The mayoral race in Pittsburgh is getting kind of interesting, with many Reform Democrats vowing to vote for the Republican Mark DeSantis (former aide to Senator John Heinz) over the rusty Democratic machine interim mayor Luke Ravenstahl, a 27 yr. old who came into office a little over a year ago after the death of Mayor Bob O'Connor.
An AP story titled "Pittsburgh has serious GOP mayoral candidate for a change" notes:
30 Democratic committe members have defected to the DeSantis camp.
So why would 30 Democratic committee members go against the machine? And why is the Burghosphere (e.g., here, here, here, and here) supporting DeSantis? (There are Democrats for DeSantis.)
And can he actually win?
"The turnout and enthusiasm established this as a real race," the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorialized, "where perhaps anything can happen."
Pittsburgh blogger Chris Briem at Nullspace notes: (via a comment at Antirust)
Here is the overly simplified breakout of how the city actually votes. 25-30% will be minority votes, 40% will be the older non-minority votes. Remainder (30-35%) is probably split relatively evenly between a core Republican group and half made up of everybody else. Older voters are relatively consistent in their turnout no matter... even the city minority vote will come out. high or low turnout will be mostly determined from that third piece that is such a mixed bag. So if you think MD (or anyone for that matter) will win a city race have to fit that into how those major groups will vote.
I think it will be a stretch to get the elderly folks to vote Republican, and without them I don't see how DeSantis gets the numbers. But more stories like this getting out there and who knows...
From the AP story:
Some Democrats, like Darnell Greene, a black single mother, said they simply believe in DeSantis.
Greene was on active duty in the Army when she attended DeSantis' lectures on how to help veterans start a business at Robert Morris University a few years ago. The two stayed in touch as Greene learned to run her convenience store in the city's historically black Hill District.
"I'm actually a registered Democrat, but I definitely believe in Mark and what he's about," Greene said. "He says he's a Republican, but he has a Democrat heart because he's all about, like, people and the community and helping, too."