Those who are election junkies at DKos know that I am normally one of the poll guys around here. Last election cycle, I launched a daily diary series looking at the polling results.
With scant few polls for the 2008 races (outside of the presidential primary cycle), I am limited to examining those polls on a monthly basis.
So what does a good election junkie do in that circumstance? Catalog all of the quarterly FEC reports (yep...all 640+ of them), and read some early tea leaves based off of that. Follow me below the fold for the details.
THE MARQUEE RACES
It is, at the risk of being trite, awfully early in the race. But you can tell a little bit about where the House battlegrounds will be by who is stockpiling cash in anticipation of major races.
First, a word of caution. Some will object that the figures I cite here INCLUDE any loans that the candidate gives to the campaign. Some say this is not an authentic measure of support. I say that the money spends the same, no matter the source. Have self-funders failed in the past? Sure, but they also win, as well. Ask Steve Kagen.
Here is a listing of several marquee races on the agenda.
- (OPEN SEAT) Illinois 14: Dennis Hastert is retiring.
There are some big purses being thrown around in central Illinois, as a trio of candidates have loaded the warchest with at least $400K in the last three months. Leading the pack is GOP state senator Chris Lauzen ($536K for the quarter), with wealthy Republican dairy owner Jim Oberweis trailing behind with $422K for the quarter. The Democrats also have a dog in the fight, as scientist/businessman Bill Foster checks in with $408K. All three loaned at least some cash to their campaigns.
- NEW YORK 20: Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. Sandy Treadwell (R)
Gillibrand, who knocked off scandal-tinged GOP incumbent John Sweeney by six points last year, has raised the most formidable war chest in America this quarter, with $630K raised since July. Not to be outdone, Treadwell takes the #1 spot among challengers to sitting incumbents, having raised $481K this quarter. Both are well-connected (Gillibrand's father is well known in Albany circles, and Treadwell is a former GOP chair), so expect the money spigot to keep flowing.
- CONNECTICUT 04: Rep. Chris Shays (R) vs. Jim Himes (D)
Both cooled slightly this quarter (not shocking...the off-year 3rd quarter is arguably the weakest fundraising quarter), but both are still raising money at a rate that tells you that this will be one of those races everyone will watch in 2008. Shays ($362K) led Himes ($263K) this quarter, but both will have ample resources throughout, it seems.
- ILLINOIS 10: Rep. Mark Kirk (R) vs. Daniel Seals (D)
It might be a bit presumptuous to list Seals as the Democratic nominee--he does have a serious primary challenge. But the story this quarter is two-fold. One: Seals was the rare candidate to beat his Spring Quarter fundraising haul, upping the ante to $303K. Two: Seals put definitive distance between himself and former Clinton aide Jay Footlik in the Democratic primary battle, with Footlik lagging behind with a still-respectable $193K raised. Alas, there sits Kirk, over $530K for the quarter yet again.
- NEW YORK 19: Rep. John Hall (D) vs. Andrew Saul (R)
You want a little bit of humbling news? Here is one--2006 upset winner John Hall faces one of the most formidable challengers in the nation in businessman Andrew Saul. Saul led Hall in third quarter funding, with Saul taking in $359K to Hall's $247K. The good news? Hall's burn rate is low, and he is using his head start wisely. He has nearly a two-to-one edge in cash-on-hand.
OTHER BIG RACES: BY THE NUMBERS (In parentheses: 3Q Raised/Cash On Hand)
- ARIZONA 01 (OPEN SEAT)
Ann Kirkpatrick--DEM (217K/173K)
Sydney Hay--GOP (107K/106K)
- ARIZONA 08
Rep. Gabrielle Gifford--DEM (257K/1.12M)
Tim Bee--GOP (134K/119K)
- CALIFORNIA 04
Rep. John Doolittle--GOP (61K/37K)
Charles Brown--DEM (214K/382K)
- CALIFORNIA 11
Rep. Jerry McNerney--DEM (234K/757K)
Dean Andal--GOP (101K/351K)
- COLORADO 02 (OPEN SEAT)
Joan Fitz-Gerald--DEM (387K/449K)
Jared Polis--DEM (371K/554K)
Will Shafroth--DEM (208K/424K)
- COLORADO 04
Rep. Marilyn Musgrave--GOP (290K/1.60 M)
Betsy Markey--DEM (116K/160K)
- CONNECTICUT 02
Rep. Joe Courtney--DEM (264K/767K)
Sean Sullivan--GOP (101K/101K
- CONNECTICUT 05
Rep. Chris Murphy--DEM (223K/943K)
David Cappiello--GOP (70K/204K)
