Brownback out. who's next? Why we should care- (w/poll)
Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 07:20:05 AM PDT
Believe me, I'm no Sam Brownback fan by any stretch of the imagination, but I do find it interesting that he would decide to get out now. I think it's important for us to follow what's going on within the dark side because it will affect strategy on ours.....
From MSNBC:
Republican Sam Brownback will drop out of the 2008 presidential campaign on Friday, people close to the Kansas senator said Thursday.
Brownback, a longshot conservative contender, had trouble raising money to compete in the race. He is expected announce his withdrawal in Topeka, Kan.
He raised a little more than $800,000 in the third quarter of this year, his lowest quarterly amount since entering race. He has brought in more than $4 million overall and is eligible for $2 million in federal matching funds.
If he's eligible for 2 million in matching funds, why not stay in a while longer, run some ads supporting the causes he cares about (causes so far to the right they make McCain look liberal), and see what happens in Iowa?
Probably because the only reason he ever got in the race in the first place was to increase his national visibility as he prepares for a run for governor in 2010:
Brownback, who is in his second term, had said in his first Senate campaign he would serve no more than two terms in Senate. He is widely expected to seek the Kansas governor’s office in 2010.
I think there is a fine line between entering the race to "shape the dialogue" and entering solely fr your own selfish political purposes.
Two questions now:
1-- Does this effect anyone else substantially?
2-- Does it have any role on the Democratic primary?
My thoughts:
1-- This helps Mike Huckabee tremendously. While rumors still abound that the religious right might consider a third party candidate should the GOP nominate not a real conservative, I think they will eventually realize they have a candidate already in the race: Mike Huckabee. He's basically their goldilocks candidate-- Rudy is too liberal, Romney is too phony, McCain is too unreliable, Thompson is too horrendous, Huckabee may be just right. Iowa voters on both sides of the aisle tend to enjoy surprising the conventional wisdom, and I could see Huckabee pulling off a huge upset in Iowa late just like Kerry did. As Iowa approaches, I would think some of the others on the GOP side are likely to bolt the race-- how much longer can Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, et al continue? That race is essentially down to Romney, Rudy, McCain, Huckabee, and Paul (yes, there are articles being written about how Paul could win New Hampshire....), but realistically, Rudy, Romney, McCain, and Huck. If the GOP decides to stay pure in its principals, and if they decide to vote not based on "who can beat a democrat" but who best represents their "values", Huckabee could pull it off. I think realistically, he's the only one who may benefit from this latest news, if anyone does at all on the GOP side.
2-- As far as the good guys go, not sure it makes much of an impact, if at all, except that it might hurt Joe Biden a little bit since Brownback co-sponsored Biden's resolution (non-binding, of course) that sought to created a soft partition in Iraq. It's non-binding, but it is the most bipartisan resolution we've seen in Congress on Iraq recently, getting over 70 votes in the Senate....... Other than that, this probably doesn't affect us much, except if my thesis on Huckabee is correct. If the GOP veers hard to the right by nominating a Southern Baptist minister with very strong views on abortion, stem cell research, gay rights, and religion, that may increase the moderate slice of the independent electorate at play for us in 2008. Huckabee is an excellent speaker, who comes across as a well intentioned, nice guy who doesn't have the venom we've seen from the right in the past. In order to beat him, it will be crucial to have a democratic nominee willing to point out how extreme his views are, not try to cow-tow to those views. In other words, we will need a candidate willing to make clear distinctions with him, not try to play for the same votes.
I worry that a Huckabee candidacy would lead HRC and her advisors to conclude that they need to play on his turf to get votes, as opposed to pointing out their differences, showing the country how intrusive and extreme his views are (and how more than 60% of the country disagrees with him), and driving moderate independents in force back to our party. We need a candidate who will be willing to be tough and delineate our differences clearly.
I'm still hoping and praying that candidate will be Al Gore, but my hopes are starting to fade just slightly after the last few days of news. I'm trying to believe still that he'll get in and fight the fight on behalf of our children and our planet, but he's looking awfully comfortable not in the race.....
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