More info on "misplaced" 6 nukes tomorrow (Fri)?

Remember those six nuclear weapons that went missing for thirty-six hours around August 30th?  Remember how they were flown over the United States from North Dakota to Louisiana, where they sat unrecognized until a nameless hero noticed and raised the alarm?

Of course you remember!  Because it is scary as hell.   These six warheads held a lot of weapons-grade nuclear material:  around 60 Hiroshimas.  

Naturally, such a breach of protocol raised some concern around here.

Today it has been reported that tomorrow the Air Force will announce the results of the investigation into the incident.  I have not yet seen a time announced.  Perhaps that is because Defense Secretary Robert Gates has the authority to delay the press conference.

And the punishment?  It is reported around 5 officers will lose their jobs.  Yep, firings.  

Firings for misplacing nukes.  But if Iran acquires even the knowledge of nuclear weapons, Bush says, we'll have WW3.   Call me a bit cynical, but that doesn't add up.  I mean, it's not like any ex-military have ever blown anything up in this country before.

It's a good thing those cruise missiles weren't loaded up with marijuana!

We should know more tomorrow, obviously, but what punishments would you expect, and how high should accountability go up the ladder?

My thoughts and prayers are with anyone who is made the fall-person for this mess.

Update  

In the comments I was challenged to do more than "complain" and to say what I'd expect done:

I'd expect criminal charges at least as severe as if the missiles had been loaded with, say, cocaine.

Wouldn't you?

And I'd expect responsibility to go as high as whomever was reasonably responsible for implementing the security protocols, or certifying that the protocols were being followed.

But just getting fired?  That would be a petty slap on the wrist.

Note, however, that there may very well be innocent people who will get wrapped up in this.  That's why I'd rather see UCMJ courts involved.

•  Tips for transparency.

  by Data Pimp on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 02:54:27 PM PDT

  •  You think this is a "mistake" by a few airmen? I

    have a bridge to sell you, if so!!!

    Simple Error My Ass

    Nuke transportation story has explosive implications

    Someone, operating under a special chain of command within the United States Air Force, just stole a nuclear weapon.

    by FightTheFuture on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:59:09 PM PDT

    •  I expect them to announce it was a mistake

      ... tomorrow, but no I don't think it was just a mistake, nor a series of mistakes.

      It's either a mistake or a conspiracy.  And despite they effort of people to make "conspiracy" sound like crazy-talk, people conspire every day on all sorts of things.  The word really means two or more people having a secret plan to do something unlawful.

      I think it is far more easier to believe in two or more people having an intent to cause this to happen than for it to happen by accident.  

      We'd be better served by an independent investigation by Congress.

      by Data Pimp on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:09:54 PM PDT

      •  A big prize to go for; a nuke. Could really

        cement some ulterior agenda's in place.  Agenda's that are starting to unravel, as people catch on, and Nov 2008 looms over the repuglicans! and the neo-cons!  

        by FightTheFuture on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:27:20 PM PDT

•  Well,

  is not like they were that dangrous. Please don't get me wrong, it would be a total disaster if they fell into the wrong hands, even domestically.

  That said, it pretty damn hard to arm and detonate them without the proper codes and equipment. It is not like there is a big red button on the side of each with a sign saying "Press here for a really big boom".

  The codes have really heavy duty encryption on them, so it would be hard to detonate. Sure you could break them open and get at the fissile materials, if you wanted to live the last week of your life, but short of that, they would not be that dangerous.

  by Something the Dog Said on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:06:03 PM PDT

  •  Maybe the codes were on the plane.

    by cskendrick on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:19:52 PM PDT

    •  Um, doubtful.

      Not that they were on the plane, they are, but there are several sets of them, you have know which set is the encryption for today. You also have to be able to get both sets together, since it is set up so no one person can arm them.

      by Something the Dog Said on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:22:04 PM PDT

      •  That's not really the point...

        The question is : how did they "accidentally" get on a plane with so many safeguards built into the process by  which nuclear weapons are handled ?

        People I've talked to who have some knowledge of this area find that inconceivable. They might be wrong...

        by Troutfishing on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:31:28 PM PDT

        •  Sometimes highly unlikely things happen

          It just does.  It doesn't mean a conspiracy, it just means a sequence of blunders take place that lead to a larger blunder.

          The problem is that because the sequence is so unlikely people have a tendency of seeing a pattern and therefore assuming that the result had to be have been intentional.

          The Pearl Harbor attack provides a good example.  One general orders the defensive aircraft centralized, where they can be more easily hit by an attack.  A radar signal gets dismissed because it happens that a flight of friendly aircraft are due in around the same time.  The carriers just all happen to be out of port.