- FLORIDA 08
Rep. Ric Keller--GOP (127K/466K)
Charlie Stuart--DEM (193K/185K)
Mike Smith--DEM (93K/186K)
- FLORIDA 13
Rep. Vern Buchanan--GOP (418K/763K)
Christine Jennings--DEM (263K/215K)
- FLORIDA 16
Rep. Tim Mahoney--DEM (450K/1.14 M)
Tom Rooney--GOP (108K/337K)
Gayle Harrell--GOP (104K/250K)
Hal Valeche--GOP (86K/243K)
- FLORIDA 22
Rep. Ron Klein--DEM (509K/1.40M)
Allan West--GOP (12K/12K)
- GEORGIA 08
Rep. Jim Marshall--DEM (106K/724K)
Rick Goddard--GOP (120K/226K)
- IDAHO 01
Rep. Bill Sali--GOP (79K/109K)
Larry Grant--DEM (25K/35K)
- ILLINOIS 08
Rep. Melissa Bean--DEM (377K/996K)
Steve Greenberg--GOP (180K/160K)
- KANSAS 02
Rep. Nancy Boyda--DEM (172K/460K)
Jim Ryun--GOP (252K/334K)
Lynn Jenkins--GOP (118K/360K)
- KANSAS 03
Rep. Dennis Moore--DEM (188K/621K)
Nick Jordan--GOP (107K/99K)
- MARYLAND 01
Rep. Wayne Gilchrest--GOP (91K/414K)
Andy Harris--GOP (352K/402K)
Frank Kratovil--DEM (83K/111K)
- MAINE 01 (OPEN SEAT)
Chellie Pingree--DEM (247K/300K)
Dean Scontras--GOP (109K/55K)
Ethan Strimling--DEM (100K/159K)
Adam Cote--DEM (96K/154K)
Charlie Summers--GOP (60K/44K)
- MICHIGAN 07
Rep. Tim Walberg--GOP (140K/328K)
Mark Schauer--DEM (220K/196K)
- MICHIGAN 09
Rep. Joe Knollenberg--GOP (425K/867K)
Gary Peters--DEM (215K/202K)
- MINNESOTA 01
Tim Walz--DEM (313K/711K)
Brian Davis--GOP (81K/74K)
Dick Day--GOP (40K/79K)
Randy Demmer--GOP (37K/56K)
- MINNESOTA 06
Rep. Michele Bachmann--GOP (318K/567K)
Bob Olson--DEM (150K/130K)
- MISSOURI 06
Rep. Sam Graves--GOP (524K/755K)
Kay Barnes--DEM (326K/577K)
- NORTH CAROLINA 08
Rep. Robin Hayes--GOP (367K/521K)
Larry Kissell--DEM (80K/102K)
- NEW HAMPSHIRE 01
Rep. Carol Shea-Porter--DEM (150K/376K)
John Stephen--GOP (150K/146K)
Jeb Bradley--GOP (117K/293K)
- NEW JERSEY 03
Rep. Jim Saxton--GOP (105K/1.39M)
John Adler--DEM (229K/229K)
- NEW JERSEY 07
Rep. Mike Ferguson--GOP (244K/758K)
Linda Stender--DEM (241K/227K)
- NEVADA 03
Rep. Jon Porter--GOP (289K/770K)
Robert Daskas--DEM (146K/146K)
- NEW YORK 25
Rep. Jim Walsh--GOP (197K/456K)
Dan Maffei--DEM (130K/314K)
- NEW YORK 26
Rep. Tom Reynolds--GOP (233K/716K)
Jon Powers--DEM (117K/182K)
Alice Kryzan--DEM (94K/69K)
- NEW YORK 29
Rep. Randy Kuhl--GOP (170K/206K)
Eric Massa--DEM (149K/215K)
- OHIO 01
Rep. Steve Chabot--GOP (157K/534K)
Steven Driehaus--DEM (122K/251K)
- OHIO 02
Rep. Jean Schmidt--GOP (127K/246K)
Victoria Wulsin--DEM (160K/343K)
Steve Black--DEM (112K/256K)
Phil Heimlich--GOP (109K/218K)
- OHIO 16 (OPEN SEAT)
John Boccieri--DEM (118K/224K)
Kirk Schuring--GOP (57K/151K)
- OHIO 18
Rep. Zack Space--DEM (274K/591K)
Fred Dailey--GOP (48K/46K)
- OREGON 05
Rep. Darlene Hooley--DEM (145K/273K)
Mike Erickson--GOP (100K/100K)
- PENNSYLVANIA 04
Rep. Jason Altmire--DEM (280K/737K)
Melissa Hart--GOP (235K/218K)
- PENNSYLVANIA 10
Rep. Chris Carney--DEM (238K/589K)
Chris Hackett--GOP (247K/246K)
- PENNSYLVANIA 18
Rep. Tim Murphy--GOP (197K/606K)
Bethany Hafer--DEM (75K/53K)
- TEXAS 22
Rep. Nick Lampson--DEM (325K/679K)
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs--GOP (415K/465K)
- VIRGINIA 10
Rep. Frank Wolf--GOP (80K/230K)
Judy Feder--DEM (223K/294K)
- WASHINGTON 08
Rep. Dave Reichert--GOP (342K/339K)
Darcy Burner--DEM (306K/370K)
- WISCONSIN 08
Rep. Steve Kagen--DEM (272K/549K)
John Gard--GOP (114K/116K)
- WEST VIRGINIA 02
Rep. Shelley Capito--GOP (258K/524K)
John Unger--DEM (123K/135K)
- WYOMING 01
Rep. Barbara Cubin--GOP (11K/8K)
Gary Trauner--DEM (155K/165K)
SLEEPER DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Here are a few candidates who you might not have heard of, but who raised pretty robust sums, given the lack of target in their districts.
- Bob Lord (AZ 03)
A couple of very good quarters in a road...$142K for the quarter, and over $401K for the cycle.
- Nels Ackerson (IN 04)
Opening quarter of $134K better than Donnelly at this time in 2005, and just behind Ellsworth. Mighty impressive.
- Russ Warner (CA 26)
A solid fundraiser in 2006 who lost to the 2004 nominee: he put up $128K for the quarter, and is near $300K for the cycle.
- Tom Perriello (VA 05)
A fresh face against Dem-turned-Republican Virgil Goode, this rookie candidate put up $117K in his first quarter in the race.
- William O Neill (OH 14)
The former judge is looking to be a stiff competitor to Steve Latourette, with $102K raised in his first quarter in the race.
Those are the numbers...feel free to discuss in the comments below. Happy Tuesday!!