats are adding to the GOP's religious woes by - finally - offering the religious voter an alternative to the Repulbicans. On the other hand, those leaders of the Religious Right who have tasted power will not want to give it up, and are capable of doing great damage to the country as they fight to cling to it.
Gonna be an interesting time, folks.