          A bunch of mistakes and errors pile on top of one another with some supporting coincidences, and there isn't the one person in the sequence who notices something is going wrong and can raise the alarm, and bam!  Successful surprise attack.

          One can go through history and dig up any number of highly unlikely outcomes that have happened without any underlying conspiracy or plan at work, just an unlikely (but not impossible) series of mistakes and coincidences.

          by Northwatch on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:40:27 PM PDT

          •  The whole point of protocols is to prevent

            a sequence of blunders from leading to a larger blunder.

            Sorry, I just don't buy the explanation that this was a fluke resulting from a series of mistakes.  

            36 hours.  6 weapons.  How many checks and double-checks?  How many multi-person teams?

            by Data Pimp on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:59:29 PM PDT

            •  Look at your own statement

              36 hours.  6 weapons.  How many checks and double-checks?  How many multi-person teams?

              That's the point.  That would be true if the people down the line knew they were handling nuclear weapons.  

              Everyone in any organized situation must have at least once seen where standard operating procedures were not followed entirely because it was a routine situation that everyone has done a dozen times.  So instead of doing procedures A through F, we'll do A, do a half-assed job on B, not pay any attention to C, skip D and E and go straight to F.

              Yes, you aren't supposed to, but everyone has seen it done.

              Classic example: how many people, before they start driving their car, check all the tires, check the lights (including brake lights), make sure the mirrors are in the correct position, et cetera and so on, all the things that, according to all those driver training videos, you are supposed to do.

              Anyone done it recently?  Anyone?  Of course not.  Almost all of us hop in, turn the key and zoom off.   Maybe adjust the seat and mirrors if the spouse had driven the car after you, but that's about it.  And why not; nothing went wrong the other few hundred to thousand times we've done it.

              In this particular case, the guys in the bunker screwed up big time.  Massively.  Incredibly.  But because they screwed, the resulting series of mistakes didn't require massive screwups, only slackness.  No one was expecting to be dealing with nukes, so why should they be extra vigilant?  They were loading unarmed missiles that they'd done hundreds of times before.  The pilots were flying a mission with unarmed weapons that they'd done many times before.  The receiving base was expecting the same sort of flight with unarmed weapons that they'd done many times before.

              by Northwatch on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 06:30:25 PM PDT

              •  Servicemen and women aren't that unprofessional

                That's the point.  That would be true if the people down the line knew they were handling nuclear weapons.  

                So there's a point in the line where nobody knows what they're handling?  I don't see that.  I see lots of places where people should be cognizent of what they are handling.  And ahead of that point, where what is a nuke turns into "just some weapon", its not realistic to believe there aren't multiple checks, multiple people, "upstream" from that point.

                And were talking about 6 weapons here.  And 36 hours of misplaced weapons.  That's a lot of checks, a lot of time, for people to have recognized a failure in protocol, if unintentional.

                Everyone in any organized situation must have at least once seen where standard operating procedures were not followed entirely because it was a routine situation that everyone has done a dozen times.  So instead of doing procedures A through F, we'll do A, do a half-assed job on B, not pay any attention to C, skip D and E and go straight to F.

                This isn't any old organized situation.  This is the handling of nuclear weapons, arguably the highest responsibility area of any service.  These are people selected and trained for the most important job.  Not just anyone gets to handle nukes.  Are you saying they aren't specifically trained?  Are you saying the protocols aren't requiring two-person checks at multiple points?  Are you saying these people don't realize the consequences of sloppiness?  I think our men and women in uniform handling nuclear weapons aren't just doing a half-assed job.  Nor do I believe that some implausible combination of sloppiness on the part of men and women of discipline resulted in this mess.

                Classic example: how many people, before they start driving their car, check all the tires, check the lights (including brake lights), make sure the mirrors are in the correct position, et cetera and so on, all the things that, according to all those driver training videos, you are supposed to do.

                Those aren't people who are trained and disciplined to handle nuclear weapons.  You're comparing apples to oranges.

                In this particular case, the guys in the bunker screwed up big time.  Massively.  Incredibly.  But because they screwed, the resulting series of mistakes didn't require massive screwups, only slackness.  No one was expecting to be dealing with nukes, so why should they be extra vigilant?  

                You're assuming there is some rubicon that is crossed and after that point everyone downline is not paying attention to what they're loading up on planes.  Is the protocol for weapons handling that weak, or that our men and women in uniform so lazy they don't pay attention to what they carry around or load up on a plane, or fly to the destination???  

                They were loading unarmed missiles that they'd done hundreds of times before.  The pilots were flying a mission with unarmed weapons that they'd done many times before.  The receiving base was expecting the same sort of flight with unarmed weapons that they'd done many times before.

