We knew Gov. Mark Warner's entry would catapault this into a top-tier pickup opportunity, but a Washington Post poll coming out tomorrow shows just how strong his chances are.
Former Governor Jim Gilmore (one-note Johnny 'no car tax' guy) and current Northern Virginia U.S. House Rep Tom Davis are the top Republican contenders. The poll shows that Gilmore would have the edge in a primary, but the GOP also has the option to nominate their candidate by convention. As things stand today Warner would mop the floor with either:
In the Senate race, Warner leads Gilmore 61 percent to 31 percent, a 2 to 1 margin replicated in nearly every region of the state. Warner leads Davis 63 percent to 28 percent. In vote-rich Fairfax County, where Davis argues that he would have more appeal than some recent statewide GOP candidates, Warner is up by 24 percentage points over the congressman (57 percent to 33 percent).
Check out the favorability ratings:
More than 7 in 10 Democrats have a favorable impression of the former governor, as do 69 percent of independents and 61 percent of the state's Republicans. Even 4 in 10 self-described conservatives said they would vote for Warner, who was elected governor in 2001 as a pro-gun Democrat who appealed to voters in traditionally GOP counties.
Can't start out much better than that. And obviously this only helps prospects for swinging VA in the presidential race.
I'm hitting the sack but I thought I'd leave this cheery news for West Coast folks and East Coast night owls.