Three Miami Republican House seats in play: the analysis starts

All it takes to start the ball rolling is a week of radio ads -- in Spanish, no less.

Political analysis has started to percolate now that the Democratic establishment in Washington has written a check for a week of radio ads in Spanish criticizing our three Republican members of the U.S. House from Miami-Dade County

Well, they are proven opponents of healthy kids, now that they've voted to uphold the Bush veto of the SCHIP bill. So it must be pretty obvious that they're vulnerable in the '08 election. We're not the only ones to notice this. It also hit the thinkers at the Swing State Project, which analyzes "key races around the country," according to the banner on its web site.

So, we are now key races. That's a change of pace.
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Also posted on www.miami-dade-dems.blogspot.com

People will be looking. Maybe even the Miami Herald will have to cover the candidates and their activities in the Herald's home county. I have been in the Herald building a few times -- a vast place teeming with staff and work -- and then while working on Dave Patlak's campaign for FL-18 (soon-to-be-ex Ileana Ros-Lehtinen) last year I wondered why they never could spare anyone to cover our events. What were they all doing, if not covering congressional races.

Ah, later as election day drew near, it became clearer, though not satisfying. The editorial would come out saying that Congress is held in low esteem, but they'd endorse the incumbents anyway. Just a second: Isn't that a non sequitur -- that's Latin for Dummkopf-style thinking.

Anyway, the key races will have drama. In politics, that's big swing, meaning a lot of people seem to be about to change their minds.

This long analysis in Swing State Project rests on a report in The Hill earlier this week about the three Congressional districts. And here's the drama and the nut graph in the SSP article:

"Could one, two or all three of these incumbents end up being the next Henry Bonilla, the Texas Republican who got trounced by Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in a district with a similarly red PVI (R+4.2) last December? Florida Democrats are eager to put the three incumbents to the test and are actively seeking challengers."

Oh, yes. As they say, let's "take these districts for a spin."

GLOSSARY Item: PVI, I'm told, stands for Partisan Voter Index, a way of measuring how strong one party or the other is in an electoral district. The numbers for the three are:

   * CD 18-- R+4.3
   * CD21-- R+6.2
   * CD25-- R+4.4

Meaning they seem to be pretty reliably Republican. Until, like Henry Bonilla in Texas, the other side trounces his R+4.2.

We must note that the Democrats still have no announced candidates for the three seats. The Hill's article goes into two possibles: Raul Martinez, former mayor of Hialeah, against Lincoln Diaz-Balart in CD-21, and Joe Garcia, chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party and head of NDN's Hispanic Strategy Center, against Mario Diaz-Balart in CD-25.

We won't draw the parallel with Dick Cheney leading the search for a vice presidential candidate to run with George W. Bush, but that is local Democratic Chair Joe Garcia "actively seeking" someone to run for Congress ...

THANKS to: Michael Calderin, for tipping me to the SSP item. Michael, running for State House District 119, has a long comment on the SSP link reminiscing on his run against Mario Diaz-Balart last year in District 25. Highly informative.

•  Cuba is what drives those voteres to the

  Republicans. Cuba dominates their political views and they won't vote for Democrats, although the GOP's attitudes toward immigrants might enable the right candidate to break through and win.

  The problem with CD-25 is that it includes suburbs in the Naples area. It includes ultra-Republican Collier County, which contains Naples. Although the majority of Naples is in the heavily Republican 14th district, the Collier County precincts make the 25th heavily Republican. It includes the outer suburbs of Miami-Dade County. When you add those to the Naples-area precincts it becomes too Republican.

  CD-18 is probably more possible. It includes parts of Miami Beach and other liberal communities on the coast next to Miami. It includes parts of Bal Harbor and Surfside, which are heavily Democratic.  I think that it also includes the University of Miami, parts of the SW suburbs, and Cutler Ridge.

  The district extends to the Florida Keys, which compromise Monroe County. That area can swing either way, though Gore and Kerry probably carried Monroe County. I think that a Democrat picked up the state house district for the Keys in the 2006 election and that Bill Nelson and Alex Sink probably won there in their races.

  For a Democrat to win he/she is going to have to win the Bal Harbor, Miami Beach, Surfside, the precincts around Miami University, and the Keys. I'm not sure, though, if there are enough votes to overcome the heavily Republican precincts of Little Havana.

  by oceanstar17 on Fri Oct 19, 2007 at 03:58:05 PM PDT

  •  No one even votes

    Didn't these districts just get around 100,000 votes in 2006, a few of the lowest turnouts in the country. If we can GOTV, Democrats have a shot of picking up these seats.

    by Progressive America on Fri Oct 19, 2007 at 05:14:41 PM PDT

    •  Well

      Of the two I think that FL-18 is the more realistic one.

      by oceanstar17 on Fri Oct 19, 2007 at 07:48:45 PM PDT

      •  Ros-Lehtnen is pretty well liked

        From what i understand.  It may be the better on paper, but I am not sure it is in reality.

        Personally, the best shot is Raul Martinez, though I think these districts may still be a few cycles away from being competitive.

        by consdem on Fri Oct 19, 2007 at 08:59:28 PM PDT

      •  No.

        FL-25 is not so heavily Republican.

        Collier County is 2:1 Republican, yes, but the portion that sits within 25 isn't nearly as bad.  The city of Naples falls into FL-14.  The portions of Collier in 25 are largely lower income and working class.

        Additionally, a good number of people in Collier are registered Republican simply to vote in county elections.

        by Michael Calderin on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 09:24:47 AM PDT

•  Well, the First Thing

  we need is to find some candidates for these races.  The local media won't spend much time covering races where there is no opposition candidate.  The DCCC had better get its act together, and soon.

  by The Maven on Fri Oct 19, 2007 at 04:02:32 PM PDT

•  You guys are inspiring!

  I love what you are doing to turn Florida Blue! Look forward to your next post!

  by blueintheface on Fri Oct 19, 2007 at 04:08:46 PM PDT

•  2008 is the Year for Florida!

  We have a huge opportunity to make massive pickups in 2008 in Florida. It might be our last chance for years, so I hope we can take advantage and put strong challengers everywhere!

  by Progressive America on Fri Oct 19, 2007 at 05:16:05 PM PDT

  •  Yes, and the Hispanic/Cuban community in

    Florida is more ready to vote Democrat because of the Republican's anti immigrant campaign and their refusal to Debate in the Miami Spanish language debate.

    by immigradvocate on Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 04:39:50 PM PDT