                That's a lot of lazy people, not paying attention.  Sorry, I just don't buy it.

                by Data Pimp on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 08:29:40 PM PDT

          •  Idiot!! Bu$hitCo + Missing Nuke(s) = Conspiarcy!

            Very high probability, and more likely, then, "gee, Gomer mussed up, Sarge is gonna be pissed!!"

            You are a FOOL to think, and hope, this is just a glitch, a mistake, and not a conspiracy when you are dealing with a W-80 warhead, a weapon the size of a fire-hydrant, weighing 290 lbs. and can take out a city with a yield up to 150,000 TONS of TNT!!!

            Cripes!!  The sun may also go nova tomorrow, but you know what, I doubt it, really, really, really doubt it!!!

            by FightTheFuture on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:07:37 PM PDT

        •  Hmmm

          Of all that I've heard of this incident, this is the one thing that stands out. One does not accidentally load an aircraft. It is not even a one person job. And this means more than one person with a line badge or access handled these weapons.

          by MahFellaMerkins on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:48:27 PM PDT

    •  No, they wouldn't be

      The crew didn't know they had weapons on board in the first place, so there'd be no codes on the plane.

      Second of all, the command release authority of US nuclear weapons is a very robust system.  "Dr. Strangelove" to the contrary, a rogue single officer can't start a nuclear war because the whole system is built on check and counter-check to prevent exactly that scenario.

      It's the reason the command centers for the silos and the subs have two separate launch keys carried by two separate individuals that have to be used simultaneously in two locations too far apart for a single person to operate at once.

      In the strategic bombers, the command signal has to be sent remotely and relayed to the plane.  The codes aren't on board at all.

      by Northwatch on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:33:13 PM PDT

      •  My concern is the bombs may have been stolen

        for delivery someplace and, lucky us all, the thieves were stopped.

        tinfoil du jour.

        (takes bow)

        by cskendrick on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:38:23 PM PDT

      •  I don't wanna feed paranoia

        But I was an SP in the USAF, assigned to Titan missiles.

        It's the reason the command centers for the silos and the subs have two separate launch keys carried by two separate individuals that have to be used simultaneously in two locations

        That is true, sort of. In Titan installations, the keys were in a box.

        too far apart for a single person to operate at once.

        You should see the gizmo the MCCC (the officer in charge of the silo) had rigged up to insure the missile launched, even if the deputy were not there.

        The Titans were decommissioned in the late 1980s.

        Sweet dreams.

        by MahFellaMerkins on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:31:03 PM PDT

      •  Robust

        I would think that the storage and possible transport of these things would also have some robust safeguards, but they flew hundreds of miles and for all those hours, no on even missed them!  Coincidence, mistake, diabolically purposeful - doesn't matter to me.  Those things were flying around the country without a chaperon and that's just CRAZY!

        Oh, and I'd like to be taking bets on how senior the "officers" are who will be fired....

        by luckylizard on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 05:43:29 PM PDT

  •  They *were* dangerous-- the material inside

    ... was extremely valuable, whether for a dirty bomb or nuke.  Remember, this is the magical pixie dust that Bush wants to prevent Iran from getting.  And we misplace it for 36 hours?

    And yeah, if some idiot just took out the nuclear material treating it like it was harmless, they'd die.

    But seriously, are you saying that a person with the know-how couldn't have turned those 6 bombs of material into, say, 2 other bombs?

    I can't believe you're saying they weren't dangerous.  You don't really believe that, do you?

    by Data Pimp on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:53:44 PM PDT

    •  Reread your comment -- apologies

      Your disclaimer in the second sentence just didn't fit the rest of your comment.

      by Data Pimp on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:55:27 PM PDT

  •  Rip off the fancy control panel

    and just connect the two wires together...
    I bet its not much harder than that to make them go boom.
    Control units on dangerous equipment is normally there to prevent them doing something nasty, remove it and rewire and the inner guts works.

    by Ferrofluid on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:02:51 PM PDT

    •  Nuclear weapons

      require a timer to set the shaped charge explosives around the fissile material to go off in exactly the right way. No control unit, dirty bomb yes, megaton yield, no.

      by MahFellaMerkins on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:33:18 PM PDT

      •  Oh, and, attention OSI/NSA/FBI

        In no way have I said anything that cannot be learned on the tubes, so don't come by the house. If you do, bring your own damned coffee.

        by MahFellaMerkins on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:39:33 PM PDT

      •  I doubt the bad guys would care

        as long as it caused panic.

        by Ferrofluid on Fri Oct 19, 2007 at 05:56:31 PM PDT

  •  Wrong hands? You mean like Bu$hitCo and the neo-

    cons???   Hmmmmm.....

    by FightTheFuture on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:10:38 PM PDT

  •  Detonate?? Hmmmm.... what if the ones who stole

    them also had the codes and know how to detonate them?

    This is an unprecedented breach in protocol, loading these things onto an aircraft; flying them across the country.  Of course, there's that problem with them leaving with 6 and landing with 5.  Oh, don't worry, that story was "corrected" later on.  Of course, let's not be worried also about rouge elements within the Air Force, it's not like the Christianistas have taken over the academy... oh, wait.  Well, at least we know we can trust our Government leaders.  Look how upstanding, open, honest Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitcz, Pearl,  Rice, etc. have been.... oh wait.  

    Well... I think we may well be fucked here.  Don't worry though, these things are perfectly safe.  They are "pretty damn hard to arm and detonate them without the proper codes and equipment."

    You must be a salesman's wet dream.

    by FightTheFuture on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:16:50 PM PDT

•  wasn't it on purpose?

  Like the "Mother of All Bombs" that was tested shortly before the invasion of Iraq, this "accident" was maybe sabre-rattling for Iran?

  by MsButterworth on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:10:23 PM PDT

  •  There was actually some talk that

    the Louisiana base was a staging area to send the weapons into the Iraq/Iran theater, but it was never reliably verified.

    Six airmen connected to the incident have also died mysteriously, hinting at a possible coverup.

    by Randgrithr on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:26:16 PM PDT

    •  Beware that claim !

      I've done a debunking of it here

      If there's new information or I've made a mistake, I'm all ears.

      by Troutfishing on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:34:46 PM PDT

•  And what do you think should be done?

  Well?

  It's all fine and good to complain that something isn't punishment enough, but unless you can suggest what can be done instead, well, complaining ain't worth much.

  About the only thing that could be done worse is charging them with actual crimes and giving them jail time.

  by Northwatch on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:26:38 PM PDT

  •  I'd expect criminal charges at least as severe

    As if the missiles had been loaded with, say, cocaine.

    Wouldn't you?

    And I'd expect responsibility to go as high as whomever was reasonably responsible for implementing the security protocols, or certifying that the protocols were being followed.

    But just getting fired?  That would be a petty slap on the wrist.

    Note, however, that there may very well be innocent people who will get wrapped up in this.  That's why I'd rather see UCMJ courts involved.

    by Data Pimp on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:47:06 PM PDT

•  Very bad. I suspect there's a Broken Arrow

  here, and we may well witness its use before the sociopath leaves office.  Something really got fucked here, and I will never believe it was a "mistake".  Not with this gang of criminal traitors.

  Interesting info here and here and hereand here.

  by FightTheFuture on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 03:53:31 PM PDT

  •  Good post.

    
    Thanks for the links. The statement of the B-52 pilot was as revealing as it gets.
    
    

    It's interesting to note in light of this that the 'errant' nuke flight took place just seven days before Israel's strike on Syria's 'nuclear facilities', and coincidentally after Newsweek published:
    
    

    One official who pushed a particularly hawkish line on Iran was David Wurmser, who had served since 2003 as Cheney's Middle East adviser. A spokeswoman at Cheney's office confirmed to NEWSWEEK that Wurmser left his position last month to "spend more time with his family." A few months before he quit, according to two knowledgeable sources, Wurmser told a small group of people that Cheney had been mulling the idea of pushing for limited Israeli missile strikes against the Iranian nuclear site at Natanz—and perhaps other sites—in order to provoke Tehran into lashing out. The Iranian reaction would then give Washington a pretext to launch strikes against military and nuclear targets in Iran.

    
    

    But any attempt to connect the dots is considered tin-foil hattery here, and so I'll leave it at 'interesting to note'.
    
    

    by two roads on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:40:31 PM PDT

    •  Thanks. Oh, interestring link here, also...

      Someone, operating under a special chain of command within the United States Air Force, just stole a nuclear weapon.

      From the same guy who wrote the first link I listed above..

      by FightTheFuture on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 05:28:02 PM PDT

•  Don't Assume an Innocent Explanation.

  This breach was so shocking that I think some tinfoil is justified.

  My guess is that what we're seeing, and all that we are going to see, is a classic "limited hangout," in which something either grotesquely evil (e.g., BushCo trying to swipe a few nukes for false-flag attacks, nuking Iran etc.) or, at best, so grossly negligent that people should be going to the hoosegow, is being covered up, with a few low-level zhlubs losing their jobs, being threatened with death or worse if they tell all that they know, and the public being assured, through the regimes lapdog media, that all is under control, Jesus reigns in Heaven and George W. Bush in the White House (or vice-versa) and we can all resume shopping.

  by Kargomania on Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 04:21:41 PM PDT